Invest 96L Slowly Organizing – Future Track Still Uncertain

   Posted by Levi at 9:30pm on August 22, 2014


17 comments

   

Comments

  • Kris Fernandez says:

    You da man!

    Great analysis. You may recall TS Nate from 2011 he was supposed to be picked up but because the center formed 75 miles further south it just went west and died.

  • Suzanne Critchfield says:

    That was awsome. Thank u so much.

  • HarryKane says:

    Levi, Is Florida out of the woods with this storm? If it curves out NE, no problem, and if it is going to take sharp left turn it seems it would be no problem except maybe rain for the keys. Is there a chance it could feel the tug from the trough and gain latatude and then get caught by the high and proceed west? I guess what the question is if the storm is influenced by the trough, is it possible for the high to overwelm that pull?

    • Levi says:

      Oh no, if the trough misses 96L, Florida is the most likely place to get impacted. Exactly where that could happen, I can’t say until/if the trough actually misses.

    • Anonymous says:

      No, FL is not out of the woods at all. The last model run shows S FL in the cross hairs. The big question is if it gets trapped under the ridge forcing it west and if so, how far west. Probably until it reaches the Bahamas we will be in a guessing game.

  • Jose Alvarez says:

    Great analysis

  • Melinda says:

    Thanks for another great analysis.

  • Kelly says:

    Thank you for taking the time to analyze and post, especially mentioning your thoughts ref NJ. Your Superstorm Sandy analysis was early, accurate and just spot on. Your posts really help. Please keep them coming and know they are really appreciated.

  • Rocketjok says:

    Great stuff Levi! Surfers up and down the east Coast appreciate your updates. Keep em’ comin’

  • tito says:

    Terrific analysis-nice work Levi.

  • AD33 says:

    This is almost reminiscent of Jeanne that got entangled over Hispaniola too long, missed the trough and made a very hard left towards Florida.
    It would seem that the longer it stays over Hispaniola and weak, the chances of it feeling that trough decrease.
    There is a lot of energy to be tapped around Florida, Cuba and the GOMEX.

  • S79iceman says:

    Thanks Levi, as a new creeper on your website, I do appreciate the time you put in to explain this in plain English!!

  • John says:

    This is a great in-depth analysis from someone who takes a lot more time to explain what is going on than the meteorologists on the news between commercial breaks. I’m in SE Florida and been through three hurricanes, so I care a lot about this stuff. I look forward to future updates from you!

    Thank you Levi!

  • mark says:

    Ki levi….what are the chances of this tropical system to impact NYC next week-end with rain wind etc THX

  • hulakai says:

    interesting system

    here’s my thoughts:

    1. recent history=Bertha. also, storms this year seem to be right sided. Bertha was deeper in this location, so it went more north?

    2. shallow hot water in the Bahamas: if it stalls, it will intensify and then run out of hot water. maybe enough to push it north?

    3. I like the TVCA solution.

    no crystal ball or PhD. Just an old surfer

    keep up the good work

  • Roberto Matos Poll says:

    Thank you Levi for your extraordinary and very clear explanation with this Invest 96 L. I am in the Dominican Republic, and we did really get a lot of needed rain. I am loking forward to see your next analysis on the new system that is coming out of West Africa. Thank you Levi.

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