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May 2018

[Wednesday] – Tropical Disturbance Still Expected to Bring Heavy Rainfall to SE US Beginning this Weekend

   Posted by Levi at 11:07am on May 23, 2018

The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is still expected to bring extra rain to the southeast U.S. from Louisiana to Florida, likely beginning by Saturday. Note that frequent afternoon/evening rain is already occurring in these areas due to a moist air mass that has persisted since last week. The disturbance will move northward into the Gulf of Mexico and generate more consistent heavy rainfall, potentially for several days, as it will be moving slowly.

The National Hurricane Center now gives a 60% chance of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days. However, the potential for flooding due to heavy rains will occur even if the disturbance does not develop, so be prepared for excess rainfall into next week. Your local National Weather Service office will have more specific details for your local area as the event nears.

I may have a video update tonight or tomorrow.

Forecast Additional Rainfall for Next 5 Days:




  • Dave says:

    Thanks for the update, Levi! It’s good to have you back. Are you also planning on releasing an outlook for the season?

  • Benjamin Finaske says:

    I am looking forward to your video. They really are so informative. Thank you for all you do, Levi.

  • ossqss says:

    Thanks Levi, so much for the shrimp boil this weekend in SRQ!

    The models have been having a hard time with this one.

  • william avera says:

    please do a video, Levi! Your videos are always super informative and fun to learn from

  • Dennis in Naples says:

    Thanks for the info on this season’s first storm. Looks like it’ll be named Alberto!

  • Ryan Carver says:

    Please continue to wish this thing away from ruining my Bahamas Vacation this weekend!

  • J.B. says:

    What is your thoughts on where this will go, and how strong. Also, some areas along the gulf coast are dismal, or substandard pumping capacity, and flood easily.

  • Anonymous says:

    I want to become a hurricane expert

  • Georgia S says:

    Levi – Thanks for keeping us Floridians and fellow Tallahassee residents updated on the tropical systems.

    We appreciate your insights and warnings.

  • Janet says:

    Nice to see you back what you appear to love to do. Five day outlook from NHC is 90% as of Thursday. It’s trying to make it before the official season starts!

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