*Updated 7pm Wednesday* – Watching Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for Potential Development – Rainfall the Main Hazard
Update 7pm EDT Wednesday:
Invest 92L continues to organize in a gradual fashion today, as expected. However, the system is somewhat decoupled, with the low-level wave axis to the west of the main area of convection and the mid-level vort max. This means that 92L may not be able to develop into a tropical depression prior to running into the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 12-24 hours. Either way, the impacts will be the same for central America, with heavy rain and potential flooding being the primary hazards. If 92L doesn’t develop before hitting the Yucatan, it will have another chance on the other side in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the trough to the north will likely string its moisture out towards the north gulf coast, and if the system is unable to consolidate, we may never see it develop significantly. However, it is prudent to wait for 92L to clear the Yucatan before judging how it may behave in the gulf. The forecast philosophy presented in yesterday evening’s post remains essentially unchanged today, so I am leaving the video and forecast graphic below for this evening due to time constraints. Current information, satellite loops, and model tracks for 92L can be found at the storm information page.
If you are having trouble viewing the embedded video below, try the direct Youtube link