Register | Login | Settings
Support this site:

patreon
Add our blog feed to your favorite reader.

Advertisement

Recent Posts

Posts by Date

August 2017
S M T W T F S
« Jul   Sep »
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  

Archives

[Wednesday Evening] Watching Tropical Storm Irma and the Gulf of Mexico

   Posted by Levi at 11:17pm on August 30, 2017


29 comments

   

Comments

  • Carol Mahler says:
    August 30, 2017 at 23:54

    Thank you, Levi. Although too early to forecast the track, you gave enough “maybe’s” to hang on to until more days pass and we watch. I am hoping it gets pulled north and is one of those “fish storms” that bothers no one. At least we have a chance, at this point. Much appreciate your information, always!

    Reply
  • Janiel Vargas says:
    August 31, 2017 at 00:00

    You’re giving next to no consideration to what the European has been depicting on its runs? Why is that, Levi?

    You were quite dismissive of its scenario for Irma, while giving way too much credence to what the GFS is depicting, especially when you consider its infamous poleward bias, in addition to its wretched proclivity to be overzealous when it comes to overly-amplifying every damn trough that comes off the East Coast.

    At this early stage in the game, I feel it’d be prudent and wise to give equal consideration to what both of our top global models are showcasing in terms of their output for Irma. When one begins to fall in line with the other, then you can solely focus ob just that one model. Until that materializes, however, I wouldn’t be so quick to prioritize one model over the other in these types of situations.

    No outcome should be discontinued with Irma at this time, when there are clearly a myriad of possibilities currently on the table.

    I hope you’ll take this into account in your future videos.

    Reply
    • Dave H says:
      August 31, 2017 at 00:42

      As Levi said, there’s a lot of uncertainty after day 5. At day 5, the location of Irma is nearly identical in the GFS and ECMWF. Not that Levi needs any defending him, but when useful and prudent, he does compare the models. For right now, it’s not, given the spread after day 5 and the agreement leading up to it.

      Reply
      • Kevin says:
        August 31, 2017 at 01:59

        Completely agree. Any hurricane geek knows what the European currently shows @ 240 hours. It certainly could happen, but so could the GFS. I actually thought it was smart to talk big picture and rely on the GFS if only to avoid folks staring at the European’s end result.

        Reply
        • Robert says:
          August 31, 2017 at 11:37

          Levi is the most balanced of the weather forecasters on the internet, TV, Radio, etc! He’s not an alarmist, like most of the weather channel geeks, who are paid bonuses I suspect, for making it sound like your house, 10 miles inland, will end up falling into the Atlantic Ocean!

          Reply
    • Nick Vegas says:
      August 31, 2017 at 22:14

      #rude

      Reply
  • Timmy tight pants says:
    August 31, 2017 at 00:08

    At the beginning of every video he states these are his thought and his only. He is not the BBC. If you look for official forecast then you are at the wrong place.

    Reply
  • harrycane says:
    August 31, 2017 at 00:22

    I appreciate all your insight Levi, you never let us down. I do realize there are many other models that are in the mix and anything could happen this many days out. I like the way you use the models and your own obvious expert opinions and look at the whole world as a giant chess board… I remember years ago, I asked you about an upcoming storm in the Atlantic basin and you started answering me by letting me know what was coming around the globe in Western Pacific. I was skeptical until a few weeks later what you had told me was spot on. VERY IMPRESSIVE. I have been monitoring your site ever since and very impressed with your accurate predictions. Much of the internet is filled with knuckleheads trying to sensationalize and predict gloom and doom to upset millions of people for nothing. As you said in the video, we have a week to ten days to determine its path. Keep us informed Levi, we need you insight into weather.

    Reply
    • Levi says:
      August 31, 2017 at 04:11

      Thanks a lot for the kind words! I appreciate it.

      Reply
    • Robert says:
      August 31, 2017 at 11:41

      I concur with your sentiments! Levi is the 1st place I go to for tropical weather forecasts for the simple reason that he’s not an alarmist trying to push up tv ratings and scare the begeebeez out of everyone this side of the Mississippi!

      Reply
  • Rob says:
    August 31, 2017 at 02:32

    The Euro Model should have been mentioned and IMO has been superior in general with tropical systems in the past. It’s way too early to talk about what may happen beyond 7 days but I feel Euro will have a handle on things before GFS.

    Reply
    • Levi says:
      August 31, 2017 at 04:14

      Sometimes, but not always. The Euro is one of our best models, but it doesn’t always win. Sometimes there’s a really good reason to favor one model over another, but sometimes you just don’t know which is going to be right.

      Reply
  • barnold says:
    August 31, 2017 at 10:47

    Hi Levi
    have been following your site for quite a while and appreciate your insight and information and have learned quite a bit.
    In your opinion do you think Irma is going to be a problem down the road for the Florida panhandle. We are having visions of Ivan.

    Reply
    • Levi says:
      August 31, 2017 at 11:27

      It’s simply too soon to know. Reliable forecasts for hurricanes are sometimes possible 3-5 days in advance, but if Irma were hypothetically to reach the Gulf of Mexico, it could be more than 10 days from now. Might as well throw darts at that point.

      Reply
  • Patrick says:
    August 31, 2017 at 11:06

    Levi…what happened to the analogs that were posted for each tropical system? That stuff was gold! Can you bring it back?

    Reply
  • FishOutofWater aka George says:
    August 31, 2017 at 11:45

    The latest runs of both the ECMWF and GFS models predict serious impacts on the U.S. but in very different locations. Of course, a ten day forecast is unreliable but now is the time to review your hurricane preparedness, not 3 days before landfall.

    The GFS model which takes Irma over the outer banks and right up the coast to New York city is a horrific scenario. The only good news is that 10 day forecasts are rarely correct, hurricane Matthew excepted.

    Reply
  • Rixster says:
    August 31, 2017 at 14:29

    Thank you very much for these posts Levi. I run a military weather station on the east coast and have encouraged my young forecasters to listen to your posts individually and corporately for group discussions. It both educates and provides an easily understood synopsis of the various models plus gives a great base for satellite training. I know this is just a side thing you do, but please know it is appreciated and anticipated by us. I do hope you’re able to keep it up. You are unique in your ability to communicate to a wide variety of weather geeks and non-meteorologists alike.

    Thank you
    -Rixster

    Reply
  • Derek S says:
    August 31, 2017 at 14:47

    whats the small little storm showing up in the gulf of mexico monday? anything to be concerned about?

    Reply
  • Gary Bern says:
    August 31, 2017 at 19:45

    Levi..
    I’m based in Freeport, Bahamas and Matthew came ashore 7 miles to the west of me. I’m at 26.6N 78.7W
    I used to scour everywhere looking for “just the facts” but usually got weather porn.

    Thanks for your sound information. Very much appreciated.

    Gary

    Reply
  • Kevin says:
    August 31, 2017 at 20:01

    Levi, Just made a donation. I am in the hurricane protection business in the Miami Area and have followed you since you were in Alaska.

    Thanks and keep up the good work, Kevin

    Reply
  • Rebecca Jacobs says:
    August 31, 2017 at 21:02

    Levi,
    Personally I think your videos are informative and awesome! Please don’t let negative comments stop you from doing the great job you do!
    Much Thanks,
    Beck in south Florida

    Reply
  • eaudree96 says:
    September 1, 2017 at 00:58

    Thanks…..

    Reply

    • Leave a Reply (comments from first-time posters are moderated)

    Your email address will not be published.

    Basic HTML is allowed.