Thanks for posting, Levi. Very concerning developments for Florida, the Carolinas, and possibly farther north as well.
I’m seeing a center of vorticity slightly north of the Yucatan that barely showed itself then masked itself with its own convection. If that’s true, them we might see a stronger tropical system than previously thought. Gfs and euro seem to have agreed in theory but not this far south in gom?
You’re likely seeing the mid-level center there. The surface center is to the north of that, but you can’t see it with the naked eye anymore.
Thank you, Levi, for your post. I am so glad that I found your site a few days ago. Your explanations are most helpful. This storm has not performed quite the way I expected it to when it first came off as a wave. Thus, your input makes a lot of sense to me! Also, thank you for keeping your voice as matter-of-fact and soothing as you do. Living in Northern Florida can provide ‘enough’ panic at a time such as this all on its own; no need for shrillness! Thank you. From the amount of rain you seem to suggest for us to expect, I bet I will have a lap pool in Fernandina Beach side yard. Thanks. I appreciate your hard work.
Levi, great post. Good point on the storm surge. I think people living between north of Tampa to Apalachicola can remember the Superstorm of 1993 and the non-tropical low storm surge it caused. We could have a similar type of circulation, perhaps tighter, but with similar effects as that 1993 storm.
Thank you Levi very much,
Levi, any thoughts of the Euro’s forecast at day 6+ and a potential landfall at Cape Cod? The GFS also hints with a NW move at day 5 but not quite a landfall.
I’ve been watching your videos on YouTube and here for a few months now. Still have no clue what you’re saying about 80% of the time but keep it up. This website has become a daily ritual for me.
Just joined. Great site. Start my nightly workout on a bike watching Levi’s video. Way better than staring at a bike’s cheap screen for 10 minutes.
TD9 has been something else. Lots of attention for over a week now and it’s still not a TS (though soon will be), and still getting a ton of attention. It’s remarkable. And lo and behold Florida may have its first hurricane make landfall since Wilma in 2005.
It’s interesting that the Euro had this storm impacting the Big Bend in its model from last Thursday or so. GFS was nowhere near this. Then the Euro model gave up and dissipated it. And now it’s back. Looking forward to waking up and checking the NHC site to see if it’s still improving and finally a TS.
Excellent discussion in a clear manner that distills a wealth of data sets into an easily understandable dialogue. Have you thought of including ocean heat content (OHC) for the Gulf since this may play a factor in TC intensity?
Great stuff — thanks.
Dog gone it! I’m now in the zone….. time to get serious about watching this system!
When people are talking about a tropical system, I will repeat a small fraction of what Levi discussed the previous evening and people think I am extremely knowledgable. Does anyone else do this?
I do this. I do this a lot haha.
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