Atlantic quiet for now; Watching for GOM Development June 18th-25th

   Posted by Levi at 7:42pm on June 8, 2012

The Atlantic is currently quiet, with the only feature of interest being an old frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico that poses no significant threat for tropical development over the next few days, though it will bring rainfall to the gulf coast. As discussed back when Beryl was making landfall in Florida, the first half of June here is quiet, and will continue to be so through at least the 15th.

However, the signs for the next round of tropical activity have already been showing themselves, as the MJO is unanimously forecasted to come back into phases 8 and 1 in 10-15 days, bringing upward motion back to the Atlantic. At the same time, the models are forecasting anomalous ridging to develop over the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay region, and the fact that these anomalies are that far north means we have to watch to the south of the ridge for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean. All of the ensemble means show a significant lowering of pressures in the region after Day 10, with about half of the GFS ensemble members and CMC ensemble members all showing tropical development of some kind during the 10-15 day period.

The CPC analogs based off of the GFS ensemble Day 11 forecast are also very interesting. Looking at the top 3:

1) June 23rd, 1989 – Allison developed the next day and moved into Texas.

2) June 2th, 2005 – Arlene developed 6 days later and moved into Florida as a near-hurricane.

3) June 27th, 1975 – Amy developed in the Bahamas and moved up towards North Carolina.

So one can see that in very similar patterns to the one we are headed into, development has occurred multiple times. We always have to watch to the south of big ridges over the Great Lakes, as it usually means trouble of some kind. Notice that when Alberto and Beryl formed, a blocking ridge was found to their north over New England and the NW Atlantic, but here the ridge is shifting west, implying that the development region should shift west with it, and the Gulf of Mexico will have a shot at early-season development. Details on any potential development here will remain vague for a while since it is still a long ways out, but the period of June 18th-25th will likely see a significant uptick in activity in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

We shall see what happens!


22 comments

   

Comments

  • Storm Walsh says:
  • Levi says:

    I think I may have fixed comments now.

    • Levi says:

      Testing to make sure they still work in WordPress 3.4

    • Soussa says:

      I knew about Lesotho because of Prince Harry, Wills’ brhtoer, whose charity, Sentimbale, serves children there. I think he did his “gap year” there, or part of it, and really liked it…

  • Cliff Hammond says:

    Let’s check it out, then. This is a test and also a thank you for today’s tropical tidbit. I’ll have to tell my brother that he may get a tropical storm or hurricane on his birthday, June 25. ;)

  • WxGeekVA says:

    Great blog Levi!

    • Poni says:

      Soit TF1 ne croit plus en Chuck ou n’a pas de case de libre pour diffuser la se9rie.Prenez l’exemple de Greys Anatomy saiosn 6 (pas le meame e9diteur) qui se disponible avant sa diffusion, on peut espe9rer le meame sort qu’a CHUCK.

  • Joanie says:

    Hey Levi…

    VERY informative tidbit there..GOOD JOB!!!!! I enjoy reading them and watching the videos !!! :)

    • Dominik says:

      Posted on I’ve been absent for a while, but now I rebemmer why I used to love this site. Thanks , I will try and check back more frequently. How frequently you update your web site?

  • David Denman says:

    Great post Levi! Very informative and well articulated. I appreciate your efforts.

  • Mj says:

    Great post – the graphics make it easier for us novices to understand and learn.

  • duff says:

    I live in Panama city Beach, and I was here during Eloise in “75”. and 2005 was not a good year either, Arlene, Dennis”very close call” and Katrina, we thought it was coming here first. I know you can ony look at the past to try to see the future but I have a bad feeling about this year. What are your thoughts?

    • Levi says:

      Well there’s good and bad news. It’s an El Nino year and the season overall should be near-normal, but storms are also likely to develop closer to the coast, with more “home-grown” storms like we have already seen with Alberto and Beryl. This can make a seemingly quiet season memorable with several landfalls, but the good news is often such storms have less time over water to become very strong. A bad landfall can happen in any year of course.

      • Adam says:

        Abnormal this post is totaly utnleared to what I used to be looking google for, but it surely was once listed on the first page. I suppose your doing one thing right if Google likes you enough to position you at the first web page of a non related search.

  • duff says:

    I thought the ENSO was going to be neutral, like in 2005?

    • Levi says:

      If it does remain neutral it will be very close to the El Nino threshold, and 2005 was closer to the La Nina theshold and getting colder throughout the summer, not warmer as we are this year. That makes a big difference. This year’s ENSO trend is much less favorable for an active Atlantic season.

      • Ahmed says:

        I agree with Elaine, the best price in the UK Levi quality, bound to fit, the only clithong you can reliably buy online delivered before the delivery estimate and helpful response from Jon at Buy Jeans Outlet when the website would not let me order my size. 5 stars without a doubt.

        • Cristina says:

          These images are just beuifutal. The light is unreal! I have followed Ashley for a while (I’m a healthy living blog nut!) so it’s so fun to see her wedding pictures. Your work is amazing!

    • Ulises says:

      Yet another issue is that video games can be siroeus anyway with the principal focus on learning rather than entertainment. Although, we have an entertainment element to keep your sons or daughters engaged, each one game is normally designed to work towards a specific skill set or curriculum, such as math or technology. Thanks for your post.

  • Mike says:

    Thanks! Lets hope TS Allison was a once in a lifetime event!

  • Andy in NOLA says:

    Great work, nice new site!

  • Chantal says:

    Hi Gail,The event is at the Best Western Cedar Park Inn on Gateway. Class starts at 10:00 on Friday! Please bring your lap top decive and a power cord. See you there!Love and LightAdam

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