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[Wednesday Morning] Nicole Nearing Hurricane Intensity as it Approaches Florida

   Posted by Levi at 9:26am on November 9, 2022


34 comments

   

Comments

  • John says:

    Just found your blog… Love it!

  • Ben says:

    Thanks Levi – Excellent as always

  • Vern says:

    Excellent as always. Thank you Sir.

  • Jamie says:

    Levi, your mobile production studio is excellent. Audio crystal clear and strong, and the video is very good. Thank you for taking time to do these even on your trip. You are a true professional.

    Just found out that Hillsborough County Schools are closing for Thursday (already were shut for Friday Vet Day), and our agency will do the same. I am curious how much damage a TS will bring to Tampa since it will be coming across the state. I am not putting up shutters (which I did put up for Ian). All other power, water, and food preps are in place in my home.

    Stay safe everyone!

  • Erin Backer says:

    I can’t believe I just discovered you yesterday!!! I’m born and raised in Key West, Florida where hurricanes are just a way of life, you are a resource!!! Last month with Hurricane Ian nobody was focused on how it may impact the Keys and we ended up with 3 feet of storm surge in many areas of the island’s homes. Everyone was upset that we hadn’t any warning. I bet if we had known about your Tropical Tidbits that you had mentioned the possibility. You are so thorough and detailed and interesting to listen to. I just added you to my homescreen so I can be a faithful follower from now on. I’m telling everyone about you! Thank you Dr. Levi Cowan! You are a brilliant treasure!

    • Dave says:

      Levi is the best. This site has everything!

    • Dave says:

      Yeah I agree I didn’t hear anything on the Florida keys with Ian, except as it was hitting. Levi is usually right on (also the nhc track too). Jesus loves you (John 3:16).

  • James G says:

    How to make one time support gift?

  • Dave says:

    Thanks Levi. No worries with the quality, it was good. Kinda of weird for Florida to be getting a hybrid storm or extra tropical like storm . The wind field is massive like that. Dangerous storm nonetheless. Jesus loves you and saves (John 3:16; John 14:6). He is the Way!

    • Owen says:

      It may have a massive wind field but it has been fully tropical for about 24 hrs and is now a hurricane that is going to be making landfall within the next 8 hrs. It will go post tropical after it reaches the eastern sea board and will go to the northern atlantic within the next 7 days.

      • Dave says:

        Oh yeah thanks Owen! I’m surprised that it had and still has a well defined eye on radar.

        • Anonymous says:

          It had a lot of time to churn in fairly warm waters to get itself organized, so it was probably likely to develop an eye in more entropial scenarios than most.

        • Owen says:

          Your Welcome Dave! It was a hurricane on the 7pm EST update on Nov 9. It has now reached the eastern sea board and will be in the atlantic within the next 72 hrs. If you want to see more updates on Nicole, you have to go to the WPC since the storm has now moved in-land and have made the decision to stop making advisories. I thought that when it first went fully tropical, I thought it still looked sub-tropical but I looked at the coordinates and saw that the low had moved into an area of convection where it was on all sides but had very little convection on the southern side.

  • That kid says:

    At 6 pm E.S.T. Nicole was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane sustaining winds of 75 mph, it also made landfall on Grand Bahama Island. Thank you, Levi, and I wish for the people in Florida, Georgia, The Bahamas, and South Carolina to stay safe.

  • That kid says:

    6pm update brought it to cat 1.

    The update read the following:

    000
    WTNT62 KNHC 092258 CCA
    TCUAT2

    Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update…Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
    600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

    Corrected header

    …NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA
    ISLAND…

    Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
    that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds
    are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

    SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST…2300 UTC…INFORMATION
    —————————————————
    LOCATION…26.6N 78.4W
    ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT
    ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Roberts

  • That kid says:

    Windfield is huge.

  • John Connaughton says:

    Levi, what is going on with the Model Track Graphics. They are covering such a huge area that it’s very hard to distinguish detail, for example, as it crosses FL. It wasn’t like this until today.

    • Anonymous says:

      There’s the NAM 3KM, which seems to be the best there is for detail through 48-60 hours (but not for intensity, of course.) So that might help if the macro models are a bit strange.

  • That kid says:

    Lanfall in Florida is likely going to come between the hours of 2-10 am E.S.T. in Palm Beach, Broward, or Martin counties.

    • John Connaughton says:

      10PM Track is estimating landfall at the very N end of St Lucie County or the very southern end of Indian River County. And those Model Graphics are horrible now. Like it shows such a large area (the combined model graph almost all of the Americas and western Europe and Africa), that tracing the line over small areas is impossible.

  • John Connaughton says:

    Boom. Landfall almost exactly on the St Lucie/Indian River County Line.

  • That kid says:

    Nice Prediction.

  • ICader says:

    I think Tampa Bay was actually in the eyewall of a storm for the first time in 101 years with Nicole! That’s something, huh?

    • John Connaughton says:

      I looked close at the tracking map and to me, it looks like the “eyewall” moved from the Lakeland area towards Zephryhills in Pasco, then diagonally across Hernando, from around Masyrktown, towards Chassahowitzka, passing between Spring Hill & Brooksville (I live in Spring Hill). So neither the City of Tampa or Tampa Bay had the core pass over it.

      • ICader says:

        No, but the eyewall (the bands of rain around the ‘eye’, I mean) tracked over Tampa.

        So, wait, you got to see the center of Nicole? What was that like? I’ve never been in the center of a tropical system before.

        • Anonymous says:

          {‘the center’ meaning in the eye rather than on its edge}

        • John Connaughton says:

          Oh, didn’t realize you meant that and yes, the center (core or normally eye) did get very large in area. Since Nicole weakened so much by the time it got to Pasco and then Hernando, the “eye” wasn’t much to talk about. We got a bit more gusty than normal (that must have been the “wall”), then it got real calm for a good while. I went out/looked out a couple times, and even though light rain was falling, leaves on trees were eerily still (no wind). Then later it got a little windy again, but I think that side was even weaker.

  • 拜占庭重骑兵 says:

    希望这个世界上再也不要有台风了,要知道那些因为台风而造成财产损失的人该有多么悲催!最后问一下飓风NICOLE现在已经消散了,那你们还好吗??我好像隐隐约约地看见有人在担心什么。[本人英语不好实在没办法.. :(]

    • Anonymous says:

      我很好。 我失去了一些旧栅栏,因为大约 50 天前我们遇到了一场风暴,名叫伊恩,削弱了它,妮可来完成了这项工作。 还有一个电涌,炸毁了我的气象站监视器。 不过,与佛罗里达东海岸的其他地方相比,问题相对较小。

  • Anonymous says:

    我很好。 我失去了一些旧栅栏,因为大约 50 天前我们遇到了一场风暴,名叫伊恩,削弱了它,妮可来完成了这项工作。 还有一个电涌,炸毁了我的气象站监视器。 不过,与佛罗里达东海岸的其他地方相比,问题相对较小。

    • 拜占庭重骑兵 says:

      我很惊讶我在这个网站胡说八道竟然还有人回复我,不过你们美国的翻译软件倒是还不错(或者说你中文学得还挺好),至少你说的我都明白。不过我住在公寓里对此倒没什么感觉,而且距离我家不远处还有一个坚硬的防风盾牌–台湾岛。以前有一个强度为3级(category 3)的台风登陆了台湾岛,但吹到台湾海峡对岸的我家时,强度只有1级了(category 1),所以我除了不方便出门以外,生活不受任何影响。

  • Dos says:

    Hi Dr. Cowan… been following you for quite a long time.

    Just watched this documentary… and am interested in your thoughts.
    https://youtu.be/rf78rEAJvhY

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