*Updated 7pm Wednesday* – Watching Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for Potential Development – Rainfall the Main Hazard

   Posted by Levi at 12:07am on August 14, 2013

Update 7pm EDT Wednesday:

Invest 92L continues to organize in a gradual fashion today, as expected. However, the system is somewhat decoupled, with the low-level wave axis to the west of the main area of convection and the mid-level vort max. This means that 92L may not be able to develop into a tropical depression prior to running into the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 12-24 hours. Either way, the impacts will be the same for central America, with heavy rain and potential flooding being the primary hazards. If 92L doesn’t develop before hitting the Yucatan, it will have another chance on the other side in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the trough to the north will likely string its moisture out towards the north gulf coast, and if the system is unable to consolidate, we may never see it develop significantly. However, it is prudent to wait for 92L to clear the Yucatan before judging how it may behave in the gulf. The forecast philosophy presented in yesterday evening’s post remains essentially unchanged today, so I am leaving the video and forecast graphic below for this evening due to time constraints. Current information, satellite loops, and model tracks for 92L can be found at the storm information page.
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If you are having trouble viewing the embedded video below, try the direct Youtube link


17 comments

   

Comments

  • cchsweatherman says:

    Excellent analysis as always on the complicated situation unfolding in the Caribbean. I know your policy usually is to concentrate on threats closer to land, but any analysis or thoughts on the rather impressive wave coming off Africa?

    • Levi says:

      It looks nice at the moment. Seems to be a Dorian-like situation where if it moves too far north it will hit cool water, but it is warmer this time. In a year like this during late August and September almost every wave that comes off has to be watched. This one will probably have to develop during the next 5 days if it’s going to have a chance farther west.

  • Jason Scott says:

    Levi, Once again I have to disagree with you on the western movement … I will turn to the north and then northeast and be a Major Flood event up the east coast . I don’t see it going to Mexico or Texas ..

    Jason Scott

  • Jason Scott says:

    I also don’t think it will be much more then a 60 MPH Tropical Storm …

  • sailingunc says:

    Hi guys and gals…new to this forum, but hope you don’t mind an old sailors early comments? Interesting setup…if the wx developing in Carribbean gets organized and heads north instead of west…which I think is a good chance…it might have a chance of interacting wtth that African wave and ride the existing cold front up the east coast as the front receeds north next week? That could give us an interesting situation with potential heavy rains and high tides, if not TS or more by end of next week? Just a thought. Unc

  • Dave P. says:

    I always say if you have a different opinion,then give proof.Rather then just throw words out their.

  • Anonymous says:

    Hi, also new here…
    I personally hope it moves westward, the area where it is going to make landfall needs a lot of water… They’re having problems with agriculture & all that stuff. They really need the rain, and also in my place it will cause severe storms hehe ;)
    But only the winds will decide. Lets see how it moves. You can see how it goes through the Yucatan peninsula here: webcamsdemexico.com

  • JWwx says:

    Hey Levi, is there a place the public can find something that centers on the eye of the storm as it tracks somewhere! I think I’ve seen you use something on previous videos in years past! Thnx

  • Andrew says:

    A few days age I guessed that if 92 L stays weak and doesn’t stack, the mid level low and associated moisture would head northeast. If 92L gets much stronger and the storm”s upper high due to outflow would help push the storm toward the Northwest. That is opposite of what typical tropical systems do.

    Levi, do you think as I do that the Atlantic Ocean reaches a dipping point where favorable conditions actually pull the favorable MJO pattern towards the Atlantic basin.

    You aptly pointed out that both the aquatic and atmspheric conditions are closely related.
    You also pointed out that the signs are strong for a very active but shorter hurricane season. It appears that your forecast has been true to begin with.

    • Levi says:

      Yes, unstable conditions, usually primarily fueled by warmer than average SSTs, can “pull” the MJO towards that area of the world. Other factors like extratropical influences can also play a part in this. The ongoing cool outbreak over most of the US is likely a role player in why the MJO is forecasted to come back to the Atlantic during the next two weeks.

  • Emerald Peace says:

    I think that this storm has a greater probability of impacting the central Gulf coast region than upper MX/lower TX. My reasoning is that several models (GFS/ECMWF) show a lingering vorticity in the MS valley. If this system remains as expansive as it is now, it probably will be attracted to this weakness and travel north. The same scenario would also occur if the system happens to strengthen into a tropical storm after it emerges into the Gulf.

  • Andrew says:

    I know all eyes are on 92 but Erin seems to me to be the greater potenential threat. The typical weakness in the Azores/Bermuda high is absent and the models keep Erin weak enough so she may not find one if it forms. It is very unusual for the Cape Verde islands to get T.S. Warnings. It is also rare that storms forming so early do not turn north. And stay out to sea. I had a front row seat for Andrew. I pray Erin recurves.

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