[Saturday Night] Dorian an Extreme Hurricane – Remains a Threat to Southeast US

   Posted by Levi at 7:51pm on August 31, 2019


78 comments

   

Comments

  • Danielle Hollywood says:

    Thanks Levi ☆!

    • Yrral says:

      Goes 16 and Goes 17 satellite are the beast, but people like Levi can only tame the beast of information they spit out, the eyeball has expanded in size, almost by a half, and it will be fuel by the jet stream near Florida,with it super hot energy ,expanding, it Dvorak intensity

    • Patrick Simms says:

      You are hands down the best and most informative expert out there.. I really appreciate your technical prowess, excellent communication skills and overall great workmanship. Thank you very much..
      Kindest regards,
      Patrick

  • Wyatt says:

    Thank You Levi! BTW: Are you Okay? Your voice sounded a little stuffy/sick in this video. Just concerned about you.

  • Ryan M Johnson says:

    You are the best at explaining all this. Everyone should be thankful for what you and your site provides. Thank you Kevin.

  • Ryan M Johnson says:

    Auto correct changed your name to Kevin from Levi – sorry

  • Rebecca says:

    Best explanation for this storm. Very helpful. Thank you!

  • J says:

    Dorian is a slow poke. My heart aches for the Bahamas. There literally is no high spot on those scruffy islands. At this point, it looks like the US may escape the worst. Too soon to tell. But, the Northern Bahamas will get kicked to the ground. Wish I could help those people.

    Thanks again, Levi, for tonight’s analysis. Dorian must be driving meteorologists to drink.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    What a great update.

  • Joseph says:

    Hurricane Andrew happened my senior year in high school. My family was huddled in a master bathroom, and the roof came off the house.
    I will never forget that. I have had a deep fascination with hurricanes ever since.

    • Daniel says:

      Joseph

      I’m from southeast Louisiana and I understand the fascination with hurricanes. They are beautiful heat transferring machines. They are destructive but necessary to Earth’s system of systems. The Hurricane Center has done very well over the years with predicting the paths of hurricanes, but the intensity predictions are harder. I would love to know what little bit of information we’re missing that causes a Katrina to lose intensity from a 5 to a 3 shortly before landfall or cause a Dorian to intensify so rapidly while surrounded by dry air.

      • Joseph says:

        Katrina’s tidal surge didn’t loose intensity, it still was a Cat 5
        water level, the winds diminished to 127 m.p.h.at Louisiana landfall. Katrina pulled, & pushed 28 feet of water with waves reaching 35 feet as documented in debris found at that level. Entergy had a boat stuck in their transformer substation at 35 feet high. I saw pictures of it. Dorian creates his own atmosphere as a strong Cat 4, moistening the air, the dry air is around it, not going into it. The Cat 4 hurricane is keeping the dry are away it seems. Katrina destroyed the Shell Oil MARS Drilling platform, they thought a whale landed, or crashed on it, it was flattened. A Shell rig boss told me that.

  • Jess says:

    Thank you Levi for no-nonsense, candid, insightful info, especially for the way you break down complex analysis into digestible hypotheticals. Wishing you a bright future and grateful for your site. Keep it coming!

  • Hi Levi,
    Yes, I agree with some of the other comments. Your tropical forecasts are refreshing. Professional, well explained, not overwhelming and easy to understand.

    You should be working for the NHC. There are a couple (no names mentioned) weather organizations that only like to “scare” people and focus more on drama and hype and like to use words like “monster” when referring to tropical entities. It is shameful and totally unprofessional of them. It’s all about the ratings.

    Thank you for what you do and please continue!

  • Anonymous says:

    Until I see that West turn to NW I’m not buying this saving turn

    • Tony says:

      I agree. All my life the NHC has been saying powerful cat 3+ storms can make their own rules and not do the expected. I hope the NHC practices what they preach.

  • Miko says:

    Watching forward speed. Models are predictions, what really matters is what is actual. All it’s gonna take is 50 or so miles of westerly travel to make all the difference. Models may not have the ability to sample and account for such subtleties. Nature is all about subtleties. “Sensitive dependence on initial conditions”.

    • Tony says:

      I think the models are all weak in many areas, ex. lacking the Speed to recalculate the effects of an eye wall replacement position, nor being capable of knowing why it happened in the first place. 2 are the models factoring in the effects of an upper low traveling in front of the hurricane of which it’s in and outflow next to mountaintops can have a huge impact with the trailing hurricane. Does the model know to factor in the dry air sucked in between 2 mountainous land masses if the hurricane is to its north?

      If these models rely on human input, they are useless. They should be mathematically perfect just as they were predicting the weather on Mars for The successful Rover Landing far in advance. I don’t think they used a weather balloon

      • Miko says:

        Tony, right. I noticed a slight (or should I say subtle) change in the narrator’s voice (with all due respect). Frustration? Of having to present imperfect forecasts to a demanding public. All models are intrinsically imperfect. Even the most mathematical, ontologically austere. But Nature is not ontologically austere, it’s complex, “chaotic”. Especially fluid (atmospheric) dynamics. Mathematics is after all just a symbolic language we have learned to use to MODEL Nature…Not even NASA can completely sample/ “cover” Nature. Remember those two lost space shuttles? No, we are all limited. We are all condemned to”wait and see”. Yes, even NHC. Every year tropical season proves it to the otherwise oblivious general public. Thank you Levi, btw. All due respect

      • clay says:

        It doesn’t matter how perfect the math is when you are operating on very limited data.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    This hurricane is leaving behind tons of evidence, but the trail of where it’s going seems to melt with the snow a little. Also, previous evidence (rainfall data) is quite interesting at AHPC. Enjoying the comments.

  • Jimster480 says:

    Loved this video, the best coverage I have seen of this storm yet. I shared it with my friends and family.
    I will follow you from now on.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Mention of the trough from the Lubbock, Texas office on the South Plains:
    .PREV DISCUSSION… /issued 218 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019/

    DISCUSSION…
    Upper level high pressure continues to be centered west of us out
    near the Four Corners. The center will slowly edge eastward through
    mid-week becoming nearly centered over West Texas before the center
    shifts westward once again by late next week. Well to our north, a
    shortwave trough will traverse our meridian along about Tuesday
    morning followed by another by Friday evening. All tropical cyclone
    influence will remain well clear.

  • From NWS Forecaster Ward, Amarillo, Texas for a perspective on upper level dynamics:

    Hurricane Dorian continues to dominate the headlines as it slowly
    approaches the FL/SC coast. Dorian is not expected to enter the
    Gulf of Mexico as it gets caught up in the stronger westerlies
    aloft. The main features of interest for the Panhandles in the
    overall synoptic upper flow is the persistent high pressure over
    the Four Corners area and the slightly more progressive flow over
    the northern CONUS. GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian are all in decent
    agreement with gradually shifting the upper high east over the
    Southern Rockies by Monday as a quick moving shortwave moves
    across the northern plains through Tuesday. 500mb heights will
    begin to increase some over the Panhandles as the high shifts
    east, with a brief weakness in the heights Tuesday into Wednesday
    as the shortwave traverses north of the high. A cold front
    associated with the shortwave is progged to move through the
    Panhandles Tuesday evening and overnight.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    As usual, there are a lot of discrepancies in the expected rainfall totals for Dorian depending on the area and model.

  • Norris says:

    Solid analysis especially with respect to the timing aspects of the approach of Dorian to the northern Bahamas and US East Coast and the eventual weakening of the ridge of high-pressure in the southeast. There seems to be a little doubt that high pressure will retreat,….but how quickly this occurs and how fast Dorian approaches (as its forward progress continues to slow) spell the difference between a catastrophe and some windy rain squalls for the East Coast of Florida. Some wind shear along the edge of the North American continent may also aid in the disruption of the hurricane and push it northeast but the Northern Bahamas, unfortunately, will probably experience Cat 4 hurricane winds and storm surge for an entire 24 hours.

  • phil says:

    Levi…are you aware Drudge report links to your spaghetti models? Your server must be blowing up!

  • phil says:

    Correction…it’s not on your server, but it is your map- your name is in upper right. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDXJ3WeVAAENimw?format=png&name=small

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    In from the National Hurricane Center:
    In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF
    track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next
    couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours.
    As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little
    west during that time frame.

    The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours
    necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical
    Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although
    the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
    focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
    distinct possibility.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Now, Hurricane Dorian will approach Abaco from the east.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Seeing widely scattered to numerous small thunderstorms from outer bands of Dorian moving into central and east Florida from the ENE.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    From Melbourne NWS, 532 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019
    Some of the ltst guid, and especially
    the European 00Z model, has shifted the track a little west. This
    necessitated a Tropical Storm Warning for the Treasure Coast
    south of Sebastian Inlet. Direct effects in the form of tropical
    storm gusts, periods of heavy rain and erosion can be expected,
    especially along the coast into Wed due to the slow moving and
    strong hurricane just offshore.

    It is important to note that all of east central Florida remains
    in the track cone of uncertainty. Due to the trend in model track
    guidance

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    From Jacksonville,Fla. NWS:

    Long fetch of East to Northeast flow from the Atlc Ocean will
    continue to push scattered to numerous showers and embedded storms
    from the coastal counties of SE GA/NE FL this morning into inland
    areas this afternoon once again with the usual fade over inland
    areas after sunset, returning to scattered showers and isolated
    storms along the coastal counties through the overnight hours.
    Main impacts will continue to be some locally heavy downpours with
    Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) still close to 2 inches.

  • Anonymous says:

    I’m sitting here in Ft Lauderdale staring down the barrel waiting for the “turn” of the century

  • Seth says:

    Turn of the century is right. They must know something we don’t, but they are so overconfident IMHO about this magic 90 fast then 120 degree turn up the coast. Is it me? I’m over in Tampa, and this thing still has me worried. Can’t imagine the people 200 miles away in SE Florida staring at this thing as it drags and slows for days waiting for the miracle turn. Good stuff, but the next 24-48hrs are going to be the story as theory turns to reality possible.

  • Joseph says:

    Dorian is now an Extreme Cat 5 Hurricane. She’s gonna turn slowly, not a mighty turn at all. I remember hearing years ago that strong hurricanes turn slowly. A strong hurricane can’t turn quickly. And, steering currents doesn’t effect them like smaller category hurricanes.

  • Tom Cavalancia says:

    Your updates are really good. Thanks for keeping us well informed.

  • Anonymous says:

    After Andrew, news stations on hurricane coverage became overly serious to many people emphasizing no matter what the forecast said to prepare for the danger and people would prepare and put up their shutters and get their water and evacuate and then it would turn away and people began to make fun of the media… This time the media seems to be embarrassed of that happening again and it’s pushing the fact that it’s going to turn and now the public is reacting the opposite way saying they’re not going to take it serious…

  • Chris says:

    1410z both hurricane hunters are in the exact same place within the storm at the exact same time (500m difference in altitude).
    After that last unexpectedly impressive pass through the eyewall that provoked a rare special update from the NHC, it appears nobody can believe the readings (180-190kt winds in SE quad is insane!) and wanted to verify instrumentation accuracy.
    Only a 1mb difference in pressure between the readings.. that verifies quite an explosive burst in strength over the course of the past hour.
    Let’s hope for some shallow water upwelling to tame this beast. Bad news if it maintains the forward momentum!

  • Wyatt says:

    Dear God, aircraft recon found winds of 200 MPH!!!!!! PRAY FOR BAHAMAS PLEASE. THIS IS A HISTORIC STORM…AND NOT TO MENTION GUSTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE BAHAMAS, GO UNDERGROUND NOW!!!!!

  • Ramon Martinez says:

    I find the soundings from the atmospheric dropsonde mission recently just completed very interesting. NOAA9 Mission #27 into DORIAN soundings 3, 5, and 36 (west of Dorian) don’t indicate any southerly component at all throughout the column. At some point, if Dorian is to turn northward, there must be some southerly component to drive Dorian north. Inertia would seemingly play a large role as well, supertankers and powerful hurricanes don’t turn on a tight radius.

    • Chris says:

      The physics of mass and inertia still apply? The stronger the storm gets, the less influence the hurricane should be subjected to in terms of steering. 170mph cat 5 was nowhere in any of the models. Unless a strong and dominant high pressure system magically appears on the other side of Florida to inhibit forward motion, I don’t see enough of an influence to lift pull the storm into any void that ‘should’ form to the north to allow the forecasted turn?
      No supercomputers on my desktop. Will leave this one to the experts.

      • Ramon Martinez says:

        The laws of physics always apply. These laws are the basis for the model algorithms. Two key components for any model output are a) the initial conditions from which the math starts crunching, and b) the actual math formula used in each model (in simple terms, the choice and weighting of the various factors)

        I do not believe that the model runs have heretofore captured the initial conditions in the atmosphere wrt the strength and intensity of Dorian at present.

        Its a humdinger, that’s for sure.

        • Chris says:

          In regards to the above comment concerning upper level atmospheric recon.. astute observation there. Out of all the dropsondes readings to the north or west of the storms current location, nothing within any of the information gathered even hints at any current gap of weakness or opportunity for a northward turn. The US surface map shows a strong high in the northeast blocking the weak low in the midwest. Even if the low in southern Canada and the low in Montana combine to give it some strength in a couple days, by then.. the hurricane is stalled in Orlando. A true nightmare scenario.
          Given the intense strengthening this morning, everything else seems to be a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere. The models would have to accommodate by either shifting westward or predecting a self destruct pattern of stagnation and subsequent weakening just off the coast. .
          Incredibly difficult forecast to balance with all the various competing dynamics at play.
          That high level recon mission surely did not offer much to be optimistic about.

          • Anonymous says:

            Where does that leave South FL?

          • Chris says:

            Ramon,
            Same story again with dropsondes 7 and 19 from mission 29. Granted, low level wind has little steering influence, but.. even at the outside fringe of the circulation, to be so strongly pointing in the opposite direction of the proposed forecast is quite strange.
            Factor in the water vapor loop not showing any easterly shear until northern GA/Coastal SC?
            I would love to see what inconspicuous information these computer models are working with to unanimously come up with a sharp right turn as the only available outcome. Will be interesting to see how the next 24 hours plays out in the model updates. Looking forward to learning something new.

  • Danielle Hollywood says:

    This is so scary as now more models show a FL landfall. I noticed most models taking it north doesn’t have the correct millibars… The models are for a cat 3 not 4 or 5. God speed EVERYONE! WE are in this together no matter where Dorian goes!!!

  • Chris says:

    Last pass.. 912mb. 15mb drop in about an hour.. in shallow water! This will be one for the record books. No models could have seen that coming. I would bet anything the guidance starts tracking further west with subsequent runs. Very strong storm now.

  • Steve Goranson says:

    Your updates are very helpful to understand the variables that go into what directs a hurricanes path. Will you be giving multiple updates when it moves closer to the Eastern shore line?

  • J says:

    Seems like somebody somewhere is going to get beat up pretty badly by this one; it’s just a question of who that will be.

    • Ramon Martinez says:

      Right now, its the northern Bahamas. Reminiscent of Typhoon Haiyan that hit Samar, Philippines in 2013. Dorian is somewhat weaker, but whats 20 mph when its 180+.

  • Anonymous says:

    All of the media in South Florida continues to say its going to turn north and nothing hurricane force will happen here…people are in relaxed party mode almost. This is bad man, this is a bad mistake in my opinion.

  • Lyn says:

    I’m in Southern Brevard county, we are preparing to evacuate tonight/tomorrow morning. The ridge doesn’t seem to be breaking as fast as it was forecasted, and none of the models are initializing at the correct mb. Everyone here seems to think that because the Space Coast doesn’t get landfalls that often, it’s just not possible.

    • Cathy says:

      We are in the north west area of Brevard county and we are looking at evacuating tonight as well. We havent figured out if we should try to go north west up to maybe Atlanta or just go towards the western part of the state. This is our first hurricane so we are figuring it out as we go.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    …CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE ABACOS… A

    Location: 26.5°N 77.0°W
    Moving: W at 8 mph
    Min pressure: 911 mb
    Max sustained: 185 mph

  • Just got word that Captain Jack’s restaurant in Hope Town had water up to the ceiling of the restaurant. We were just there 3 weeks ago. Pray for the people on Elbow Cay and hope there is no loss of life.
    Capt Don
    Pineapple Princess Boat Charters

  • Joseph says:

    Dorian has not crossed the Gulf stream yet! It’s about to go into warmer waters, what’s the odds of 200 M.P.H. plus sustained? I’ve been sensing something with this hurricane, my ancestors told me things that I can see clearly now. This monster hurricane can’t turn fast, and is showing no signs of weakening, just intensification. This hurricane is showing rapid intensification.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Numerous models are now lining up strongly with previous 365 day rainfall map at the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
    totals through late this week:

    Northwestern Bahamas…12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
    Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
    The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia…3 to
    6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
    Southeastern Virginia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
    Central Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

    This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

  • Dayvid says:

    Hurricane Warnings just issues for parts of FL!

  • Norris says:

    In examining satellite images coming in this evening especially in the IR and enhanced imaging it has become apparent that in the eastern and southern regions there are areas of bands which appear to be intensifying outside of the main convection. These bands are oriented in a way which would suggest the possibility of the establishment of a secondary outer eye wall and point to the likelihood that this cyclone may beginning an eyewall replacement cycle. Such a reality may drop off the intensity over the next 24 – 36 hours but re-intensification may occur when the main circulation is reestablished around this new eye wall.

    All interests in the Bahamas and the eastern seaboard of Florida, Georgia and the Carolina need to watch this situation intently as the absence of any prevailing steering current over next 48 hours may subject this dangerous storm to shifts in track causing catastrophic consequences to nearby population centers.

    • Anonymous says:

      Try http:// earth.nullschool.net click winds and choose your pressure. Zoom- turn globe click earth after each chage

  • Dirtyharry says:

    Levi, as of 9/1 20:00, I dont see any upward steering by that high pressure off virginia to change the direct impact near Ft Pierce fla. Doesnt look like the upper wind currents are going to push the huricane out to sea as predicted. I’ve seen the terrible aftermath of Micheal in panama city along with mexico beach. Everyone who stayed will tell us to get thefuxout!!

    • Joseph says:

      I’m worried about strengthening, and not turning. I remember John Hope, & Steve Lyons that big hurricanes can’t turn quickly. And it takes time, for them to weaken, and they create their own weather, and atmospheric conditions moistening the air around the hurricane. It’s a Cat 5 hurricane going west, my thoughts it’s going to stay west, or west north west, no massive due north change from westward motion.

      • Noneyabusiness says:

        The turn is not expected until tomorrow afternoon. I get it this is stressful but have a drink and relax will ya.

    • Anonymous says:

      The only possibly to steer might be the gulf stream but that is going to be a heat generator for this hurricane. Waves are around 7-8 meters at the northern wall and fla due west at 4 meters

  • Danielle Hollywood says:

    Waiting for Levi to post like 😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳!

    • Ramon Martinez says:

      He is waiting to gain clarity I imagine, probably from the 18z runs. I don’t like that all the thunder storm cirrus is moving west along the SW coast of FLA below Tampa.

  • Kevin Honaker says:

    Models can and often are wrong. I fear this will be a prime example. The most recent satellite images show a southward jet in motion, keeping the eye just south of the Bahamas and maintaining strength. The energy it would take to turn this storm north is not present in the high pressure as advertised. Dorian gets slightly north due to being impinged between the high and tough to the north, slamming it into the Cape Canaveral area as a cat 4 with 160mph winds.

  • BONNIE L RADWANCKY says:

    ove all the information provided! This site allows for one to make their own conclusions for all the data from the different models are right here! No need to listen to all the drama that news casters add into the mix! The sharing of your knowledge is just so helpful to all who like to think with their own minds while they continue to learn and gain a sense of understanding just how forecaster come to their conclusion of what they share to the public.

    I below am sharing some food for thought for any and all who believe we all hold value. The truth is non are wiser but by communication we all gain from a equal yet different perspective. This communication gives way to gain in understanding that feeds the growth of compassion. That brings all to see a bit more in focus that we as just one are nothing and we simply need one another, for we together are what makes the greater and amazing ONE> We all hold an equal value and all gain when we GIVE. To grow in greatness, we must have some sort of desire a tool fuels with compassion. To gain compassion, we need some sort of understanding. Understanding come from the wisdom we obtained by experience and communication. Therefore, communication is key is derived from sharing and therefore by ones giving. We all then grow thru an understanding of which then makes way for one to have compassion. Compassion gives greater ability for us all to grow a bond of love for one another. To make this all so very simply we all gain simply by GIVING. To give you shall receive. I think we have all become confused by our own self. We have taken what is just by nature, in form of basic and simple, to the point where it has become complicated and hard! Stop, breathe and clear your mind and relax, so you have the ability to think and focus. It is easy. In my mind we all live RAW; *Right Alongside Wrong*. By nature, and design there is not one without the other. As the like, the difference holds key part to the same equal whole. The difference is what give way allowing there to be same. Naturally, by pure nature the value held, is equal to one. Therefore, in my own conclusion, In math one holds a number value of just 1 and is less than 2. I think not! For, by natures design one can not be less than 2! It is much greater and greater than my own ability to fully understand. And personally, I have chose to give this and all credit to our creator, which I call our higher power, our very souls energy. By given choice, I just believe giving faith and trust in the bond I share in my own personal relationship with the one who holds all, therefore is simply the wisest. I do not hold the wisdom of the wisest, though in my heart I know I am a very part as you. I can only share my given for knowledge, and sharing is key to all who see the gift we all have been given in our own life as an individual. Alone it is impossible to love all, but with our GREATER the GREATEST all is simply now just possible! Peace to all my friends. Sign me simply B… RAW. a.k.a B. Radwancky

    • BONNIE ~ says:

      Wow no matter where I try to post my thoughts that may give greater gain to humans. The post either vanishes or gets messed up in some sort of fashion! I am sorry y’all its just frustrating and I am human too!. I do not care for the words I took the time to type out and share to be not posted as I typed. Creating me to sound so …. Well just not right. Furthermore I am not hiding from anyone of who I am and what my thoughts are. But in the fact that this is out there for any and all to see, well let me say I am not STUPID. What I am upset over is the loss of words I shared by typing them out and then by the fact my full name was also shown for all including those I would have rather they not. Simply because I personally do not find desire in all. I am HUMAN and have concerns too. Please do not judge especially by my posts here alone. I don’t see the ability to where I can edit my own very words.
      Peace all

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