Karl Remains Weak, but Expected to Strengthen Soon

   Posted by Levi at 1:56pm on September 22, 2016

Tropical Depression Karl remains weak due to southerly wind shear this morning. Convection has become more organized on the north side of the circulation, but the low-level center remains partially exposed on the south side. Shear is expected to lighten somewhat over the next couple of days and some strengthening is likely to occur as Karl turns northward toward Bermuda. Karl is expected to pass just southeast of Bermuda late Friday and early Saturday while strengthening. This track forecast has high confidence, but even slight shifts in track could change the impacts to Bermuda, and details will be difficult to know until Friday. After passing by Bermuda, Karl will accelerate northeastward and become extratropical.


4 comments

   

Comments

  • Barrett Orsak says:

    What is your thoughts on a storm brewing up in gulf next week along a stalled front?

    • Levi says:

      I assume you’re speaking of the long-range 6Z GFS. There is very low confidence in a forecast that far out, and it’s not even clear that a front will be there at that time in the first place.

  • Waylon Garcia says:

    Lots of things are happening on the gfs. Looks like it has a pretty strong storm out in the Atlantic also.

  • Greg goodman says:

    levi I live in mobile are we safe the rest of hurricane season.

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