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August 2013

Tropical Storm Fernand Forms – Bigger Threats Likely from Eastern Atlantic in September

   Posted by Levi at 10:52pm on August 25, 2013

If you’re having trouble viewing the embedded video below, try the direct Youtube link.




  • stefanie says:

    Great explanation! Thanks Levi. 🙂

  • kwarren says:


    Thank you for the update.

    I’m watching.

  • Eric (weather advance) says:

    Hi Levi, I’m going to carry over your question from the last blog. The issue I’m trying to resolve with the MJO only has to do with the COD, & the aspect about the MJO that seems to boggle my mind is that the MJO in its COD during August is unfavorable against climatology, whereas the very next month of September, the MJO in the same position in its COD is actually quite favorable for tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic against climatology. Comment #1758 in this blog is what really drew my attention to this issue.

    In fact, I’m actually doing some of my own MJO research with US hurricane landfalls & MJO, along with ACE, named storm days, etc to confirm this, actually made this nice looking chart where I marked every hurricane which has hit the US since 1975 & compared it to the position of the MJO (in looking at this, I realized I forgot to add hurricane Charley from 1986, hit the US in phase 7 of the MJO, only storm of hurricane intensity or greater since 1975 to do so)

    I still wonder why the MJO is more favorable in its COD against climatology in September vs August when it’s actually quite unfavorable (this hurricane season is a good example of this with a quiet MJO in its COD most of August)

  • Andrew says:

    Levi, you put into scientific terms the scenario I thought would happen since before the season began. Thank you sharing the info that takes so much effort to learn. If I was 30 years younger, I would be doing exactly what you are. The cost of a master’s degree doesn’t pay for itself at my age but I’m okay with that.

    To put it in laymans tems: I’ve been thinking that this this season would come later than normal and the general trends for late season storms might not apply…..

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