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September 2019

[Thursday Evening] Jerry Strengthening but Expected to Pass North of Caribbean

   Posted by Levi at 6:06pm on September 19, 2019

Note: apologies for fewer videos than usual – my schedule has been too busy in recent weeks. In the event of a major land threat in the Atlantic, I will do my best to post some. Remember that you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for more frequent updates on active storms.

Hurricane Jerry has strengthened quickly today within a window of slightly lower shear. Small storms are prone to rapid changes in intensity, and Jerry could continue intensifying tonight. However, shear will increase substantially on Friday, and Jerry is likely to weaken Friday and Saturday. The storm is expected to track well north of the Caribbean islands, though a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Leewards. Jerry could be in the vicinity of Bermuda in about 5 days, though per usual, uncertainty is large that far in advance.




  • Not a Real Tory says:

    I just wanted to let you know that I love this site. I’ve learned a HUGE amount from you and my sons are both fans as well.

    But I particularly love the videos because the combination of pictures with your explanations is outstanding. Also, you have a soothing voice that is a pleasure to listen to.

  • Carol says:

    Thanks Levi, you are generous to share your knowledge, the insights of yourself and Dr. Knabb are the only things that calm my nerves during hurricane season! Thank you!

  • Dale Justice says:

    No worries, thank you for all you do Levi!

  • J says:

    OK. Thanks for the update. Catch you on the flip side.

    • yrral says:

      The national weather service give hourly, update on all storms in the Atlantic, via National Weather Radio, they can be bought at a store

  • Elizabeth A. Bergmann says:

    Many thanks to you and all you have done on this website, Twitter and Facebook to help us all understand these very complex tropical systems and all the influences they may come under. Your videos and this website are much appreciated.

  • I’m vacationing in Antigua. 4 days ago I was confident it would pass well to the north and east and would weaken due to shear. It’s nice to be right. (Although it hasn’t weakened yet). Much of what I’ve learned came from your posts and resources. Thank you. And yes, I am a patron.

  • Horacio says:

    Although we will certainly miss your teachings, there is no imminent threat to land at this moment, so no urgent need for your always welcomed forecasts. Thank you much from the Dominican Republic.

  • Chris says:

    Thanks Levi – certainly keen on any Jerry updates for us in Bermuda.
    Just starting to recover from Humberto. We ended up recording Category 2 conditions on island, much worse than forecast. Many claiming it was worse than Cat3 direct hits in the past.
    Luckily we’re well built so no fatalities but 80% without power with some seroius damage.
    Looks a good chance of a direct hit from Jerry.
    Always appreciate your valuable insight. Cheers,

  • Jerrry says:

    Your video posting frequency is perfect for me. While I’d want to watch more, I probably wouldn’t have time. As an east-coast Floridian, approaching storms tend to focus my attention and your excellent in-depth analysis helps me to interpret the subsequent model runs. You always seem to be able to get them online when I’m anxiously awaiting one. Video or not, I’m at this site several times a day.

    Yes, my real name is Jerry and I am so happy that at least the predictions are that I won’t do any damage. I have a personal history of being unconventional. Let’s hope the storm doesn’t share that predilection.

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