Just a quick question,their was a mention of a 1010 mb low in the western gulf on the euro,what was that all about?
There is a chance that a tropical low will develop near the Texas coastline in about 4 days. Right now it’s expected to be weak and perhaps bring some rain to the coast.
Thanks Levi,Do you think it is going to take 3 days for the 99L to get to the Bahamas? It is moving fast!
No it will enter the southeastern Bahamas in a day or so. It may take a couple more days for it to traverse the entirety of the Bahamas.
We are scheduled fly into Ft Laudrdale on Saturday and to cruise out on Sunday on Allure of the Seas. Do you think weather will deteriorate there on Saturday enough to cancel flights. Know you don’t have a crystal ball but just wonder your thoughts.
This weekend is about the time that 99L could be bringing bad weather to the western Bahamas and be approaching south Florida. I would keep an eye on the forecast as you prepare to leave. If a tropical storm develops, it could affect travel plans in that region.
I see zero chance that your SAT flight to FLL or SUN cruise will be cancelled (due to the weather). The system will be too far away from FLL to impact airline operations on SAT, and the cruise line will be anxious to get its ship out to sea in the event a tropical system is approaching on SUN or MON. So you can relax and enjoy your vacation.
Keep in mind that TravelExec’s comments are strictly amateur and his/her own thoughts ONLY. Will your vacation be impacted by this system? Possibly. I’ve lived in the paratropics long enough to know that many slight variations into a system during this time can have some drastic effects just a few days out. Will your flight be cancelled on Saturday? Probably not, but I would not heed TravelExec’s advice blindly – I would definitely keep the system in the back of your mind and monitor it as we get closer to the weekend. Going blindly into it and thinking everything will be perfect is a bit short-sighted. Just my two cents!
I will piggy back on what Dave said. I live in South Florida and cruise on a yearly basis. Airports will cease operation once the winds exceed 40mph sustained. I doubt that will happen before Sunday but you will need to stay informed by the airline.
As for the cruise line. They make every attempt to leave port and then alter their course around the storm. Happens just about every year down here. But again, stay in touch with them. Another good idea is to sign up for alerts…they keep you updated as the process plays out.
Hope this helps…….
I have learned so much from you, really sparked my interest in these 500mb charts.
As always you have a wonderful gift of being able to show us the possibilities and help us understand what may happen. I believe that this year is showing us that our computer knowledge regrading weather may not be as advanced as we thought it was, but, in comparison to what was known in the past, we are way ahead of the game. Keep up your wonderful analysis, we all learn a lot from you.
Convection kicked back up north of PR around 9pm. I suspect that the low pressure center(s) will reorganize north of Hispañola as the leading edge spin center dissipates over the mountains and the southerly wind field across the island helps intensify the low pressure on the north side. We’ll see. The wind shear/tutt patterns on the WV loops are a mess. The tutt west of Gaston has convection under it. Did a tropical wave get under the tutt? And what about the remnants of Fiona? What an absolute mess.
However, we know 99L is going to be trouble even if it’s just a rain storm. Haiti can’t take the rain and neither can Florida which could be flooded with torrents of green slime if the GFS verifies. Jeff Masters is tracking the lake levels in central Florida and it’s not good news. Aren’t you glad you moved to Florida?
PS Great job. I was wondering if you would notice the second spin center (or if I was just imagining it). Often the friction caused by topography helps consolidate complex disturbances like this one.
What the chance of 99L hitting New Orleans
If the euro solution proves correct, those poor people in LA.
I think this may be a Baton Rouge, Louisiana threat. In 1936 plus, or minus a few years a hurricane tracked at a 45 degree angle from the GOM from Slidell to Baton Rouge.
Do we still have remnants of Fiona yet to interact with 99L over the next couple days?
so flying to TPA to spend some time in tampa for the weekend and first part of next week….thoughts on predicability of 99-L affecting that area?
Hmmm…so if its interacting with Hispaniola, it could very well dissipate but still too soon to know.
Well the main center is in the ocean. The other one is just a spin up of thunderstorms blowing up and developing a circulation over hispaniola
UGH…that’s not good news for FL!
Speak for yourself, that is great news for some of us! We all don’t decry such weather phenomena like you do, Erin.
So you saying a storm that can destroy peoples homes and kill people is great news? Guess you never lost anything due to a hurricane. If so I bet you would have a different outlook on this.
I live in Watson, Louisiana. Yep, the Watson that got almost 3 feet of rain in 2 days. Didn’t flood by the grace of God.
What I have been reading on other sites and blogs is that the problem with the models is that they have no exact center of circulation to calculate tracks. I have noticed that the tracks are all over the map, including the Euro and the GFS, two of the more reliable models. When people see that spaghetti configuration, they don’t know that only about three or four of the models have been fairly accurate and reliable about where the storm is going. Even those, like the European and the GFS, have been all over the map over the past three days. The last time I saw the GFS ensemble, it had the storm making a loop and running up the western coast of Florida. Two days ago it had the storm going up the east coast.
Can you talk a bit about that uncertainty?
Any type of god did not have anything to do with your area not flooding – that opposite of that statement says that those who did get flooded/died was because of the lack of the ‘grace of god’. Either way, weather is a VERY complex and constantly-changing connected system. You can have tornadoes hitting one side of the street killing people while just a few meters away, barely a rose is touched on someone’s bush.
As for that uncertainty, it’s built into weather. Because very slight changes to the system can have huge alterations down the line, models are unable to come together. Further, each model looks at slightly different data, in different sizes of data boxes and each utilizes different means and methods for evolving the system. All the models are not the same for a reason. It is by looking at the weather outside, the weather around the region and then the models, we can get a better understanding of what is happening and what may happen. But do keep in mind that there is no way of truly prognosticating specific weather. We have seen systems move around and act in non-intuitive ways. Granted with larger systems like Hurricanes or MCC/MCSs, we can sometimes predict their movement a bit better than misoscale systems (e.g., tornadoes, gust fronts, etc). The models will keep changing as updated data is fed into them. It is truly par for the course.
You believe what you want to believe and let’s just leave our beliefs out of it.
What I am asking is (and which you did not answer) is of the most reliable models, the GFS, the HWRF and the UKMET, which one do you, LEVI, not DAVE, think is the most accurate at this point and somewhat more reliable than the others?
Dave is a total D-Hole!!
Levi, it is enjoyable watching your videos , they are quite educational and informative without any hype and your delivery is calm unlike many others I have found. Thank you.
Keep it up Levi. I really enjoy your videos and have learned a lot.
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