[May 14] Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico Bringing Rain to Florida and Southeast U.S.

   Posted by Levi at 11:24am on May 14, 2018

An area of surface low pressure has developed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, entangled with an upper-level low. The system remains broad and disorganized this Monday morning, with only scattered convection and multiple vorticity maxima at various vertical levels. As a broad upper low or trough remains over the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, wind shear will be low enough to allow potential organization of this disturbance. Given weak steering currents, the system is expected to drift north or northwestward, eventually moving inland over the Florida panhandle in 2-3 days. This length of time could allow the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and the National Hurricane Center currently gives a 40% chance of this occurring.

Regardless of how much this system develops, periods of heavy rain will continue in the Florida Peninsula, and will spread northward into the Florida panhandle and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next few days.

IR Satellite Image as of 11am EDT Monday:

Forecast Additional Rainfall Through Thursday Morning:


20 comments

   

Comments

  • Stephanie says:

    Thanks for the update Levi. The only good part of hurricane season is your blog and videos!

  • GREGORY GOODMAN says:

    Levi this is greg in mobile will i be affected by this system?

  • Mike says:

    Back to tracking Tropical Tidbits, the finest source of Hurricane season information! Thanks Levi!

  • Mike Smith says:

    Welcome back Levi.

  • ossqss says:

    It is trying, but disorganized for certain. A Windy view.

    https://www.windy.com/?26.527,-83.710,7

    We desperately needed the rain here at SRQ.

    Howdy Levi!

  • BeachFoxx says:

    ‘Tis the Season!
    Always makes me miss the old days of WU.
    THANKS for this site.

  • Dave says:

    Dang, starting early this year, for sure.

    Time to order the backup generator, already have the wiring in place.

    SW FL was pretty exciting last year, want to be better prepared this time.

    Thanks for the update Levi.

  • Sean says:

    Levi, you rock! Thanks for doing this for us all!

  • MeteorologistGuy says:

    Levi, wasn’t the system better organized a few hours ago?
    It looks like the NHC decreased the chance of it forming.

  • Margot says:

    I agree with Stephanie. Swore I would not do another hurricane season in Florida last year – but still down here. Glad to see you back Levi – you do a great job!

  • Phil Morris says:

    Hi Levi, Great to have Tropical Tidbits back for the season. I am continually amazed at how you find the time to do such comprehensive analysis. I am more than satisfied with my investment. Keep up the great work. Everyone here should consider supporting you on Patron.

  • Michael ben Noah says:

    the NWS has labeled this as “non-tropical” due to the upper level dynamics, specifically they reference an upper level Low. I am very confused on this labeling. It appears to me that this “upper low” really originated out of an upper level cyclonically-rotated area between two STRs, and would therefore exhibit characteristics of a barotropic core. Ergo, “tropical.” There appears little to no baroclinity, and the “upper low” doesn’t move east or north with any appreciable speed (it appears to be trapped under the longwave ridge). Levi, others…ideas? help?

  • CherryCoke says:

    We back boys

  • Michael says:

    Great to have you back sir!

  • Steve says:

    Glad to have you back! Time to get the show on the road!

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