How much can Dorian weaken if any? The water will stay the same, but wind speed weakening? Can this hurricane strengthen before Florida to 200 M.P.H. plus?
Dorian will not probably , make land fall when it he reach near West Palm Beach, a 70 miles distant from Freetown, any Florida city on the Gulf of Mexico side is a safe bet, from Tampa to Panama City,Google Darksky West Palm Beach Google Meteblue West Palm Beach
Levi,thank you for your comprehensive and balanced reporting on Dorian.
He is so balanced. He could go a bit further. It’s like he is reading my mind and translating it into data.
This is going to be a terrible storm and it’s going to do a lot more damage than hurricane Matthew
With far Southeastern NJ currently in the cone on Day 5, is there still any chance Dorian could near the New York City area/Surrounding waters?
Levi, I just want to say that your site and especially your informative videos are by far the best in the weather world. Please keep up the good work. I am constantly on your site viewing the recon reports, images and evening videos. Thank you.
Interesting walkthrough on the vortex and impact on steering. Watching and waiting in Jupiter, FL.
Thanks Levi ☆!
Another stellar vid on what exactly is going on in terms that are easy to grasp. I notice the milibars seem much higher on the models than what are being reported. Doesn’t that affect the storm path accuracy?
He alluded to that when he said “the european is not resolving the storm well” meaning it doesn’t have the best grasp of the actual initial situation as the model begins the math to produce the prediction.
I infer (and to be clear this is only my personal interpretation of his remarks, and I could be wrong) that Levi is putting a lot of weight into the HWRF. His thesis makes a lot of sense to me.
In any event, its gonna be really close and Florida will receive major impacts regardless of the precise track.
If Dorian does undergo an ERC, the wind field will expand, just as it will if Dorian weakens.
That’s exactly what I inferred from this latest entry also. I thought heretofore the European Models proved correct in hindsight.
Once again, thank you some much for these videos. You explain things so clearly and you don’t sensationalize anything. It is funny, my family all have cable (I do not) and they watch the weather channel like it is going out of style when hurricanes threaten. But they will make comments that show they don’t really understand what is happening at all. I am usually able to explain whatever they don’t understand very clearly just because I have been watching your videos and following the model runs on your website. I have a cousin and a paralyzed aunt (paralyzed in a wreck during the hurricane Michael evacuation) and they are both in Orlando fearing yet another major storm. I am glad I can help explain the mechanisms behind what is driving this storm. It seems to help a lot with their sense of uncertainty and that feeling of helplessness. So THANK YOU.
This news reporters are just guessing about the storm they don’t even know there just doing it to get paid
Levi – Great work as always –
Does the “Bahamas radar network” you mentioned have a URL accessible?
I simply googled Bahama radar network and it popped right up.
Levi, I absolutely LOVE your videos!! I just don’t understand why national channels can’t or don’t explain things the way you do?! You make it all make sense, why can’t they? Or better yet, why are YOU on TV with this information?! Thanks for all you do, you’re truly one of a kind!
Thank you, Levi.
Great job Levi!
Thank you for providing the absolute best weather information regarding hurricanes out there.. I have been following your site for years and it is always my go to place to get the real scoop on what is going on. You are amazing and the knowledge and no nonsense way you have of informing has proved itself over and over again. I live in Houston and went through the terror of Harvey and ever since then have PTSD just about every time it rains for an extended period of time. I just wanted to thank you so much for your calming and informative videos. You have a magical way of being able explain it so everything makes sense. Thank you and please keep it up… I would be lost during hurricane season without your videos.
Man, I loved how you broke down how the steering flow with increased cloud heights can affect a storms motion based off strenth and structure. So far this storm has gone against the odds and certainly has not followed the path or forecasted strength. Last Sunday at this time, we weren’t even sure if it was going to be much more than a TS at this point. Going to be interesting how it evolves over the next few days. I’m in Central VA and live in the woods. Thinking I’m good here, but I can only imagine the suspense Floridians are feeling at the moment. Home or no Home? A little more stressful than figuring out dinner. Keep up the great work Levi. Huge fan.
Is it me, or is the media not treating this urgently enough? I have flipped channels for 3 minutes now, and nothing is on about Dorian, just regular programming. That irks me.
OUTSTANDING work, sir. A model is merely a computation based on conceptual assumptions, simplifications, and input data. You know what each model is actually computing and assuming, and so can explain the sources of intermodel variability.
Levi, I feel so lucky to have come across a Facebook post this weekend that referenced your website. Your nightly reports have been exactly the kind of information my family & I appreciate. Thank you so much for sharing your talents and efforts with us publicly. I can only imagine how much work it is to put together a 10-minute report that is clear, concise, and comprehensive, but you, fine sir, do it incredibly well, and we are so grateful! Thank you!!!
Looks like active more or less real time satellite data, color enhanced – https://stormcarib.com
While I have been investigating your model data for a couple months now, this was my first time watching one of your video updates. I’m glad I did! Best explanatory update I’ve seen all day. This explained questions I had around the ridge in the Ohio valley.
Thank you for your time, efforts, research, and outstanding explanations! I’ll be anticipating your next video update.
Yep. Astounding update. The HWRF is lining up well with 365 day previous rainfall at AHPS. New totals will radiate out from amounts already over 100 inches ( which is a larger area offshore North Carolina) and tend to fill in at areas at around 30 inches.
The HWRF is lining up again with 365 day previous rainfall. Amazing. The upper level dynamics are captured on the forecast run and integrate with the historical rainfall, so the data is almost completely working on the HWRF.
HMON is amazing as well on the precipitation forecast and all the way to North Carolina. It really integrates previous rain with the forecast. The data must be adequate and almost completely correct.
The broad area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico is also moving west toward lower 365 day rainfall totals near Brownsville and the GFS and NAM, while both summing up the forecast rain differently a bit geographically, are agreeing with the overall pattern on the 365 day previous rainfall map at AHPS.
From the NHC: Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly
westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
toward the coast of Mexico.
The drought monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu shows areas lacking rainfall on excellent maps.
So will the drought will persist in SE NC as depicted at the Climate Prediction Center map of forecast date August 15 through Nov 30 at U.S. seasonal drought outlook? Hmm. Never tell Han Solo or Dorian the odds!
what? it’s a hurricane right?
The U.S. seasonal drought outlook:
Depicts large-scale trends
on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Use caution for applications that
can be affected by short lived events. “Ongoing” drought areas are
based on the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (intensities of D1 to D4).
Excerpt of Mandelbrot: Art, math, science, and works in progress by Timmer
John is Ars Technica’s science editor. He has a Bachelor of Arts in Biochemistry from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cell Biology from the University of California, Berkeley.
Lorenz is famous for his role in the development of chaos theory, which was popularized through ideas like the butterfly effect. But Lorenz found that, while chaotic systems are extremely sensitive to initial conditions, many had a tendency to gravitate towards a limited set of conditions. For example: it’s impossible to predict the weather in New York on a given July day, it’s safe to expect that it will be warm.
Wow these is going to be the worst hurricane I pray that it goes back in the sea and away
This I meant autocorrect sorry
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