Zachary Kain says:

Statistically speaking, no. Hurricanes have centers of low pressure typically around 900-970 mb. If the high pressure remains over virginia or worse case scenario is lifted up to Baltimore/Philadelphia metros. NYC would have quite a bit of cushioning atmospherically.

Carol Mahler says:

Thank you so much for your always helpful and accurate analyses
that you share. I find your videos are the most accurate, the most helpful and the most informative. I always learn something from each one.

Mark says:

Thanks for the informative videos as always! Getting a little nervous here in Eastern VA. Pulling for that trough…

Daniel Olesen says:

I think iFlorence gained strength ahead of schedule for several reasons. One reason is the relatively drier, Saharan air layer tending to keep temps in the water and air at a different ratio than other seasons. It did seem to keep the lower latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean in rain and more stabilized versus dry and destabilized areas at higher latitudes!

Another related reason is mentioned by the National Hurricane Center:

Given the estimated maximum winds, Florence has been rapidly
intensifying since yesterday, an event that was not foreseen by any
intensity models, nor forecasters. Diagnostics from the SHIPS
model and UW-CIMSS shear analyses have been consistently showing
southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt in the vicinity of Florence, but it
is possible that those schemes are averaging over a larger area
than might be reasonable given the hurricane’s small size. Florence
has apparently been able to find a small pocket of relatively low
shear, and with waters becoming progressively warmer, the hurricane
has strengthened significantly more than anticipated. This makes
the intensity forecast incredibly uncertain.