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September 2022

[Saturday Evening] TD9 gets named Ian; Significant Hurricane Expected to impact Caribbean and U.S.

   Posted by Levi at 6:39pm on September 24, 2022




  • Andres says:

    Thanks for the video! I really appreciate the info.

  • Gail Hankinson says:

    Thanks so much for your comprehensive presentation of this complex system. Preparing in Tallahassee.

  • chris evans says:

    Thanks for the video. I think the GFS is quite crazy in some of its ensembles though I agree with its assesment of a very hostile environment in the northern gulf. I mean the north shore is going to be in the 50s some nights next week! There is going to be some serious dry air and shear. The EURO seems to show that the storm would want to get away from it.

  • Anonymous says:

    Dr. Rick is a total drama queen. I don’t trust anything he says,
    Listen to Levi not that clown. TWC should get rid of him.

    • chris evans says:

      I agree. I have never seen somebody get so giddy about the possibilities of storms. I appreciate calm assertions. I don’t know if showing all the ensembles to the general public is a great idea. They can be greatly bewildering without expertise.

      • Anonymous says:’s idiots like him that make people doubt the media in every subject.

        • Anonymous says:

          All of the legacy media themselves are to blame for the people’s distrust of them, not Dr. Rick. The people are right to distrust everything the media broadcasts. The media chooses to promote propaganda and frame a narrative, and not present truth. You appear to be defending the propaganda the media spews forth every day by blaming the viewer’s fatigue and mistrust on Dr. Rick.

          • Anonymous says:

            I’m not defending anything. I think all media lies to us for ratings.
            Fake news?

          • Anonymous says:

            I see what you are saying. Every subject presented by the media is presented by newscasters similar Dr. Rick.

    • Scott says:

      We LOVE Dr. Rick! Speak for yourself.

      • Anonymous says:

        I just did. Love him all you want. Your choice.
        Dr. Steve was the best on TWC. Calm not a raving nut job.

    • Anonymous says:

      Dr. Rick has a function. It is to increase sales at home improvement stores and the supermarkets. If there is an outlying spaghetti string, it’ll get talked up.

  • Suzanne Brockmann says:

    Thank you!!!

    Your video blogs are excellent. I appreciate your calm presentation of the fascinating science!

  • Jim I. says:

    I’m thinking landfall around the Homosassa area.

  • Carl M. says:

    Tropical Atlantic Saharan dust will suppress any development of the wave off Africa headings westward. It is not expected to be much development wise.

  • Scott says:

    NHC is forecasting a drastic decrease in wind speed just before it hits the coast (from a cat 4 to a cat 1)…that seems pretty drastic to me. Is it possible if Ian is strong enough, that it could fight the shear and just chug it out of it’s way (like Michael did with the dry air) and hit the coast at least as a major hurricane?

    I’m just finding it a bit hard to believe that the system will weaken from 140 down to 90 within a couple hundred miles of landfall. That seems like wishful thinking to me.

    • chris evans says:

      It has happened before. The Hurricane that hit Louisiana about this time in 2002 went from a 4 to a 1 at landfall. People were angry at the NHC for whiffing on the forecast. They had forecast super strong and been wrong. I would have thought people would have been happier.

      • Carl M says:

        People bemoan the economic impact of shutting down for an evacuation. The looting, the inconvenience, the expensive of loss revenue, the economic shock wave that follows a miss. A hurricane that hits an area causes blight, and despair. That whole area never recovers economically, or people mentally. The insurance companies don’t pay.

      • TJ says:

        Hurricane Lillie I was in Baton Rouge and went to bed scared to death thinking I’m not far enough inland. I woke up about 1am and it had dropped significantly and it just kept dropping. I for one was thankful

    • Steve says:

      Floyd did the same thing for largely the same reason. Dry continental air, and then possible (probable) evaporative cooling of that air as it moves into the storm.

    • chris evans says:

      I think the track might make that difference. The GFS takes it right into that shear and dry air. The EURO tries to stay away from it. Even the always worst case scenario maker HWRF acknowledges these hostile conditions. Every storm is so different.

      • Scott says:

        Yup, GFS now starting to move back to the west towards the Euro. But this system looks like a total joke to me, it’s not doing anything (but weakening as of right now). I’m thinking this got hyped up too quickly!

  • Anonymous says:

    Ian appears to be one heck of a mess in IR, hopefully that impacts how strong it becomes

  • James Gill says:

    Thank you Dr Levi. You are so highly respected. Just the facts!

  • Lifeguard Joe says:

    Subscribed…and thanks Dr Levi.

  • Itoldyouso says:

    Ian, now down to 45mph, was suppose to be a Hurricane already (if not a major one). Starting to think this is going to be a dud!

  • Anonymous says:

    Oh crud, Ian is at 991 mb, but 9 hours ago it was at 1003 mb… the storm is starting to intensify rapidly, my prayers go out to those in the Cayman Islands and in Western Cuba.

  • Dave says:

    Remember the last time I went to Home Depot to buy a generator and all the other hurricane paraphernalia. Cashier said we never have a hurricane during a La Niña. And I said did you tell the hurricane that🤣

    We had three back-to-back hurricanes that year

  • Jaelyn p. says:

    How can I find your Sunday night\evening report and analysis? So glad I discovered this site…from drudge which I only look at for a counter to liberty daily and citizens free press;because drudge linked your spaghetti model plots. Which are hard to locate with a mere google search. I used to practice meteorology decades ago…especially tropical. And I know you all have to toe the party line. So I know the predicament you are in…if you professionally intiut….a different outcome. Yet so much has changed….for models et al. Since when I practiced. But don’t Jamaica and the Cayman now have Doppler radar? Can you link them in? I know one is out for mechanical failure….allegedly. It’s okay to rest on Sunday. Nothing we can do about Ian anyway….except if collective consciousness is real – then only one percent need to think hard and deep….and …..change things. When our thoughts change from…. “I hope it dont hit me” to “I pray it doesnt hit anyone”….then Dr Greer is onto something. Until that remote end. Can you link radar too?

  • redactle says:

    I really like seeing your video blogs. I really like how you explained this intriguing subject without getting too excited.

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