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October 2011

Another development threat in the Caribbean

   Posted by Levi at 9:39am on October 21, 2011

Mother nature may not be done with us this season. Despite the MJO leaving the western Atlantic and this time of year usually being when things start quieting down, we have another disturbance in the southwest Caribbean that has a decent shot to develop. Invest 96L is a smaller circulation than the very large 95L, and has a better chance to wind up in a consolidated fashion that could easily get named. This system is in weak steering currents and will be slow to move around during the next few days, but should slowly drift north or northwest due to high pressure over the eastern Pacific and central America while a trough sits over the eastern U.S. for the next 48-72 hours. After that, the flow over the SE US becomes flatter and could steer 96L slightly to the west for a time, but a 2nd trough quickly dives into the eastern U.S. in 5-6 days that would easily recurve anything sitting in the NW Caribbean. For this reason, Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas should be on the lookout for any trouble to their south, as it could come their way. Central America should be wary of 96L as well. The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC are all becoming more aggressive on development now in recent runs, with the ECMWF and GFS coming onboard with significant development for the first time in last night’s runs.

Another area of low pressure east of Trinidad may propagate into the Caribbean next week that could be a potential development threat behind 96L, or the two systems may interact with each other, so we may have a fair amount of things to watch this weekend and next week.

We shall see what happens!

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