It is already wet enough over the lowlands of central America that coming ashore over the lowlands will not cause this storm to dissipate. It was reforming over the lowlands of the Yucatan. It will have to go over the mountains to be disrupted.
Congrats on the PhD and the NOAA hurricane research job. You are officially an expert now. I’m glad to see this site is still here. Thanks for your public education work on your free time.
FYI, Pat Caldwell who works for NOAA in Hawaii is an outstanding surf forecaster – simply the best. He did it on his own time but he was so good that it caused some issues only understood by those who have served in the federal govt, and it eventually became part of his official job description.
This is a crazy start to hurricane season. The heat content of the tropical Atlantic is disturbingly high – near record levels for this date. The early build up of heat north of Puerto Rico and Cuba is not reassuring to this North Carolina resident. I am very tired of flooding and damage from tropical systems over the past 5 years.
Your paper in press is very interesting. It brings to mind the impossible intensity forecast for hurricane Michael. There appeared to be too much shear for intensification but the high heat content combined with the powerful jet to the NE of the storm raised the possibility of intensification despite the strong shear. I don’t envy the NHC forecasters. Lives were on the line.
I have to agree with FOW that that part of the Yucatan will not slow things much. Once it does leave shore it would do as the models say because of SSt’s, but that is not the end all, be all, of any storm. I also think that the SST’s will shift by then anyways. 5 day out models are what they are.
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