Would you update mid day? if TD 9 does increase rapidly, or do you only do update once a day?
Again thanks, I really appreciate your insight,
I usually only update once a day. I have work like everyone else, so that’s usually all I can do.
Thanks again for a very informative video. Anxious days ahead regarding exact track and intensity.
09L could make landfall at a similar location and intensity as Colin did.
Faux news on the radio just said TD9 could be Hurricane mid week,
Intensification to hurricane strength is a scenario that’s still on the table, but the storm has a lot of obstacles to clear if it’s going to have a chance at that.
Nicely done again Levi. The water temps present the wildcard in the Gulf….
Great site just found it.
Thanks for the good info!
Excellent discussion, as always, Levi. For those who don’t know, Levi has a day job conducting research and does this “on the side” — a remarkable achievement. Most of us couldn’t produce such excellent analysis even if it was our day job. Also something to keep in mind when you’re hoping for multiple updates during the day from Levi (I too am guilty of refreshing several times a day).
I did not know he had a day job , outstanding Levi, thank you.
Yes the wild card is the temps, in Sarasota I worry. Has anyone scene next weeks model GFS. that puts a system into Texas, UGh long way off I know but it is the season.
Thanks again all,
Thank you for all your hard work! I enjoy the website very much from Panama City Florida.
Hey Levi it’s Cody! As you were saying, this thing looks to be moving SW. Is there ANYTHING that can happen at all for this system to miss the trough and heads towards the Texas coast? Like a reverse Debby?
Hey Cody – no it doesn’t look like we’re going to see any Debby-like track uncertainty in the northern gulf, thankfully!
First time I’ve seen one of your videos and I’m quite impressed. You do an amazing job of getting much more detailed than most other media out there. You also do it in a way that isn’t over the head of someone who isn’t a bonafide meteorologist. I’m looking forward to your future videos as we go through the hurricane season!
Hi Levi. I noticed that the ULL off the coast of Georgia that is shearing the two TDs has a particularly “round” shape to it, as opposed to other ULLs that look more like a comma or elliptical. I remember that Joaquin looked “round” before it worked its way down to the surface. Is there anything to the idea that the shape of a ULL might make it more likely to transition to a surface storm? Do you think that this one has a change to do so? Thanks
Hey Joe – well you’re right that a lot of subtropical storms form from “round” upper-level lows. This is because, if they aren’t round, it usually means they are connected to something else, and aren’t “cut off” from the jet stream. Being cut off from the jet stream is important because it allows the system to meander for days over warm water, and it is no longer pulling dry air out of the mid-latitudes in that case.
As for the current situation, no we won’t be seeing that upper-level low working down to the surface, but we have enough to worry about on either side of it 🙂
Same track as Katrina, 11 years earlier? Yes, or no?
Levi, many thanks for your analysis.
Thanks Levi. I feel so much more “informed” after your reports. Mainstream tv just wants to over blow things so that it’s difficult to get a real world grip on things. Not so with your reports. THANKS!
I certainly appreciate the effort that you but in to keeping us informed. Pretty certain that Mississippi is out of harms way with this one!
It’s moving more west than the forecast, which takes it closer to the border of Mississippi & Louisiana with heavy rainfall possibly. Also, it’s not strengthening, weak systems tend to not get picked up, or steered into a certain direction like larger ones. The core can intensify rapidly into a larger systems once in
gets more into the open water of the GOM.
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