Brilliant explanation. Thank you
Still my concern is TD9, slows a little and does gain strength, more so then the models predict. Lets hope not.
Since this is a weak storm it will not pull cooler water from below and,
does not prohibit future storms. Just curious how that works.
Thank you again,
Pops in Sarasota
Of course with 3 days over the gulf unexpected things can happen, but right now egregious strengthening doesn’t seem likely.
You’re right that a weaker storm doesn’t suffer as much from upwelling cold water due to the winds causing strong mixing, and that likely won’t be a factor for TD9 here.
Thanks for everything you do! You put it into simpler terms so we can all understand. What’s really concerning me is the long range models developing another storm the week of labor day. I know it’s a long way out to forecast. But I must ask if you have any thoughts on this.
There is a strong signal in the models that the next wave off Africa could develop, but speculating on the details right now would be just that – speculation.
I have a few thoughts and questions. If TD 9 moves farther westward in the next 24-48 hours than the NHC forecast track shows, could TD 9 strengthen more than projected? My thoughts are if TD 9 tracks farther west than expected the storm would have to deal with the shear, but once it turns northeast it would have a longer time over warm waters, a longer time to strengthen since the shear would be flowing in the same direction, and it would give time for the trough coming down into the Southeast to be more established farther south, which therefore TD 9 could use the trough to strengthen. I guess what I am asking is, do you think that my analysis is correct if the storm tracks farther westward than what the NHC forecast track says? Thanks so much, I look forward to your videos every day
Excellent display and narrative!! Thank you so much! I live in Wakulla County, FL, 30 miles South of Leon County (Tallahassee) just off the Gulf. Basically the heart of the Big Bend. So this TD is of particular interest to me. Will be keeping close watch here on your site over the next couple of days.
Well, the mission into TD 8 is done and it’s still very weak, 25kts max, despite moving into warmer waters. We’re getting rain in eastern NC but it’s not too heavy. Over all, the effect of these storms and all the tropical moisture coming ashore will to be get a large area of Florida and the southeast very wet. This may become a big problem if later, stronger, storms hit areas that are already very wet.
Since you posted your analysis the convection has moved closer to the center of TD9. Maybe it is getting better organized.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
Love the updates Levi. Keep up the good work.
Thank you Levi! You always explain everything so clearly! Thank you for your good work!
I just found your website and it’s really well done along with your blog narratives. Thank you for keeping this going and I will be showing my gratitude with a donation to you for your efforts.
How about twice daily updates? :-)
What is going on with the last two runs of the NAM 4km? Is that even a remote possibility?
Excellent job of putting it all together in layman terms. TD 9 has had a lot of hurtles to jump over and you have explained them in depth. I just found your site 4 days ago and I keep coming back to it everyday.
TD 9 is a trooper,it has struggled,fought of numerous attempts to be snuffed out only to keep intact. So the below info would not surprise me,
One potential monkey wrench in the track forecast: TD 9 could undergo a relocation of its center to point more than 50 miles south of its current center, so that it is closer to the heaviest thunderstorms near the western tip of Cuba. If this occurs, a southward shift in the predicted track of TD 9 may be required. ( Dr. Jeff Masters )
Also look at this model and the monster it shows, in a week ,
Thank you Levi
I really enjoy your videos (Very informative, concise, and easy to understand)
TD 9,,,,, I hope I am wrong but it seems to be getting bigger and better organized, hence the Hurricane watch updated for northern gulf, I am in Sarasota so so far so good but look at the size of this.
Help Levi tell me I am wrong,
Thanks eagerly awaiting your update
Here is info for other weather junkies like myself
Just found your youtube channel, twitter etc…last week before Hermine. Great videos! I’m a huge weather buff and your videos are succinct and articulated extremely well. I’ve been telling everyone about your pages!
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