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September 2018

[Sunday Evening] Florence Still Expected to Hit Southeast U.S.; Isaac a Threat to Lesser Antilles; Olivia to Hit Hawaii

   Posted by Levi at 5:31pm on September 9, 2018

Latest Information on All Storms from the National Hurricane Center




  • Aniel says:

    Now…I hope everyone in North Carolina and other areas gets help and asks for help to evacuate out of any danger zones and have safety!

  • Anonymous says:


  • Chris says:

    Sitting here on Topsail Island, hoping she starts taking that northeasterly turn as she grows stronger.

  • Scott says:

    I hope everyone in North Carolina gets through this!!!! better get gas and batteries now !!!!! going through Irma last year has no fun at all !!!!

  • Bob says:

    Thanks for your great work!

    I notice the GFS models (Sunday, Sept. 9, 5pm EDT), are noticeably north of the NHC track. Any idea why this difference/bias exists between the two sets of data? Have the GFS models been more accurate than the NHC model in the past?

    • Levi says:

      The NHC is not a model. It is the official forecast created by professionals synthesizing data from observations and many models together, including the GFS. The official forecast tends to outperform any single model, on average.

  • RitaEvac says:

    Carolinas and Virginia better be watching out for any stall after landfall. Could be same setup as Harvey event in SE TX

  • Peter says:

    Potential worst-case for the southern Appalachian mountains..flash flooding, landslides, river flooding. The EC rainfall numbers are basically unprecedented..hope that changes.

  • Spring Griffin says:

    Going home to union county nc (that’s in the path) I will be leaving Carolina beach nc. I pray we can get through this. I remember going through Hugo when I was 18.not looking forward to this ride.

  • Nancy Catania says:

    Levi, thanks for all you do! Question: is climate change and melting of Arctic ice have anything to do with warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and the high intensity of this storm?

    • Anonymous says:

      They’ve been melting the Antarctic ice since the 50’s when they declared the Antarctica Treaty.

  • Nancy Catania says:

    Levi, thanks for all you do! Question: is climate change and melting of Arctic ice have anything to do with warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and the high intensity of this storm?

  • Stefano says:

    This guy has his desk at NHC with his name on it ready, great job as always bro

  • Ken says:

    Thanks Levi! We’re planning on cutting our OBX stay short & will retreat north Weds morning.

  • Troy says:

    Nice job. I’m hoping for a little more of a technical explanation, so that the why questions are answered during the course of sharing your personal thoughts. Thank you

  • Jackie says:

    Good explanation, Levi. Much appreciated. It’s going to be hell week for the States. I’ve already signed up to work FEMA.

  • Daniel says:

    Florence’s satellite appearance has continued to improve quite
    markedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16
    high-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between
    2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter
    due to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern
    eyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of
    lightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has
    expanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become
    more symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear.

  • jacob says:

    it will make landfall in sc maby

  • okeetee says:

    From my educated expert guess it looks to me that this Hurricane is going to come on shore in the Myrtle Beach area or points further north, cleaning out that Biker Gang, pot smoking, tattooed freak town, bringing in lots of Federal money and Federal troops. South of Charleston, SC this will be just a wind and rain event, with winds less than 25 miles per hour and rain fall less than 5 inches with probably very few power outages. The worst thing a person could do is evacuate inland where this storm is going to stall or slow down and drown everything in sight! If someone was inclined to evacuate there best bet would be to head toward Florida and stay close to the coast. Now, have I nailed this thing down to a science or what?

    • Alchemist says:

      Nope you haven’t..

      • Okeetee says:

        Gee, I hate being right all the time! They rescinded the evacuation notice before noon today. Oh, and the Weather Channel girl mispronounced “Beaufort”. It’s Beaufort, SC and Bowford, NC although it’s spelled the same!

  • Michael Rosenblum says:

    Levi, why do you think the NHC has stuck with a more GFS based track when European model has been (I think) much more accurate in the last few years. I live right around where European model predicting landfall on midnight version. Here’s to hoping GFS is right. . .

    • Lisa says:

      If you are anywhere near where this storm will make landfall, I would get out now. Katrina forced a 28 ft. storm surge in 2 miles from the coast all along the coast of Mississippi. 2 miles. This storm surge will probably be every bit as bad as Katrina, maybe worse, as the shallow shelf of the Carolinas is very similar to Mississippi’s coastline. Also, I see where other posters have said they will head out Wednesday morning from the danger zone. With millions of people trying to get out, tomorrow morning at the latest will keep you from getting stuck in monstrous traffic jams. The way this storm is moving, effects will start hitting the coast Wednesday morning. Take it from someone who has been through Camille, Betsy, Katrina, Rita and Gustav. Get out now! And be sure you have a couple of 5 gallon gas cans in your trunk.

  • Gerry says:

    Are so many hurricanes/storms at the same time a record? Does anyone know what the record is for simultaneous storms and hurricanes?

  • Santina says:

    Hi Levi…when will you post today’s update?

  • Daniel says:

    I have to post that the GFS 12 noon future millibar forecast has 899 mb at peak on Florence which correlates to very high winds in the Atlantic of over 180 mph, considerably higher than at the 6 am GFS! Everyone prepare early and stay safe!

  • jacob says:

    now the say va will get some

  • Scott says:

    Can you discuss what the new player is regarding the disturbance in the northwest caribbean and how that will figure into Florences movement. Also, can you discuss the effect of the disturbance, where it’s going and if will spawn into a new tropical system as NHC has 50% formation within 5 days and entering into the GOM where LA and TX could be a target.

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