Will there be impacts for Pensacola?
Best analysis show Dorian going up the East Coast. That could change. Too early to tell yet.
We’re still not certain whether or not Dorian will enter the Gulf of Mexico, so we can’t say anything for sure about potential impacts on the gulf coast right now. That would still be several days off.
Good analysis Levi ! I think one of the more interesting aspects of the progression of the cyclone to the northwest are the effects of windshear which are evident in the asymmetry of the overall superstructure most notably in the southwest quadrant. In looking at the windshear forecast and the upper level steering currents together it appears that there is some additional windshear just north of the eastern end of Cuba as well as another ridge along the east coast of Florida from the area of Lake Okeechobee heading right up east coast of North America to the Canadian Maritimes. The persistence of this sheer may help to keep the eye wall from making landfall in Florida especially as the Bermuda High continues to weaken as it is forecast to.
read the map
Actually the European model (ECMWF) now agrees with my take that keeps it off shore and moves it north,……a weakening Bermuda HIGH makes all the difference
thats a big storm!!!!
Well, stay safe you Floridians and especially you lovely Bahamians. FEMA is ready in the US. In fact, it has a budget surplus this year. Be kind to each other, check in on the elderly, disabled and animals. This too shall pass.
Thanks, Levi! This is one cagey storm.
Great analysis, love the detail. Been a weather geek my entire life, but only made it as far as MET 101 in college. Only point of contention, and its an extremely minor one, is your pronouncement of the ‘Abaco Islands’. Having spent some time down there in the 90’s, I am fairly certain it is pronounced ‘Ab-UH-Co’, not ‘Ah-Bah-Co’. Other than that, great work, and I enjoy watching you break down complex weather into an interesting, understandable, and relatable format.
I believe you are right – my bad!
FSU engineering grad here, living in Tally. Thanks not just for the basic forecast information but the education via your detailed analysis of the other pertinent weather systems and how they may affect this storm.
First time on you site….Is there audio to go with it??
You can go to Tropical Tidbit’s Youtube channel to watch and listen to video updates, as well.
Here’s the link to tonight’s update https://youtu.be/ozRRjF7MC7c
Thank you Levi great analysis as always everyone please stay safe out there for I’m in the storm’s path also but please be kind to one another check on your neighbors, family, pets, and the disabled and always remember God is great!!
I have a feeling you’ll be saying Abaco a lot over the next few days. It’s pronounced ABBA (like the band) Ko. It does not rhyme with tobacco.
Living here in Ft Lauderdale it looks like the 11pm advisory is trending slightly more in our direction. I believe Friday we will be putting up our storm shutters, and moving stuff indoors, as much as I would rather not. After that, the weather might be too nasty to get it done. Better to be ready, than not ready.
Thanks again for another informative update! Un-nerving to say the least! Concerned for my parents in the Naples area as well for us in eastern NC, down the road. Wishing all in the path of this monster storm stay safe.
Great presentations, Levi. I learned about your site from the Canetalk forum, which has been my go-to source for actionable information on hurricanes for something like 11 years, since Hurricane Gustav. Yours has now become a second go-to site for me.
As long as we’re quibbling over pronunciation of things, your pronunciation of Caribbean as “Car-IB-ean” caught my attention. The preferred pronunciation is Car-i-BE-an,” in both American and English usage, but most especially among the peoples of the Caribbean: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/pronunciation/english/caribbean
Minor point, admittedly, but it did stick out in your otherwise excellent presentations. Keep up the great work (and this from a former Gator!)
Could this be a Category 5 at landfall in Florida. I always was told that Labor Day Hurricanes are the really bad ones to watch out for.
Levi…wake up lol. Looks like it shifted South and some saying greater Cat 5 potential?
Thank you very much Levi
I like your quick to the point analysis with proper detail and reasoning.
Although I’m not in the probability cone at this time (happy about that), I am looking forward to the updates.
Keep up the great work.
When will there be clarity about whether Dorian will impact the Panhandle? And do you have a sense of what the timing would be in the event of a Panhandle landfall? Thanks!
Thank you so much for your great analysis’s! Just an FYI, Abaco is pronounced abba-co, not aback-o 🙂 I look forward to your update for tonight as I live in Nassau!
Love the technical analysis, keep it coming!
I Googled the Dropsondes and they cost $700 apiece and sink. One use device. Your Tropical Tidbits is the best and I have been follow it for a few years now. I’m in Charleston, SC and watching your site. Great job and very informative.
Have you ever considered posting your blog update in the morning so we have “fresher” information to start our days?
Excellent write up!
After looking at the model forecasts. I was wondering if you had any statistical information on the model that was the most accurate in the past? I noticed you mentioned the European model on the You Tube video. So I was wondering if that model was the one you had the most confidence in?
Thunderstorms, extending west of Dorian, are moving west toward the northern Bahamas and will also be moving to the north of the northern Bahamas!
Dorian will reach some waters at about 29.9 Celsius in about eight hours or 120 milres.
Category 5 potential?
Need more Levi today, Friday 8/30.
My now dead ancestors always told me the Labor Day Hurricanes were always the bad ones. This thing looks to be a Cat 5 monster at landfall y’all!
Great science and knowledge based analyses without the hype.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Dorian makes it threw that trough and makes its way here in N.E.
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