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September 2022
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[Sunday evening] Ian Strengthening; Significant Impacts to Cuba and Florida expected this Week

   Posted by Levi at 8:20pm on September 25, 2022


27 comments

   

Comments

  • Danielle Brown says:

    Thank you for speaking about storm surge and rising water because it’s not always about winds!!! You are so knowledgeable, I appreciate you so much.

  • Celeste Mark says:

    Thank you for explaining all of this so we can understand it more clearly. So that we are more informed and this will allow us to prepare and it reduces our stress.

  • Anonymous says:

    I don’t personally live in any of the areas at risk, but I know it must be terrifying to know a storm like Ian is coming. My prayers go out to anybody who may be affected by this storm.

    • Paul Ross says:

      I well remember when you were just a kid in Alaska posting on the old Wunderground blog.
      You were sharp back then and am not surprised you are now Dr.Levi.
      If you are ever in the Pensacola area I will buy you a beer or 2.
      Thanks for an excellent post. You are the man!

      Paul Ross

  • Jackie says:

    Everybody keep calm and listen to Levi. Thanks, Levi.

  • Ana says:

    I thought the latest European model showed it somehow weakening to a 1 before it hits the coast. Same track but weaker storm.

    • Loves2Read says:

      I saw that too—think it depends on how soon it hits land
      Levi said the longer it goes north the weaker the winds will be but that was when it was landing in the Big Bend area—

      Some people I have seen post on various platforms has mentioned hearing it might stall out around Tampa and just rain for day which would be what happened in Houston with Charley—it just wandered around dropping rain for two days and flooded 3 counties or more

  • Anonymous says:

    I live in the Tampa Bay Area. I am very concerned about the wind damage. We live around many trees. I am praying that the hurricane gets weaker before making landfall. Thank you for all the good information

  • Anonymous says:

    Thanks for your level headed, descriptive, and educational posts. Waiting to see how this impacts the launch schedule @ KSC

  • Jaelyn says:

    How confident are you in the gfs? It had from today a today….fropa a) for us in montgomery. It barely happened. It didn’t happen really. More like a shear out. Definitely elongated. Everyone knows the models never handle the first cold front correctly. Are you giving any wiggle room for the failure of models despite more radiosondes! Models to handle the season’s first cold front? Asking for a friend. More over at 8 pm this thing wasn’t even a hurricane yet…..But two days ago they said it would be by now. I don’t know what to make of their forecasts. I am confused.

    • Levi says:

      Ian is following intensity forecasts pretty closely right now, perhaps a smidge slower to start ramping up, but it looks like its transition into a hurricane has begun tonight. As for the models, it’s always hard to “trust” any particular model. We will likely see shifts back and forth from all of them. This is why the NHC typically takes an average of multiple models to inform their forecast.

  • Jp says:

    How can Reinhardt say it is slowing and filling In The disscussion. When the forecast track doesn’t slow? Or follow? Is the disscussion meant for a different audience? Like the globalists?

    • Levi says:

      Ian does slow down on the NHC forecast, but the time interval between the track points on their forecast graphic changes from 12-hourly to 24-hourly after 72 hours, so it may appear artificially that the storm is moving faster due to the extra spacing between points.

  • Anonymous says:

    the water vapor image seems powerfully moving from west to east and think that will be the final determining variable of where landfall is unless the water vapor trail changes shape

  • GreggSRQ says:

    I remember Wunderground, got on there in 2006. Your posts were always 1 of the 2 best about hurricanes. Your website is the best out there now. I do miss Dr Masters and everyone on there. Really like all like on yor site. Glad to see your dreams came true.
    Keep up the great work. I imagine you love the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
    GreggSRQ

    • GreggSRQ says:

      I remember Wunderground, got on there in 2006. Your posts were always 1 of the 2 best about hurricanes. Your website is the best out there now. I do miss Dr Masters and everyone on there. Really like all like on yor site. Glad to see your dreams came true.
      Keep up the great work. I imagine you love the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
      GreggSRQ
      Been in Tampa bay since 2000. This one is going to be the worse! Hoping i’ll be prepared.

  • Anonymous says:

    40 hours of storm surge from a major? Omg.

  • Ray says:

    Latest radar imaging shown on TWC shows a dry slot trying to wrap around. They do not think this will have much impact overall, just maybe slow down the intensification until it gets cycled through.

    Side note, my son and his partner live in the Tampa area and I just talked to him and they are staying. He is a photojournalist for one of the local TV stations so I expect he will be having a very busy next several days.

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