• Current Storms
  • Aircraft Recon
  • Satellite Imagery
  • Forecast Models
  • Analysis Tools
  • About
Register | Login | Settings
Support this site:

patreon
Add our blog feed to your favorite reader.

Advertisement

Recent Posts

  • [Thursday Evening] Storm Forming in Gulf of Mexico; Storm Surge Flooding Threat to Western Florida
  • [Monday Evening] Jerry Passing Close to Bermuda; Karen Weak and Approaching Puerto Rico
  • [Thursday Evening] Jerry Strengthening but Expected to Pass North of Caribbean
  • Imelda and TD10 Form
  • [Friday Evening] TD9 Forms – Primarily Rain-Maker for Northern Bahamas

Posts by Date

September 2018
S M T W T F S
« Aug   Oct »
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30  

Archives

  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • May 2018
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • February 2015
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • March 2014
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • December 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011

[Tuesday Night] Gordon Nearing Landfall; Warily Monitoring Florence

   Posted by Levi at 9:04pm on September 4, 2018

Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center


38 comments

« Previous Entry   Next Entry »

Comments

  • Ethan Ayala says:
    September 4, 2018 at 21:38

    Hey Levi Cowan, I really appreciate the great work you do with tropical analysis. This is my first time commenting as well. True expert analysis you do, without jumping the gun or rushing to conclusion.

    I do have one question though. I live in NYC and am always keeping an eye on the tropics. I 100% understand that IF Hurricane Florence were to impact the U.S east coast it would be almost a week and a half away. But let’s just say that Hurricane Florence does take the western track in the end…Is it at all possible that the storm could impact the Northeast? Particularly NYC? Thanks to you again! Have a great day!

    Reply
    • Levi says:
      September 5, 2018 at 07:40

      It is impossible at this point to know who, if anybody, Florence could impact.

      Reply
  • Zachary Kain says:
    September 5, 2018 at 02:27

    Statistically speaking, no. Hurricanes have centers of low pressure typically around 900-970 mb. If the high pressure remains over virginia or worse case scenario is lifted up to Baltimore/Philadelphia metros. NYC would have quite a bit of cushioning atmospherically.

    Reply
  • Erin says:
    September 5, 2018 at 12:38

    Levi, what’s your take on the latest models for Florence shifting west? Do you think there’s any chance FL could be impacted or no?

    Reply
  • Carol Mahler says:
    September 5, 2018 at 15:33

    Thank you so much for your always helpful and accurate analyses
    that you share. I find your videos are the most accurate, the most helpful and the most informative. I always learn something from each one.

    Reply
  • Joe says:
    September 5, 2018 at 17:22

    Excellent analysis as always, thanks Levi. I hope with Florence strengthening to a major hurricane and it’s long-range track uncertain, the you’ll keep providing these updates.

    Reply
  • derrickderuiter says:
    September 5, 2018 at 19:33

    Good evening here from Saint Martin! Love your analyses.

    However, I seem to be having problems seeing your videos when I open your page in Firefox. In Explorer everything seems to be fine. However, Explorer …

    If I remember correctly I did not use to have this problem before. Is there a workaround to watch your vids in Firefox?

    Thanks! Keep up the good work. And let us drink to fish storms!

    Reply
  • H. Alvarez says:
    September 5, 2018 at 21:23

    Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!

    From the Dominican Republic.

    Reply
  • Mark says:
    September 5, 2018 at 21:41

    Thanks for the informative videos as always! Getting a little nervous here in Eastern VA. Pulling for that trough…

    Reply
  • Erin says:
    September 5, 2018 at 23:50

    If it looks like Florence is tracking more north than anticipated by most models, what exactly does this mean as far as chances of landfall on the east coast goes?

    Reply
  • Daniel Olesen says:
    September 6, 2018 at 01:39

    I think iFlorence gained strength ahead of schedule for several reasons. One reason is the relatively drier, Saharan air layer tending to keep temps in the water and air at a different ratio than other seasons. It did seem to keep the lower latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean in rain and more stabilized versus dry and destabilized areas at higher latitudes!

    Another related reason is mentioned by the National Hurricane Center:

    Given the estimated maximum winds, Florence has been rapidly
    intensifying since yesterday, an event that was not foreseen by any
    intensity models, nor forecasters. Diagnostics from the SHIPS
    model and UW-CIMSS shear analyses have been consistently showing
    southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt in the vicinity of Florence, but it
    is possible that those schemes are averaging over a larger area
    than might be reasonable given the hurricane’s small size. Florence
    has apparently been able to find a small pocket of relatively low
    shear, and with waters becoming progressively warmer, the hurricane
    has strengthened significantly more than anticipated. This makes
    the intensity forecast incredibly uncertain.

    Reply
  • HugeDong says:
    September 6, 2018 at 10:05

    Where you at LEVI?

    We need the Florence update. The big networks are hinting at a possible threat. The Huge Dong is currently anchored in the northern Bahamas.

    Reply
  • NaplesPatty says:
    September 6, 2018 at 12:34

    Just testing – joined as Patreon but there might be a mismatch with name.

    Reply
    • Brenda says:
      September 6, 2018 at 20:57

      Interesting

      Reply
  • heather says:
    September 6, 2018 at 19:21

    Hi Levi, can you explain how Florence went from a Cat 4 down to a tropical storm in 24 hours?

    Thanks for all that you do, you were my go to for Irma info last year.

    Reply
    • Mark says:
      September 6, 2018 at 20:25

      wind shear Levi talked about it here: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037662806311690240

      Reply
  • Corinne says:
    September 6, 2018 at 22:11

    Hello,

    I’m looking forward to your next update, because I’m only checking for it about 50 times a day lol. Your calm analysis, very simply put, has been very helpful in the last two hurricanes that hit my coast.

    Thanks for all that you do,

    Corinne
    Melbourne Beach, FL

    Reply
    • Levi says:
      September 7, 2018 at 08:46

      Thanks Corinne! I’ll likely start daily updates beginning tonight.

      Reply
      • floridagirl says:
        September 7, 2018 at 09:57

        Levi, your updates were my source of the most accurate information while seeing my family through Irma in Fort Myers. Now anytime we have an active Atlantic…you’re my man. Cannot thank you enough. Glad you are switching over to daily updates on Florence, been waiting for it.

        Reply
  • Shawn says:
    September 7, 2018 at 19:19

    I agree Floridagirl, these reports are the best I have seen. And has always been more accurate than any of the major news stations. Thanks Levi.

    Reply
  • Leave a Reply to heather Cancel reply

    Your email address will not be published.

    Basic HTML is allowed.



    Register and login to post comments easier:

  • Register
    • Login

    Post Archives:

    • October 2019
    • September 2019
    • August 2019
    • July 2019
    • June 2019
    • October 2018
    • September 2018
    • August 2018
    • July 2018
    • May 2018
    • October 2017
    • September 2017
    • August 2017
    • July 2017
    • June 2017
    • November 2016
    • October 2016
    • September 2016
    • August 2016
    • July 2016
    • June 2016
    • May 2016
    • October 2015
    • September 2015
    • August 2015
    • July 2015
    • June 2015
    • May 2015
    • February 2015
    • October 2014
    • September 2014
    • August 2014
    • July 2014
    • June 2014
    • May 2014
    • March 2014
    • October 2013
    • September 2013
    • August 2013
    • July 2013
    • June 2013
    • May 2013
    • April 2013
    • March 2013
    • December 2012
    • October 2012
    • September 2012
    • August 2012
    • July 2012
    • June 2012
    • May 2012
    • March 2012
    • February 2012
    • January 2012
    • December 2011
    • November 2011
    • October 2011
    • September 2011

    Jump to the top of this page


    Copyright © 2012-2019 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved.
    Contact info: levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com