Erika Moving into Hispaniola – Big Flooding Threat, but May Dissipate
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The 5 PM pretty much sealed the deal on this very interesting storm. How ironic that even though this storm brings so much rain, the “drought” of major hurricanes making landfall on the USA continues on…at least for the time being.
Hi Levi, Thank You for great coverage of Erica. I am still very disappointed with the NHC 5 day cones. They got the whole darn state of Florida worked up into a lather predicting a hurricane then tropical storm then maybe weak low? I wouldn’t doubt Monday will be a good beach day in South Florida! Just in my home town of Hollywood Florida, the city was relying on the NHC. I live in a very low lying area. They spent the day sand bagging, setting up pumps, and who knows what other monies were spent, all due to the NHC stretching there abilities with the 5 day cone. They are now in the three day cone and they still can’t get it correct. I am sure they will be adjusting it also. They have all the tools but they don’t seem to be able to convey the information correctly. With your videos, you give all possibilities even with storms weeks out by explaining world atmospheric features. I am truly impressed with your work and hope you can teach a thing or two to the NHC down the road. Goodness knows they can use a fresh clear spokesperson to help them do the “splainin”. I don’t hope for anymore storms in the Atlantic this year but I will look forward to hearing your great videos if one pops up ! Thanks Again !!
Thanks Levi for your dedication…. Always your forecast and knowledge is considered among the NHC and Dr. Masters Blog… Is a combination of opinions that gives me confidence in knowing what to expect every Hurricane season…
Remembering hear Frank Strait speaking of you last night in his blog. Said you were awesome and gave an awesome blog of storms in both the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and for an awesome price … free. Love your blogs. Think that Erika has some strength somewhere out there, just not at this time. I fear and am afraid that this is going to be a big rainmaker for the SE coast of the US and moving up through the Carolinas next week and maybe even stalling up north near the mid-Atlantic. I remember seeing a couple of models showing just that. We’ll see.
Levi: As others have expressed it, you are one of the selected few out there bringing some sense of rationality to the different plausible scenarios given the conditions at play, and we are truly thankful for your input.
The question begs to be asked. What was wrong with all the models pointing Erika to a SE FL landfall, and why no one is addressing this issue? What level of trust can we give to the predicted trayectory of the next storm?
I’m sure your followers would be interested in your opinion of the above issues.
Tks again !
Hi Phil,
The primary problem was the unexpected reformation of Erika farther to the south, due to her tilted structure. This resulted in a track over Hispaniola that killed the storm.
The problem with public relations here was probably in communicating uncertainty. While the NHC noted that forecast confidence was low near Florida (due to Hispaniola and other things), the way forecast graphics are currently presented do not illustrate that uncertainty. Thus, folks think that the forecast is very likely to occur as advertised. Communicating levels of confidence remains one of the most challenging problems in 21st century weather forecasting.
As I commented on previous post, I think the media has a lot to do with pushing the NHC into predictions way to early. There is no way they can say when Erika was 200 miles east of the the lesser antilles to predict a south Florida landfall as a hurricane but they did and we were in the cone for days. I live in Hollywood Fl. and we experienced 20 kt. wind and got 2 tenths of an inch of rainfall. I would call it a beach day both Sunday and Monday. The state lowered the much needed water in Lake Okeechobee in anticipation of flooding conditions which never came. We will be paying for that decision in the near future with new water restrictions based on human error. I come to Levi’s site because he is a “no bull” presenter of weather facts who lets you know all the factors playing a roll in the movement of the storm based on the weather features surrounding it. Mistakes are made and occur from some of the unknowns. We have come a long way from the 1960’s indeed, but we have a long way to go in weather predicting. Man always feels they are all knowing and I am sure they felt the same in the 1600’s. We just need to get off the high horse and know we do not know nature’s fury like we think we do. We need the NHC for their models , we need people like Levi for his great insight into the modeling, and we all need to step back and keep a weather eye on storms and not believe anything is concrete when dealing with the tempest.