GOM Development Possible Late Next Week – Ghost of Allison?

   Posted by Levi at 2:47pm on June 12, 2012

The developing pattern continues to look favorable for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico later next week as the MJO moves into phase 1, lending upward motion support to the western Atlantic, which is usually necessary for getting a June development. The ridging pattern over the Great Lakes also supports piling up of air to the south of the United States, which leads to upward motion and lowering of pressures in the Gulf of Mexico, and this is being echoed by all of the models. What the models are not seeing consistently yet is actual development of a storm, with only last night’s CMC currently showing one, but we are still 7-12 days away. The models will likely become more consistent one way or another once the MJO stops racing across the Pacific and settles down in phase 1, which it is forecasted to do.


Figure 1. 0z CMC 240-hour forecast

The pattern looks very similar to when Allison formed in June 1989, as well as the more recent Allison in June 2001. Here are their tracks:


Figure 2. The tracks of the Allisons of 1989 and 2001.

Both storms were very similar, both moving quickly into Texas and then getting blocked, causing flooding. In the video I show the pattern that led to the blocking of both storms and compare it to the similar ensemble forecasts for next week, and the retrogressive pattern that occurred during both Allisons is supported by the currently very progressive MJO. This is a pattern that favors development more than usual for June standards, but even further than that, we may have to watch for the ghost of Allison with this setup, where a quick-hitting storm tries to develop in the gulf, move inland, and then potentially get blocked, either over land or water, causing a heavy rain event for the gulf coast.

We shall see what happens!


11 comments

   

Comments

  • EagleHarborZig says:

    Great report Levi. It is good that Florida is mostly sand, we have had about 16″ of rain in 3 days and it looks like more is on the way. Glad to see you have the blog working again.

    I was explaining your thoughts from the past warm winter and the current wet summer to some people and they thought I knew more than the weather Channel. thanks for making everything so easy to understand and explain to others.

  • Joanie says:

    Very good Job Levi!! I love your tidbits..very informative…you help us understand how the weather patterns take shape…absolutely fantastic Levi!!!!

    Joanie

  • Kim says:

    Great Work Levi,

    Thanks for the keeping us informed,

    • Almalie says:

      Dear Todd family,Congratulations to you on the birth of your btefaiuul son, Levi!I stumbled onto your blog and your Twitter feed somehow and I am so thankful that I did. I am a mom to two children Sydney is my 16yr old daughter and Samuel is my 5yr old son.Our Samuel has Down Syndrome.Your life has been blessed by a miracle that you never thought you needed or would be able to fit into your plans for your family. It will not always be easy but your little one will always be worth the new trials and lessons you will learn, the community and people who are here waiting to embrace you with open arms and honest hearts, the love and preciousness of individuality that he will teach you, and God’s grace and love that he will fill your heart and soul with.We are all here, celebrating your little miracle, united with you as parents, ready to help as we all move ahead on our journey.. just a couple of steps ahead of you.Congratulations again to all three of you. And welcome to the world little Levi.God bless you all.Sari(Sx3inSC on twitter)

  • Mark says:

    Headed to South Louisiana the end of next week. I will be anxiously awaiting updates!!!

    • Alton says:

      – super duper excited to have you over at Elle’s Studio! you will love wokinrg with her what an awesome team- and i have to agree with your PS!! made me laugh out loud!!!

    • Monica says:

      I wanted to share a sneak peek from my shoot with these adbalore six-month-old twins. I can’t wait to share more images from our session this weekend. They have grown up so much since their newborn session in January.

  • Mike says:

    Great to see you starting to ramp up! Looking forward to more of the same.

    • Mhammad says:

      when I install vesoirn 1.2.6 it gives me this when I activate it Fatal error: Cannot redeclare catablog_activate() (previously declared in /blog/wp-content/plugins/catablog/catablog.php:37) in /blog/wp-content/plugins/catablog/catablog.php on line 51

  • Maka says:

    Joy,Thanks for you input, as always it is apteacirped. I am aware that WordPress lets you attach images to posts, and I do like the idea of sticking with as much native WordPress code as possible. One reason why I wrote my own image upload code when I moved CataBlog to custom post types and didn’t just use the post thumbnail or attach image to post was I wanted more direct control over the images. I wanted control over how the image is resized and the possible background color of non cropped images. Another reason was my past frustrations with NextGen Gallery, and how it handled multiple image uploads. All the images processed in one post, terrible if you need to upload forty high resolution images at once, my server kept running out of memory. So when I designed CataBlog I broke up the image processing into different AJAX calls so the server could flush its memory after each image is processed, yes slower, but no memory errors. If CataBlog was a full time job I would redesign much of it, but as it goes I think it serves it purpose rather well.- Zach

  • Mukesh says:

    Hi Dave,You can play with the CataBlog template all you want, but it won’t fix your prlobem. After looking at your page in a debug console (firebug, chrome developer tools) it is plain to see that all your jQuery functions are failing. This is most likely due to your WordPress theme or other plugins you have enabled.Please try disabling all other plugins and switching to the twentyten theme to verify this.The thing that sticks out to me the most is that you are loading jQuery twice, this is very bad. You are loading a version from google and you are loading a version from your local server. I would only load the version from your local server, if it was me.Let me know if fixing that issue fixes all your JavaScript issues. Also I would highly recommend learning about a tool such as Firebug to test and debug your sites CSS and JavaScript.

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