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September 2018

Tuesday Evening Update on Hurricane Florence and Other Storms

   Posted by Levi at 6:42pm on September 11, 2018

Latest Information on All Storms from the National Hurricane Center




  • Anonymous says:

    I’m in Charleston, SC and I don’t know anyone who has actually evacuated yet.

    If the storm stalls and wanders down the coast, what will be the effect on its intensity? I see GFS and euro show it taking almost up to 5 days out to actually make landfall in SC. Would it be weakened by then or still present a significant threat?

    • Liz says:

      My question, exactly. I can’t wait for an explanation.

    • Levi says:

      A stalling storm near the coast would most likely weaken, but only gradually if it’s over water instead of over land. It would be a significant threat to any location it finally moves ashore, and remember that the eye doesn’t need to move ashore for dangerous weather to impact the coast, as the storm is quite large.

    • Another Anonymous from SC says:

      I’m in Mt. Pleasant SC. We are also still arguing to go or stay, and our neighbors are staying. I appreciate your question! Stay safe!

      • Jim C says:

        How bad has flooding and wind damage been at your place from past storms. If it damaged your dwelling or caused you to be stranded. I’d be leaving tomorrow while you still can. If Flo drifts further south it the south, it’s going to catch a lot of people by surprise, and I wouldn’t want to be on the road with them Thursday.

        Regards, Jim

      • Geoff PR says:

        > “I’m in Mt. Pleasant SC. We are also still arguing to go or stay, and our neighbors are staying.”

        Hurricanes get more lethal the longer the time it has been since one struck land. People forget how dangerous they actually are.

        It’s complacency.

        If you’re arguing about whether or not to evacuate, please *EVACUATE*…

        • Another Anonymous from SC says:

          Yes, our family voted, and we are heading to Atlanta in the morning. Please stay safe everyone. Thank you very much!

  • Daniel says:

    Great update for all!

  • Kevin says:

    Great, great work, Levi. Most informative set of information I have found on a daily basis. Thank you very much.

  • Eli says:

    Thanks for the update Levi. Hopefully the latest GFS/EURO runs don’t come to pass with the clockwise loop into the coast. Bad for damage potential and flooding, and prolonged storm surge. Maybe the shear will help keep Florence down below Cat 4 as she nears the coast.

  • Rick says:

    Thanks for a very informative video. Florence is quite scary to say the least.

  • Anonymous says:

    HI, I was just told about this Facebook page and I am impressed. I am wondering about how bad
    Florence will hit the Delmarva Penniisula. I keep looking at this system and thinking bad tropical storm, but not sure. I have a daughter that lives there and I am worried. What do you think?

    • Jim C says:

      Not Levi, but the Delmarva Peninsula shouldn’t experience more than tropical storm force winds. The biggest issue is going to be freshwater flooding. If she lives in an area that’s flooded on the past, even from local thunderstorms, she should consider leaving soon.

      Regards, Jim

  • Antelope says:

    If both the European and GFS models are both showing the stall and southward track down to Charleston, why does NHC and weather channel still show the storm hitting Wilmington and heading inland?

    • Dustin says:

      NHC doest jump when it sees changes in the models. If it did that it would be all over the place when it comes to predictions. It takes a formula of models and comes up with the cone.

      • Jim C says:

        Indeed, and the models are going to change quite a bit between now and Thursday morning. If the GFS and Euro both continue to shift then warning further south and west will be issued but not because of a couple model runs.

  • John says:

    Awesome discussion today Levi! Thanks for all that you do to provide us with the latest tropical weather information.

    Do you think this storm will play out the same way hurricane Joaquin did in 2015 where the storm moved WSW and the islands of the central Bahamas took a beating for a number of days? Could we potentially be looking at a strong category 4 or category 5 storm where the eye could lash the barrier islands of the US coast for 48 hours or more while tapping into the warm waters of the Gulf Stream? The current conditions seem plausible for this worst case scenario to occur and I am curious about your thoughts on this.

    • Jim C says:

      John, do you mean the central Bahamas taking a beating from Flow. I supposes it’s not impossible, depending on how far south it actually moves and what the intensity is if it does so. As of Tuesday night, that’s not a likely possibility. I doubt we’d be looking at a Cat 5 near the Barrier Islands either. A Cat 4 maybe, but more likely a Cat 3. As Levi said, however, the exact intensity probably isn’t very important compared to how close you are to the southerly or northerly side as it finally comes ashore.

      Regards, Jim

      • John says:

        Jim C, Thank you for your comments and outlook. I understand what you are saying and I know exact intensity really doesn’t matter much right now as this storm will be very dangerous regardless. I didn’t intend to say that Flow will possibly track across the Bahamas. I was comparing the possibilty of this storm acting the same way that Hurricane Joaquin did, where a blocking high caused the storm to stall and turn WSW and stall again. If my words were unclear I apologize for that. Furthermore, I know no two storm systems are alike as weather is forever changing in real time. But in the past we have seen storms slow down and wobble along the coastline so I was just curious of we will possibly see the same behavior with this storm. THANKS!

  • Rick M says:

    Great job, as always!

  • Zuzu says:

    Why don’t the Outer Banks have much of a surge showing on the map? I thought that they would be in the red zone.

    • Jim C says:

      Zuzu, I imagine because the current track shows the storm south of the Outer Banks. That’s not a favored direction for really high storms surge compared to head on or or the north.

      Regards, Jim

  • fran bertrand says:

    lets all hope for the best …

  • Jackie says:

    Great analysis, Levi. Thank you. Get some rest!

  • Joey B (Katrina Survivor) says:

    My senior year in high school was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The last category 5 hurricane to hit land. I have family in Biltmore Lake, North Carolina they are not worried about Flo because they are safely in the mountains. I am concerned for North Carolina who do not know what could happen. Those people do not speculate, they are arrogant.

  • Max Z says:

    Hi, I had a question regarding traveling. My family has a planned trip to go to Atlanta Friday night to see a concert. We would be traveling from Aiken, South Carolina and then back from Atlanta to Aiken Saturday morning. What is the timing for rain in this area and do you think it would be safe for us to travel?


  • Bob S says:

    Hi Levi. Your reports are comprehensive, insightful, and understandable. I rely upon your analysis. Thank you for doing this. Especially right now. Thanks again.

  • Joey B says:

    North Carolina media needs to be more specific, & stern. My family is still saying it will be nothing.

    • anonymous says:

      Joey, I live in the NC mountains and trying to prepare in case we do get hit with catastrophic flooding and power loss. Water was selling fast at the grocery store yesterday. If local weather reports get more specific for this region, hopefully your family will be on alert.

      • Alan O says:

        Florence is going to cause fresh water flooding from excessive rain. 10+ inches of rain running off hills will collect in low lying areas that are not flood risks according to any map. I say this from experience because our house (Vermont) was flooded by Irene 7 years ago. Water coming off hills near our house was trapped by the roadbed running by the house, overwhelmed the 3-foot culvert, and flooded our yard with 4 feet of water. We ended up with 8 feet of water trapped in our basement after the water receded.

        Here are my lessons learned:
        – Look at the topography around your house and imagine a couple inches of rain an hour falling for several hours (days?). Keep reading if you are in an area where water might collect.
        – Figure out an evacuation route and where you can stay if your house floods. With Irene, the flooding was very localized, so we were able to stay with friends on higher ground.
        – Pack irreplaceable items in plastic bins over the next couple of days for a quick exit. You will be moving stuff in the rain if you must leave. Also pack a bag with several days’ worth of clothes. Move things you are leaving behind to the highest level in the house.
        – Check with your insurance agent. Most homeowner’s policies do not cover flood damage. Find out how they would like you to document damage if you start cleaning up before the insurance adjuster arrives. Remember that most policies do not cover flood damage, so it is imperative to get the water out as quick as possible.
        – Leave before your house floods. If you are thinking “We might flood” it is time to leave. Flood waters will rise very quickly. Our house flooded less than an hour after the water started rising. Turn off the gas and flip the main electric service breaker off on your way out.
        – If you are worried about your basement filling with water, go rent a trash pump for a week today. It will cost you a couple hundred dollars but can save you thousands if your basement fills with water. We were able to pump most of the water out of the basement within 8 hours of it flooding because a local construction company dropped of a 4-inch trash pump for us to use. The key to damage limitation is get the water out as fast as possible.
        – If you have a fuel tank in your basement try to block it in place if possible. It is going to want to float in the water and your cleanup will become exponentially more expensive if it ruptures.

        If you flood it is important to get the moisture out of the house as quick as possible to prevent mold issues. Flood waters are nasty and when the waters recede what is left behind will make you ill. Wear gloves, don’t touch your face with your hands, and use lots of hand sanitizer. If you are pumping water out of your basement, check for foundation damage. Water in the basement can stabilize a damaged foundation. You may need to frame in support before removing all the water to prevent further collapse.

        Take pictures of the damage and then start removing anything that was touched by flood waters from the house. Carpets, dry wall, and insulation should be removed as soon as possible to limit mold damage. Leave windows and doors open and get air circulating. Anything touched by flood waters should be thrown away. This includes garden vegetables.

        • Barb says:

          Thinking and planning ahead for yourself/helping neighbors makes it easier in the storm.
          Great advice!
          Barb from Florida

      • Joey says:

        I have family in Biltmore Lake. They have never been thru a hurricane themselves before.

  • Nina says:

    Hmm the most destructive hurricane in 21. century? We will see. I am sure the coasts of Myrtle Beach, Sunset Beach or Holden Beach will be devastated the most. I will watch the live cams from Myrtle Beach until they stay alive.

    I am from Charleston and don’t know anyone who has actually evacuated yet, same as somebody wrote in comments. So it’s really weird.

  • Barb says:

    My advice:
    1-freeze large containers of ice(blocks)-keep in containers and use to stuff your fridge/freezer after taking out unnecessary items. Fill coolers with items you want short term so you DON’t open the freezers or fridge. We have temperature monitors for our appliances so we could monitor whether to fire up the generator or not.
    >>After 3 days/no electric and minimal generator, our food remained cold/ice worked and kept it all safe.
    2-Fill your tub and any items you can with water. All (drinking) use pitchers etc, just fill it. Line a garbage can (washed) with double liner bag= all can be used to wash up etc if no water
    Get creative. You have running water now, all you want.
    Stay safe!
    Barb in Florida
    >>A HUGE FAN of Levi’s, following for a long time>BESTEST info anywhere

    • Joey B says:

      After Katrina, I knew a lot of people who had no flood insurance. None of them returned to the lives they had before the hurricane. A hurricane makes a person poor, or poorer without flood insurance, which is the only salvation after a hurricane’s flooding. Now there is Go Fund Me, which did not exist after Katrina.

  • william Jenkins says:

    Any chance any one can comment on any possible flooding
    up the Chesapeake bay NEAR OR AT Annapolis Maryland?

    We are thinking that since the storm is coming ashore in NC and then projected to head south, we think not, but want to see
    if anyone has any knowledge or storm surge models that tell us otherwise.

    Everyone be safe the next few days

    Thank you

  • Dennis says:

    If any of you are wondering whether you should evacuate . . .? One year ago I was in Southwest Florida and witnessed first hand the devastation of Irma. Don’t even think about it. Pack up and evacuate now!

    And for those of you inland . . . take care with flash flooding. If you’re in North Carolina go to this link to find out whether you’re apt to be in a flood zone.

    I wish all the folks in Florence’s path the best of luck.

    Levi thanks so much for your 5-Star analysis. Keep up the great work. It is greatly appreciated.

  • Treva Williams says:

    When will be your next update? We’re in Charleston, SC and considering heading to Greensboro, NC now that the forecast has shifted. What’s the latest we could leave so that we aren’t driving through windy and rainy conditions?

  • Joey B says:

    My thougts are, Greensboro will get flooding torrential rain. Maybe Tennssee would be better? Does anyone agree?

  • Jackie says:

    Greater than 50% of people who died in Katrina were elderly. Please don’t forget your elderly neighbors and relatives. Check to make sure they have everything they need to prepare for a hurricane and make sure they are in a safe place.

  • Wendell says:

    If you leave, a good trick to see if your freezer thawed during an intermittent power outage. Freeze a cup of water and place a quarter on top of the ice. Place it in the freezer. When you return, if the quarter is still on top of the ice, then nothing thawed. If the quarter is at the bottom of the ice, then power was out long enough for your food to spoil. Quarter frozen in the middle of the cup? Your call.

  • Sharon says:

    Levi, been reading your posts since the hurricane season last year. Love your work. Just wanted to tell you your video is linked on!

    That’s awesome!

  • Daniel says:

    From the latest update!

    Although the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more,
    Florence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as
    it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
    rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
    area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

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