Tropical Development Likely to Affect Western Gulf of Mexico in 6-10 Days

   Posted by Levi at 5:52pm on June 15, 2012

As we have been talking about for a while now, tropical development is still favored in the western Gulf of Mexico later next week and into next weekend. The monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific and western Caribbean will be slowly swelling northward with time into next week, and the fact that Hurricane Carlotta in the eastern Pacific is moving close to the Mexican coastline instead of out to sea illustrates that this is already beginning to occur. This pattern is being strongly supported by an intense MJO wave moving into phases 8 and 1, and it is this kind of support that most Atlantic June storms form under. The pressure pattern over North America and the western Atlantic favors low-level convergence (piling up of air) in the western gulf, and this, combined with the strength of the oncoming MJO, is why I have been adamant about the significant possibility of tropical development, despite only little model support. The models are slowly coming more onboard now, with the CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, and at times the ECMWF showing at least a closed low developing of some kind. The ensemble means continue to strongly support a very wet and convective pattern in the northwest gulf in about a week’s time. Sea surface temperatures are also running 1C above normal in the entire western gulf, 28-29C in most areas, and would provide plenty of fuel for tropical development.

The video above details the overall setup that should lead to an attempt at development. The exact timing and location of such a development still can’t be known over a week out, but the general idea here continues to be that the western gulf should light up with activity that could bring heavy rains to northern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana, very similar to the patterns of Allison in June 1989 and Allison in June 2001. The same kind of blocking pattern could either cause a potential storm to stall near Texas as the Allisons did, or it could simply turn the storm westward into Texas or Mexico. The models currently favor the latter scenario, but this will be determined by the exact timing of development and how far north the potential system gets. The overall idea to keep in mind right now while we are still 6-10 days away is that the northwest Gulf of Mexico is going to get a shot of significant tropical activity, with a significant possibility of the development of a tropical storm, and at least a bout of heavy rains regardless.

We shall see what happens!


18 comments

   

Comments

  • Storm Walsh says:

    Nice job, Levi!

  • Kath Gilliam says:

    Thanks so much, Levi. I feel equipped and informed after watching your update. I live in Houston, so while I watch all of your updates, this one is particularly relevant to me.

    • Rebecca says:

      Thanks for the video, i discovered them on my land a few years ago where they grow wild near the creek, I love to go To the Paw Paw Patch and bring them to the house, never thhugot about recipes with them just eat them fresh. The deer love them too Also I love your videos, you are an inspiration to me! Ilove chickens also! 10,000 Joys, Denise

  • stefanie says:

    Thanks Levi. I hope nothing strong forms wherever it may go but a big sloppy rainy tropical storm moving west through south Texas would be ok as long as it kept moving. :)

  • Terry Siemsen says:

    Nice job here, Levi! Your analysis and rationale are always helpful and easy to follow. Please keep up the good work…

  • Joanie says:

    Thanks Levi!! Always look forward to your tropical tidbits…very informative!! I live in Louisiana…we sure can use some rain…but nothing strong in nature of course..:)

    • Lucas says:

      Er det dig, der har kf8bt den? Jeg ventede bare pe5 at fe5 lf8n, se5 jeg kunne ervehrve mig en, men da lf8nnen kom var jakkerne allesammen forsvundet fra Urban Outfitters. De plejede ellers at have et helt stativ med dem ne6sten.. d8v.

      • Abhay says:

        Stephanie Posted on Great! Awesome!1st up the wedding china my moethr gave me 18 years ago, while saying, with a VERY disappointed voice Well since it seems that you aren’t getting married any time soon, I might as well give this to you now. I’ve been carrying them around, thru 3 moves, thinking that I ought to keep them, that I would somehow curse myself or jinx myself if I got rid of them..that I would indeed end up alone.Guess what? Yep, I am still single. I’ve had a couple of relationships between then and now, but the end result? The dishes are not magical and I don’t have to expend any energy trying to make myself feel better about the dishes so that I can keep them.So, I am hereby embracing the real possibility that I may never be married and commit the dishes to craigslist, may they be gone in a wink and trouble me no more LOL!Thank you for the entertaining video about a serious subject.

  • weatherh98 says:

    Is this connect to wunderground?

  • Jason says:

    Hey Levi,
    Keep up the good work you do a great job at telling us what is going on and you are very thorough. I do have a question for you I live in the Beaumont, Tx area is this possible tropical system going to be any thing to worry about and will it effect my area.

    • Levi says:

      Hi Jason,

      You could get some rain out of this situation, though you probably won’t be in the middle of the most intense weather since the ridge to your north will be limiting the northward progress of rainfall. This system shouldn’t be anything to worry about since it will be very slow to organize and shouldn’t get very strong (it may not even develop at all).

  • Joanie says:

    Levi,what about Louisiana?? I live in Central Louisiana, just wondering if we are going to have any effects of this system…Thanks Levi in advance..:)

    • Levi says:

      Again, rainfall will be hard pressed to get that far north, but some wetness is possible, and will depend on the exact location of low pressure development in the gulf. Overall most of the impacts should be felt farther south in south Florida and south Texas.

      • Joanie says:

        Thank you Levi for your response! Much appreciated!! :)

        • Manav says:

          Brava Girl clear and precise well oregzinad warm and encouraging I’m from the north west on the Canadian side of our amazing border. When I was very young I remember singing a silly song about Pickin’ up pawpaws ‘ and finding out many years later that the pawpaws’ part referred to fruit. I’m pretty sure that it is too cold here to actually grow but it was a fun song. I get a kick out of some of the comments Hoosier Banana and certainly find them interesting Pawpaws/Graviola

    • Catalina says:

      This review rlaley triggered my interest for Levi The Poet. Seems like an interesting release. The cover art is a bit weird though from my point of view looks like it’s taken from a 1900 dentists’ journal or something:-)

  • Angela says:

    Hmm it appears like your wibsete ate my first comment (it was extremely long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I had written and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I too am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to everything. Do you have any tips for novice blog writers? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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