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August 2019

[Wednesday Night] Dorian Strengthening – Increasingly Dangerous Threat to Bahamas and SE US

   Posted by Levi at 9:16pm on August 28, 2019




  • Wendy says:

    Absolutely the most informative coverage I’ve found. Been watching this site since relocating to SC back in 2016. I truly appreciate your in-depth explanations and non-sensationalized descriptions of these weather systems. While it’s selfish of me, I do hope you never abandon this site, Levi!

  • Michael Krebs says:

    Levi, this is from tuesday night.

  • Shelley says:

    Thank you, Levi. I so much appreciate your perspectives on the storms.

  • Angela says:

    I really appreciate your analysis videos and maps! One of my favorite resources when I am nervously obsessing over storms. I was really hoping we would get a peaceful year after the horror that was hurricane Michael, but I suppose it just isn’t meant to be. I hope the panhandle gets to sit this one out at least.

    • Grady says:

      Levi you explaining this storm is like I’m right there looking at it you do such a great job there’s nowhere on this internet you can go and get more information I’ve been a subscriber 4 over 7 years thank you for being so professional and informative!!

  • Gene Conrad says:

    The most informative and non-sensationalized coverage I have seen! Thank you!!

  • Matt says:

    Levi–your insight and explanations are fantastic. I really enjoy coming to your page. I live in Saint Augustine, FL and am hoping for the further south scenario.

    • Jams pockstaller says:

      Levi would make a great NFL play by play announcer, all the info you need without any fluff or over drama

  • Sandra says:

    Levi, do you have an idea how wide t’s form will be when it makes landfall?

  • Meghan says:

    Thanks Levi!!
    I had to watch the video twice, the first time I was distracted by noticing his great penmanship/hand drawings as it was pointed out on Twitter…… this makes me curious…. do you have multiple takes of your videos before uploading. Or is that talent natural 😉

    • Donna McGill says:

      I thought I was the only one mesmerized by the circles and lines!

    • Levi says:

      Haha – I’ve been practicing for a long time, so I can usually do it in one go.

      • HeavySetTropics says:

        Hello Levi,
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  • J says:

    I’m speechless. A day and one half ago there was great hope it would hit the DR and break up over the mountainous terrain. Now it’s going to be a major hit for SE – South Central Florida.

  • Marilyn Spooner says:

    Thank you very much for your video and info! Please keep us updated.

  • Robert Meister says:

    Hello Levi,
    Excellent site and work. I especially enjoy your evening tropical system informational video.
    Just a small suggestion today as I live in The Bahamas You mentioned the threat to The Bahamas and SE USA. The Bahamas stretches roughly about 600 miles from top to bottom, roughly the same distance as from Anguilla to Trinidad, more or less the size of the whole Lesser Antilles. The current threat from Dorian is primarily to the Northern or NW Bahamas. Perhaps you could specify what region of The Bahamas has the highest threat as in SE USA.
    Thank you in advance for your consideration.
    Keep up the outstanding work.
    Robert Meister

    • Levi says:

      Hi Robert,

      Yes, you’re right, I really should be specifying the northern Bahamas when I talk about that set of islands. Stay safe out there!

  • Danielle Hollywood says:

    Thanks Levi!!

  • Jonathan says:

    I’m confused unless I’m missing something. This was posted Wednesday night but with Tuesday’s data.

  • Dale J says:

    Thanks, Levi, appreciate the insights and commentary. I don’t know why people are saying that this is based on Tuesday’s data, it’s clearly based on the storm going north of Puerto Rico, which is did on Wednesday.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    An anomaly in rainfall on the 365 day on the AHPS map is located at dry Myrtle Beach at only about 20 inches south of Myrtle Beach International. While at the Green Swamp eastward to Smith Island the total is over 80 inches. Taking into account Stephen Schneider ideas of Environmental Biology and Global Change, it would appear that Hurricane Dorian has at least a chance of bringing rain to the dry area of south of Myrtle Beach and points outward. This will be exciting to see the history of rainfall (Benoit Mandelbrot) having influence on future occurrences.

  • Daniel Okesen says:

    The GFS midnight run came in farther north.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Waiting on ECMWF global midnight.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    24 hr ECMWF midnight updated. Long memory by Mandelbrot-
    Abstract: Long memory plays an important role in many fields by determining the behaviour and predictability of systems; for instance, climate, hydrology, finance, networks and DNA sequencing. In particular, it is important to test if a process is exhibiting long memory since that impacts the accuracy and confidence with which one may predict future events on the basis of a small amount of historical data.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Other dry areas are just off shore melbourne, fla. extending north to savannah and then along the savannah River. These areas on the 365 day precip map look primed.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    The ECMWF midnight just lined up with the 365 previous day rainfall map
    and is farther north.

  • Jessie says:

    Hey Levi! Just wondering if you still live in Florida? Thinking of YOU. 😊. Be safe! Thank you for all you do! Fantastic information.

    • Levi says:

      I am still in Tallahassee – thanks for your concern! I’ll do my best to heed my own advice if Dorian comes here 🙂

  • Wyatt says:

    What are the possible impacts for Pensacola, Florida?

    • Levi says:

      It’s currently too soon to know if Dorian will even enter the Gulf of Mexico, so we can’t know about potential impacts there yet.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Levi, I was wondering if you could post the 365 days previous rainfall from today, before the storm approaches Florida to compare with the 365 days after Dorian moves in. The AHPS has a print option too. So I printed 365 days previous rainfall and the website allows changing of the background maps. Allendale, SC is running only 30-35 inches in the previous 365 days. Thank you.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    So between the Salkehatchie and Savannah Rivers is Allendale, S.C. and from there east and west of Allendale, and southeast to south of Hampton is the general area of lower rain in that area. Other areas of lower rainfall on AHPS are from just east of Melbourne to Savannah and Myrtle Beach. This is going to be fun to see how the storm affects areas with lowest rain, except I would especially hope those areas are well prepared! Thank you

  • Tonym says:

    Levi, can we expect your updates after 9pm everyday? I most certainly agree your updates are incredible very informative very easy to understand and your knowledge is incredible I’m looking forward to future updates

  • Alan says:

    I have a house near Hope Town/Marsh Harbor, Abaco Bahamas. As it draws closer to that area I’d like your opinion if you think it passes to the NE, SW or directly over that location. A miss of 50-75 miles either direction makes a BIG difference for this low lying area. Anxiously awaiting your next update.

  • Tony says:

    If I’m looking at the imagery correctly, there is an upper level low to the NW of Dorian that is moving nw, generally in the same direction that Dorian is tracking. I believe I heard 2 days ago that this low was supposed to wander westward or southwestward.

    Is this one of the factors that helped Dorian avoid Puerto Rico and DR forcing it more NE and continuing that motion till present? If so, can this upper level low be actually stronger than anticipated causing Dorian to not make that wnw turn and continue running the same path as that low if it didn’t weaken? Thx

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings
    across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
    Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in
    the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing,
    and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC
    model cycle.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    This is a great website! This is what people need.

  • Floridagirl says:

    Hope you post soon tonight…

  • Steve Treutel says:

    I’m a Camille and Katrina survivor from Bay St. Louis, MS. Started following WU back in 2004 when it consisted mainly of weather enthusiasts.I have come to appreciate your insight and thoughtful commentary over the last two years. Glad I found you. Keep up the good work.


  • Thelmores says:

    Howdy Levi! Howdy to all my old Wunderground friends!

    Wunderground class of 2005!

  • Dustin says:

    Hello Levi, I’ve got 2 questions. First as Dorian nears florida what happens if the high along the gulf coast remains strong? Second, is it possible since dorian is so strong and well developed as the northern high weakens as shown Dorian’s tall storm tops can reach up and be persuaded by the high over the southern gulf possibly being steered around or slowly to the WNW??

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