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October 2016

[Sunday Evening] Matthew Moving Toward Jamaica and Haiti – Potential Long-Term Impacts to U.S. Remain Uncertain

   Posted by Levi at 12:04am on October 3, 2016

Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center




  • Rick Billings says:

    Extremely scary scenario for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. US impacts could be serious as well. Thanks for posting, as always.

  • Jon Elu says:

    Great job! West Palm Beach here hoping he stays well off shore and then out to sea. I saw a video of Kingston already dealing with storm surge. Very scary and serious situation developing. Thanks for keeping us informed.

  • T Evans says:

    Mr.Cowan just an oustanding job with the updates.

    clear concise and on the money….


  • Rainer says:


    So I am currently looking at the models and the European Model is currently showing an interesting solution…it shows the North then NNW path then it shows it sitting off of the Carolina coast due to the ridge off the coast then the ridge near NE…then as the finally move off(not by much)it then takes it on a NNW course toward Cape Cod…any thought??? I know it’s one run but it seems interesting…also the last three runs of the Euro shift slightly west overtime.


    • Levi says:

      That kind of motion entirely depends on the character and timing of the trough coming out of the Great Plains. With each model run that will likely change until we are only a couple days away from its arrival.

  • Beach Bum says:

    Great commentary and analysis, Levi. What a crazy, exciting, and scary situation unfolding.

    I’d like to believe the current WNW direction is just a wobble of the eye as it spins around, but seeing it move in the same direction for 6+ hours has me skeptical. The further west it goes now the greater the probability of US landfall.

    So much to watch in coming days. Dr Klotzbach’s ACE statistic that he so often references is going to blow up from just this one storm, as it stays a major cane for so long. Matthew will put this year on the map after so many below average seasons in the past decade.

  • Nancy Dine says:

    Hanging on to this site for great info. I’m Virginia Beach Virginia/ Hatteras area. Thank you all, especially Levi, for all of the input. My family and I very much appreciate it. Will continue to monitor and look forward to any advice in the near future.

  • Harrycane says:

    Hi Levi, Thank You. Is there any possibility that the mountains could cause the center to reform in another location once it leaves the Cuban coast? Or is the storm too strong to be torn up as much as a weaker system might?

    • Levi says:

      Hurricanes are less susceptible to reformations, as the location of lowest pressure never really changes. However, mountains in the Greater Antilles have been know to “jerk around” even major hurricanes and toss them a few dozen miles in a given direction.

  • Jim Smith says:

    Excellent Job…please do not go private !

  • Andrew Johnson says:

    A few things I like to always note with forecasts this far out, some of which you similarly spoke about:

    1) This is, as you said, a 6 day forecast for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Things are VERY likely to change drastically between now and then. Very few 6 day forecasts end up verifying.

    2) You mentioned this, but the models have been horrible with this storm. There’s no reason why they should start nailing it any time soon.

    3) This is my personal opinion, but it seems very possible that little land interaction occurs. It doesn’t seem especially likely that the storm will make an actual landfall in Haiti or Jamaica, and it seems like it’ll pass over a narrow part of Cuba, meaning less time over land. That would be bad for the Bahamas.

  • SteveInBoston says:

    Why is Matthew expected to stay so strong so far north? There’s a big drop in water temps North of the Carolinas.

    • Levi says:

      The storm would be transitioning into a nontropical system at that point, and if there exists mid-latitude dynamics that can support a strong nontropical system, it could make that transition without technically weakening much, though it would be changing into an entirely different type of storm during that time.

  • […] Source: Tropical Tidbits — [Sunday Evening] Matthew Moving Toward Jamaica and Haiti – Potential Long-Ter… […]

  • Joey The Weather Weenie says:

    Any effect on Matthew from Invest 98L?

  • Reid says:


    Have you seen the photos of the sprites, reportedly taken in the direction of Matthew’s parasitic twin?

    I’m not a big HAARP conspiracy fan, but these sprites do look rather robust.

    From Dr. Master’s Blog, see the two links

    435. no1der
    2:37 AM GMT on October 03, 2016
    Intense storms in the Blob (see for real-time) have been producing red sprites as seen from 200mi away in Puerto Rico.;r=0;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;n=1;y=14.8818;x=-73.3117;z=6;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ra=1;i=1;

  • Nancy says:

    Thank you for the update! Keeping folks in the region in my prayers.

  • ossqss says:

    Mathew seems to be trying to give birth on its east side. Very unusual persistent structure. Just sayin, any analogues on that?

  • Mitchell says:

    Excellent update, as always. Being a little uninformed, I’m unsure of the spelling of the term you used to describe the erratic, step like track of Matthew and other major hurricanes, so I’ll spell it how it sounded (cho-coy-tull) oscillations. M

  • L Quinn says:

    Great explainer. How often do you post your video updates. You cover a great deal. Thanks

  • Bernard says:

    Good morning Levi, can you please tell me is s Florida off the hook.

  • Peter W says:

    Any of the remnant energy from Matthew flowing into the new disturbance off to its East North East?

  • John says:

    Great briefings young man!! Hard to believe you are just a grad student!! Too bad the Hurricane Center doesn’t have 12 hour briefings of this nature (they should!!).Anyway, great analysis and who knows, we might see you as one of the Hurricane Forecasters at the WX. Burro down the road!! Finally, great web site. You’ve done well, keep it up kid!!

  • ossqss says:

    We are starting to see a definitive Westward trend in several models (Euro and UKMET) including the balloon data supplimented NAM. Yikes!

  • Jay says:

    I’m starting to see a westward trend starting to develop with the models? Is this a concern?

  • Chris says:

    What is your general opinion of the likelihood of this Sandying into the mid-Atlantic at this point? I know it’s a pretty unlikely situation, but is it still on the table?

  • Rainer says:

    The cone of uncertainty is now bringing it more west than from an hour ago

    • Gerry says:

      Based on the recent shift to the west, the whole cost from FL to NC is going to be impacted. FL at the least should see strong onshore flow with increasing wave action. What will be interesting will be the trend of the guidance over the next 24 hours. It will not take much more of a westward drift to put Matthew right on the coast.

  • Eli Olive says:

    Any new update Levi?

  • Don says:

    Best forecaster! Look forward to the updates

  • Patrick says:

    No video update tonight Levi?

  • treetopflyer says:

    Levi’s Twitter shows that the update will be LATE Tonight.

  • Hoff511 says:

    I am anxiously awaiting your new video. I literally cried for the people of Haiti tonight. Matthew is already a “century” storm.

  • says:

    great video! thanks

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