Support TTWatching Four (maybe more?) Tropical Systems in the Atlantic
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Thanks for the update as always. Living in Florida gotta love those northern paths.
I assume you just forgot to mention the Cat 3 forming over Mexico.
A tropical wave reaches the southeast coast of the US. It will bring numerous thunderstorms and a lot of rain.
A cold jet stream from the Rocky Mountains formed the low in Texas with heavy rain.
Just ignore him and his CAT 2 intellect. Trolls are gonna troll. He’ll just come back as cyclonic syd or something.
He’s not the only one who occasionally posts as if he has something significant to say. However, he is the biggest pest.
Maybe. However, some models have recently shown (for multiple runs now) evidence of a significant-ish storm popping up over/near Mexico in the Gulf due to the intersection of a front and a low pressure system (I think). Is that worthy of some analysis, or is it just a blip and will disappear from predictions in a day or so?
The NHC does not show any x’s in the gulf so it’s really unlikely this future thing will develop if it’s a thing
btw enjoy these times before Tim comes back
I think he was booted or blocked? Hope so.
Yeah, but I think they only show those Xs if there’s a chance of formation in the next 5 days, and this would be outside of that realm.
I know, but models tend to get really funky after 3 days.
That’s true. Well, we’ll just have to wait and see I guess.
Do you think Paulette’s going to hit Bermuda?
I think it’s unlikely. However, it may come close to Bermuda and do some minor impacts.
It looks like the GFS-Para, CMC, and the ECMWF have a significant Paulette raking or hitting Bermuda in 5-6 days, the ICON and the JMA have a weaker Paulette missing a bit to the east, and the NAVGEM has it meandering way to the east of Bermuda. Could Paulette become a hurricane?
Models show Paulette weakening then intensifying to a strong TS. I think it’s very possible, but don’t expect anything too bad.
Thanks so much Levi!
Why is the Bermuda High so weak right now? Will it regain its bearings before the end of September?
Rather-it’s forecast to weaken more. Why is it forecast to weaken more, and will it regain its bearings before the end of September?
Levi, I’d be curious to know whether Renee, which is largely being ignored, is experiencing any damaging shear from Paulette, the storm in front of it.
They are showing in the GFS forecast model that Disturbance #2, just coming off of Africa now has a more southernly route… going through the area between Cuba and Mexico perhaps? That’s a scary path.
I was looking at that one earlier. I think Levi briefly showed a forecast path for it, which had it hitting the Atlantic and moving north immediately, but it’s definitely coming in further south and if it doesn’t move north then it’ll be one to watch.
The latest GFS has something hitting Florida hard around the 23rd of Sept.
And right now, there’s also an upper-level disturbance moving towards the Gulf (according to the NHC).
Ah, hurricane season…
I saw that too, Clay. I hope that track changes as I live on the east coast of Florida!
I’m on the west coast, so not going to get hit too bad on that predicted path.
However, since it’s coming up straight from the south, it won’t take much for it to hit on the west coast side instead of the east coast.
Hopefully the predictions change drastically between now and then.
Well I just watch it for today and funny enough, it’s now predicted to come in on the west coast side, directly hitting above north of Tampa where I am.
Joy… I live in Daytona and I knew we weren’t going to get out of this season without something big hitting us. I see that too now on the models, lets hope something will change.
Hi Cecilia…we are neighbors! I’m in Ormond Beach!
Hi Cat!
Agree, especially for Florida
Don’t worry; it probably won’t hit Florida since I’m there. The one time in recent history (beyond 2005) that all of Florida had a Big One (Irma), I wasn’t there for it. (Excluding Michael, which only really hit the FL Panhandle (in terms of land hit in Florida.))
It’s a conspiracy thing. Maybe because I pointed it out that would reverse the effects, but then if I point that out it would reverse THAT, and etc. so never mind.
But seriously, we did have more storms form in ’19 than in ’17, both notable years for hurricane seasons. However, in ’17 Florida got hit by Irma, whereas in ’19 we only got scraped by TS Nestor.
So maybe we’ll be spared this time. Who knows?
Thank you, Levi
You make the complex charts meaningful!
Thank you so much for the very understandable and concise update.
Atlantic jet stream pushes both tropical systems westward. Therefore, they come closer to each other.
The Paulette shear to the north will weaken and the storm will move west.
Thank you Levi for all your updates as I live I live on the east coast of Florida they are greatly appreciated
Ok. As a weather geek I can’t express my excitement enough, but is anyone brave enough to look at the 8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook?
Levi ought to make a video tonight.
Here it is: (poor forecaster Berg.)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
1. A trough of low pressure located just off the coast of North
Carolina is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move inland over eastern North Carolina
this afternoon, and therefore significant development is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.
2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas is
associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is
forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on
Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some
development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
3. Another trough of low pressure has developed over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
4. A tropical wave is now moving off the west coast of Africa,
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression
is expected to form by this weekend or early next week while the
system moves generally westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
5. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of
Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week while
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
Forecaster Berg
Two tropical systems in the middle Atlantic merge into one tropical wave.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif
The low over Texas, it reaches the Gulf of Mexico in the Corpus Christi area.
Hurricane Paulette’s eye is visible at 49W and 22N.
Nope, it’s the exposed circulation of paulette.