Bless you Levi, but my head hurts after trying to follow all that. I went skiing this last week in Utah and had powder snow all week as if it was deep winter. It was wonderful but in the back of my mind I was wondering about your prediction for this next late summer season. Its time to get serious about the tropics once again.
My seasonal discussions can get a little technical as there is a lot that goes into them, but I tried to make the main conclusions clear. Thanks for posting.
Great analysis. Everything in your analysis makes sense, and you back it up with data.
Just how good is the euro model at this far out in time? What sort of historical performance does it have on this in particular? I agree with your point that there is much evidence available suggesting it (the euro) will be wrong about the Atlantic.
I can’t wait to see which way it all goes. Not hoping for an active season, but preparing just in case. Thanks for the hard work. Please keep it coming.
The Euro in recent years has shown significant skill at predicting the general pattern in the tropics several months in advance. However, the modern ECMWF seasonal model has not had to deal with a significant neutral ENSO period, so it is uncertain how well it will perform when the ENSO is not a strong signal. This year will be a great test for the long-range models.
Thanks for the reply. I guess if the euro does verify, we’ll be looking at slightly less than nominal TS numbers. …but there are so many indicators otherwise. It’s going to be interesting to see which way it works out. Only time will tell. (I guess that’s why I’m addicted to the tropics.)
Awesome analysis levi! I agree with you on the ENSO trend this summer. We continue to see negative OLR anomalies clustering around the maritime continent/eastern IO which supports a neutral ENSO/weak la nina pattern. The atmosphere is not headed towards an el nino very quickly IMO given the lack of a strong MJO signal. Mid tropospheric easterlies west of the date line and subsequent SOI rises will also prevent an incoming el nino. A la nada or very weak el nino is what I am expecting by late summer. Even if a weak el nino does form in mid summer it should not prohibit hurricane development as much given the lag effect involved with a changeable ENSO state.
Nice dissertation and analysis. We shall see what happens.
I’ll be watching to see if “…. the European is off its rocker a little bit ….”, heh. As always, thanks for sharing your analysis and insight, Levi.
What sort of time frame are you looking at to determine if/when the euro is somewhat right, slightly wrong, or completely honked up? …and to what degree?
Clearly there is already sufficient evidence to question the euro somewhat. I guess I’m asking; what is the next event in line you are looking for to lend support to, or further discredit the euro? …and when will that event occur? Next week, month, two months…?
Are you looking for a specific measurable event, a shift in the euro, or a shift in other analytical models?
I just got back to pay attention to what’s being forecasted for the incoming HSeason…. like always, got to the perfect discussion place, your tidbits….
Thanks Levi, appreciate your excellent work….
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