The disturbance we were tracking across the Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Imelda this morning just before moving inland over southeast Texas. The primary threat from this system is very heavy rainfall and the associated potential for flash flooding along the upper texas coastline and extending well inland (see the rainfall graphic below). Stay tuned to your local sources for information about flooding in your location.
Tropical Depression Ten also formed today in the central Atlantic. Expected to move WNW and strengthen, TD10 is forecast to pass north of the Leeward Islands. However, if the storm gets strong and fights off the dry air and shear it will be interacting with at the time, steering currents may take it farther south, closer to the islands, so keep an eye on the forecast.
Conditions through Thursday are fairly favorable for TD10 to strengthen. As mentioned, TD10 will have obstacles as it approaches the islands after that, and it’s still uncertain how TD10 will react given its small size, which makes large ups and downs in intensity possible.