Isaac Could be a Double Hurricane Hit for Florida

   Posted by Levi at 3:55pm on August 25, 2012

Isaac is disorganized this morning, which is to be expected from interaction with the mountains of Haiti. The storm has taken a significant jog north of where it was “supposed” to be this morning, due to the frictional effects of the mountains which I warned about yesterday being a wildcard for the short-term track. It goes to show how the model cluster can be way off even at the 12-24 hour verification. The significance of this is that Isaac is now only moving over the eastern tip of Cuba instead of the entire eastern half of the island, and thus he will be spending more time over water before hitting the Florida keys or south Florida. With about 36 hours over the very warm Florida straights, Isaac should have enough time to regenerate a core and strengthen into a lower Cat 1 hurricane.

The models, although they have shifted east since yesterday, have not come over to the peninsula, and remain over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida panhandle with Isaac’s track. They have at least mostly dropped the improbable northwesterly track into the central gulf coast, and now show a more likely recurve northward into the coast farther east. With the models tightly clustered this close to the end of the forecast, my track has to shift westward to meet closer with the model consensus. There still, however, remains some uncertainty, and as we just saw last night, the models can be off even with a 24-hour forecast. With Isaac now coming west of Florida, further intensification is called for after he scrapes south Florida. However, intensification over the eastern gulf is expected to be slower than intensification over the Florida straights, due to a track close enough to the Florida peninsula that Isaac’s main inflow channel, which is from the east, will be passing over land and bringing some drier air into the storm. Normally storms taking a track like this struggle to strengthen at all and often weaken. However, a very favorable upper pattern will be developing above the storm as a trough-split backs away to the southwest, ventilating the eastern gulf, and this should offset the normal trend and allow slow strengthening through a 2nd landfall in the panhandle. On the current track a low-end Cat 2 hurricane is expected near Apalachicola, Florida in about 3 days, though a track just a little farther west could result in a stronger storm, and a track closer to the Florida peninsula could result in a weaker storm.

We shall see what happens!


11 comments

   

Comments

  • JOHN CAMINO says:

    i just discovered your site, i’m glad i did, for the past three days i have been wondering other sites, with no positive results, congratulations, you have one more following your warnings……jcamino

  • Stephanie says:

    Thanks for the update Levi! Watching from Florida…

  • BeachFoxx says:

    Thank Levi!

  • John Byerly says:

    I saw one track bring it in to the midwest states inland. Do you agree

    • Levi says:

      If the farther west GFS track verifies, then it is possible Isaac misses his ride on the trough to the northeast, and moves slowly inland into the center of the country instead as a ridge builds to the north.

  • Levi says:

    The battle between the GFS and ECMWF has reversed. The GFS is now to the west of everyone else, and the ECMWF is now on top of my track:

  • ge2655 says:

    I have been silently following your storm insight and information at Weather Underground for years and I’m very pleased to become a member of your site. Even though I am a strict weather amateur, I do have 35 years of South Florida weather experience.

    I (like most living in So. Fla) am watching Isaac closely and preparing, as I deem necessary.

    Levi, I’m happy to be part of this venture and keep up the concise, non-hysterical dissemination of information.

    Regards,
    -Gary

  • Laurie says:

    Levi, your concise and easy to understand videos are welcome to those of us living in the potential path of any tropical system. I look forward to your future updates.

  • chester says:

    Hey levi are you still comfortable with your track or are you thinking east or west. I hope we have a better idea sometime Sunday. I see you were talking about the GOM temps what’s your take on the intensity. I really think you do agreat job with your presentation.

  • Singh says:

    We LOVE these shots and can’t wait to see the rest we know they are super beautiful! Thank you for mniixg traditional, romantic photos with ones that really fit our personalities! We have been smiling all day as we share these photos with our families during the holidays! You two are the best and we would recommend you hands down! See you in March!~Ry and Jake

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