Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center
Hey Levi Cowan, I really appreciate the great work you do with tropical analysis. This is my first time commenting as well. True expert analysis you do, without jumping the gun or rushing to conclusion.
I do have one question though. I live in NYC and am always keeping an eye on the tropics. I 100% understand that IF Hurricane Florence were to impact the U.S east coast it would be almost a week and a half away. But let’s just say that Hurricane Florence does take the western track in the end…Is it at all possible that the storm could impact the Northeast? Particularly NYC? Thanks to you again! Have a great day!
It is impossible at this point to know who, if anybody, Florence could impact.
Statistically speaking, no. Hurricanes have centers of low pressure typically around 900-970 mb. If the high pressure remains over virginia or worse case scenario is lifted up to Baltimore/Philadelphia metros. NYC would have quite a bit of cushioning atmospherically.
Levi, what’s your take on the latest models for Florence shifting west? Do you think there’s any chance FL could be impacted or no?
Thank you so much for your always helpful and accurate analyses
that you share. I find your videos are the most accurate, the most helpful and the most informative. I always learn something from each one.
Excellent analysis as always, thanks Levi. I hope with Florence strengthening to a major hurricane and it’s long-range track uncertain, the you’ll keep providing these updates.
Good evening here from Saint Martin! Love your analyses.
However, I seem to be having problems seeing your videos when I open your page in Firefox. In Explorer everything seems to be fine. However, Explorer …
If I remember correctly I did not use to have this problem before. Is there a workaround to watch your vids in Firefox?
Thanks! Keep up the good work. And let us drink to fish storms!
Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!
From the Dominican Republic.
Thanks for the informative videos as always! Getting a little nervous here in Eastern VA. Pulling for that trough…
If it looks like Florence is tracking more north than anticipated by most models, what exactly does this mean as far as chances of landfall on the east coast goes?
I think iFlorence gained strength ahead of schedule for several reasons. One reason is the relatively drier, Saharan air layer tending to keep temps in the water and air at a different ratio than other seasons. It did seem to keep the lower latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean in rain and more stabilized versus dry and destabilized areas at higher latitudes!
Another related reason is mentioned by the National Hurricane Center:
Given the estimated maximum winds, Florence has been rapidly
intensifying since yesterday, an event that was not foreseen by any
intensity models, nor forecasters. Diagnostics from the SHIPS
model and UW-CIMSS shear analyses have been consistently showing
southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt in the vicinity of Florence, but it
is possible that those schemes are averaging over a larger area
than might be reasonable given the hurricane’s small size. Florence
has apparently been able to find a small pocket of relatively low
shear, and with waters becoming progressively warmer, the hurricane
has strengthened significantly more than anticipated. This makes
the intensity forecast incredibly uncertain.
Where you at LEVI?
We need the Florence update. The big networks are hinting at a possible threat. The Huge Dong is currently anchored in the northern Bahamas.
Just testing – joined as Patreon but there might be a mismatch with name.
Hi Levi, can you explain how Florence went from a Cat 4 down to a tropical storm in 24 hours?
Thanks for all that you do, you were my go to for Irma info last year.
wind shear Levi talked about it here: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037662806311690240
I’m looking forward to your next update, because I’m only checking for it about 50 times a day lol. Your calm analysis, very simply put, has been very helpful in the last two hurricanes that hit my coast.
Thanks for all that you do,
Melbourne Beach, FL
Thanks Corinne! I’ll likely start daily updates beginning tonight.
Levi, your updates were my source of the most accurate information while seeing my family through Irma in Fort Myers. Now anytime we have an active Atlantic…you’re my man. Cannot thank you enough. Glad you are switching over to daily updates on Florence, been waiting for it.
I agree Floridagirl, these reports are the best I have seen. And has always been more accurate than any of the major news stations. Thanks Levi.
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