[Sunday] Invest 90L Likely to Become a Tropical Storm Soon – to Impact Yucatan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday
The tropical wave entering the western Caribbean is becoming better organized today. Significant pressure falls are being observed in the region between Jamaica and the coast of Honduras, and satellite data indicate that the wave axis is becoming better defined. Although some westerly shear is impacting the system, it is likely to lessen over the next day or so, and convection has been persistent during the last 24 hours. It is becoming more likely that 90L will become a tropical storm prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula later on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are likely to occur near and just north of where the low center moves ashore. Current model forecasts indicate that the center of the system will likely make landfall near or north of Chetumal, but until a well-defined circulation forms, there will be some uncertainty in the track. Regardless, interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor this system. Visit hurricanes.gov for the latest information.
After crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and emerging over the Bay of Campeche, 90L is expected to encounter favorable environmental conditions for strengthening, and it is possible that the eastern coastline of Mexico could face a hurricane threat sometime around Thursday. Details will be uncertain until the system moves into the Bay of Campeche.
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