Be prepared and have a hurricane plan! It’s impossible to know in advance if you will be impacted by a storm this year.
Thank you again for explaining what factors are involved in forecasting a seasonal hurricane estimate. I keep learning from your presentations.
Really appreciate the in depth knowledge and explanations…. I’ve learned a lot!
Great job Levi!
Would the relative warmth north of the ENSO region, compared to the relatively cooler ENSO, not also disrupt/weaken the Pacific cell? Seems the atmospheric cells of both the Atlantic and Pacific has disrupting factors.
Also, thanks for the video.
Well, the central-eastern Pacific is a little different than the Atlantic. Hawaii is around 20N latitude, and water warm enough to support tropical convection usually doesn’t extend farther north than Hawaii during the summer. This means that when warm anomalies exist near Hawaii, such as this year, it doesn’t really disrupt the sinking branch of the Hadley Cell, which lies farther north at 30N-40N where the subtropical ridge typically is.
The Atlantic, on the other hand, can get warm water much farther north (35N-40N) east of the U.S., and thus warm anomalies there are better able to disrupt the Hadley Cell where the Bermuda ridge lies.
The Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was weakened by persistent subsidence from the extremely intense Asian monsoon. The strong monsoon extended into Africa. The combination of strong subsidence over the Atlantic, that could be traced back to the strong uplift over south and southeast Asia, with optically dense African dust, killed the developing tropical waves that moved off of Africa.
The warm water off the east coast of the U.S. was not what kept the tropical waves from developing. They died in the dry dusty air in the mid-Atlantic.
The CSU team hypothesized that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation had shifted. That hypothesis is inconsistent with last year’s above normal season and other evidence. The apparent AMO cycle is much longer than 18 years since the Atlantic became active in 1995. Moreover, Emanuel has proposed that sulfate particulate caused cooling was one reason for the cool temperatures in the 70s and 80s. When Europeans slashed the sulfur pollution the Atlantic warmed up.
The CSU team has a persistent record of changing their methodology after repeated failures. Bill Gray had a good early career but science passed him by in his later years. His climate change science denial was sad to watch and his repeated poor forecasts of hurricane seasons reflected his inability to keep up with changes in science. Just my opinion, of course.
The strongly positive Arctic oscillation in the winters of 1988 to 1995 also pulled warm waters northwards and led to intense hurricane seasons when the AO became less positive and the MDR got very warm.
You live in Florida now so I recommend talking with the AOML and U Miami folks. The heat content anomalies they analyze are more persistent than SSTs.
I think that NOAA has the correct forecast this year. Above normal but not way above normal. The monsoon is a little late and the IMD is predicting a normal monsoon season.
The heat content of the EPac is down from recent years. And the heat content in the mid-Atlantic region of the MDR is up a little.
The westerlies this early June are much stronger than they were in 2013 and the subtropical highs in the NH are weaker. There is strong subsidence in the southern hemisphere especially the southeast Pacific. That’s why the El Niño did not materialize. Weaker subsidence over the Atlantic MDR this May and June is a consequence of this stronger than normal NH jet stream for late spring. Expect the warm up in the MDR to continue in response to this pattern.
Let’s be clear that this year is a tough forecast. I suspect that we will see continued problems with intense October (and maybe November) hurricanes like 2012 and 2016 as Arctic sea ice retreats and high pressure builds over Greenland as darkness descends over the polar region. We might get another weird storm track like Hurricane Sandy’s. Time will tell. The sea ice is so thin this year and its volume is so low that we should expect the unexpected.
Good to see you back! Ive checked back now and then. I didn’t make the switch with Wunderground. This will do for me. Thanks for what you do!
what about the Gulf of Guinea??
this year the SST are not cold so
could this can impact negatively on the MDR ?
You saw the remnants of Beatriz were coming into the gulf and you were one of the first talking about it does it still look like it might formulate into a storm for Florida or New Orleans ?
Thanks again Levi for the great information, I not only live in Florida year around but have A sailboat which is also my home part of the summer.
Hope to not have to come here much , and you are not busy,
Puerto rico ARE un low, medium risk THIS hurricane season ir high potenciall, THANKS!
Well, I went through Himicane Matthew (Those named after a “man” are Himicanes, those named after a woman? A Hurricane!) and other than the county losing 300,000 trees, and power for parts of 5 days it was livable! Come to find out that when it passed Beaufort, sustained winds were 65 miles an hour, so I guess it wasn’t even a Himacane! As all Hurricane “experts” know, 90% of all Hurricane damage and 90% of all Hurricane fatalities occur within 3 miles of the beach! Of course, the speed of the Hurricane can cause extensive flooding if it’s only moving 3 or 4 miles an hour….but this one blew by at a 12-15 mile an hour clip! After a day and a half, you’d never would have known we got 9 inches of rain! The “Low Country” of SC soaks up water like a sponge!
Levi we rode out HUGO, so believe me, I take what you post very seriously and am grateful for your knowledge and insight to the average “non- meteorologist” person… Thank you .
Need some help here! I lost a very nice weather site that featured a Girl from South Florida that put a personal touch to her forecasts with music soundtracts and youtube videos! Can’t remember where I got it, but it may have been from this site!
Looks like more storms (cool eastern Pacific vs warm eastern Atlantic) but less intense (relatively cool mid Atlantic). If a storm can form well south (10 latitude or so) and move nearly east through relatively warm water then recurve near the Caribbean, the mid Atlantic and New England may be in trouble (warm water there).
Come on Levi need my tropical weather fix, sitting on my sail boat Sarasota area, I neeedss to know,
I really appreciate the time and knowldge you share with us,
Best tropical weather site around.
I found what I was looking for and lost! Here’s the link!
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