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September 2016

97L Expected to Develop – Long-Term Future in the Caribbean Highly Uncertain

   Posted by Levi at 10:01pm on September 26, 2016




  • Humberto González says:

    According to this satélite Image the meteorological system is changing from a tropical wave to a more circular shape . It is developing a hipotéticas centre

  • Rick Billings says:

    Thanks for the post, Levi.

  • Hoff511 says:

    Thanks Levi! Great video as always, but I have a question. Being that the center will stay off shore, isn’t it possible that the mountainous land interaction could possibly stregnthen and not weaken the storm by helping it consolidate?

    • Levi says:

      It is true that sometimes proximity to a coastline can increase convergence and aid the spin-up of a circulation, but in this case, the mountains do not favor that. Instead, downsloping flow off the mountains can cause dry entrainment into the storm if it gets too close, which is a detriment.

  • Wayne says:

    Great video as usual, Levi. Incidentally, you’re pronouncing the second syllable in “Tobago” incorrectly. It should be pronounced as it is in the word “bay”. I’m from Barbados, so I know how the names of the islands in this part of the world should be pronounced! 🙂

    • eaudree96 says:

      Who cares….its the professional expication that counts…

    • Jdcomix says:

      No one cares about pronunciations lol

      • Wayne says:

        Nowadays, it seems to be considered a sin to correct people. I guess it’s not PC or something. As soon as anyone points out something, all hell breaks loose. lol

        As I’d already stated, it was great video. I just thought he would appreciate knowing the correct way to pronounce the word. That’s all.

    • Levi says:

      My bad – it’s difficult sometimes to keep all the pronunciations straight.

  • Jon says:

    Thanks Levi…..always love your analysis.

  • Pete Dubler says:

    Levi, Thank you for your great work. I find your commentary to be by far the best of any I have ever heard. You will be one talent to recent with as a professional meteorologist.

  • eaudree96 says:

    Thanks..very clear….I am in Samana DR…so we wait for thursday…?

  • Carol Mahler says:

    As always, your analysis is excellent and very informative.
    Appreciate the way you always do some helpful teaching about these tropical systems. Your explanations are thorough but never too complex for laypeople to understand.’I know you will keep us up to date. I am praying this storm does NOT go into the Gulf, as I have several friends in that area. Out to sea would be the best….love those “fish” storms!

    • Rainer says:

      Us up in new england have in exxtreme drought. we need it badly. the new 18z GFS run is turning back towards new england. Models converging a bit.Including the ECMWF which shows the storm in the Bahamas and a high exiting New England. Could be a good storm for New England. 1 week out though… Any thoughts LEVI???

      • Anonymous says:

        You think it’s possible to comment on a Hurricane’s path with this degree of specificity a week ahead of time just because a long-range model on one run would appear to send it towards NE? I think with all respect you probably need to wait at least another 4-5 days see if there is any run to run consistency and any consistency with other models.

        • Rainer says:

          No,I mean like the GFS has been trending towards the European Model and Canadian a bit more….I mean it like that I did not state it would hit us up in NE but instead mean’t to state it that it could and the only two respected possible paths are towards mexico or up the east coast. It’s trending more towards the East Coast solution. That is it.

        • Rainer says:

          AGAIN. I agree with you. I didn’t mean to sound cocky….

      • FishOutofWater aka George says:

        This system is is trouble, not good. The heat content of the water in the Caribbean and Bahamas is off the charts. All the models show an intense storm developing in the Caribbean which crosses over islands. This system is a potential killer before it escapes the Caribbean. Then it could intensify further north of the islands.

        I eagerly await tropical storms in the open Atlantic that bring surf to North Carolina. I dread storms that develop in the Caribbean over steaming hot water. There are no good outcomes.

        This is the worst set up for trouble that I have seen since Sandy.

  • Larry says:

    Great commentary, Levi!

  • Jennifer says:

    Thank you, Levi! You always have the best explanations. I’ve learned a tremendous amount from you in the last few years.

  • B. Nelson says:

    Thank you again for your detailed presentation. I am still in Michigan, not at home on Providenciales, so I’m watching this closely.

  • Paul Robison says:

    Hey, Levi: Latest ECMWF run supports the GFS idea of Invest 97L going north into Cuba!

  • n toussaint says:

    Thank you! Your blog is my favorite source of weather information and you explain it so that I can understand. Thanks

  • Anonymous says:

    Great video and analysis !! Curacao has general elections on Friday. I wonder if it can still take place ?

  • Nancy Rodenbusch says:

    Your posts are always fascinating, Levi. Thank you.

  • Anonymous says:

    We have a vacation planned on 10/2 to Turks and Caicos — is this going to severely affect that area?

    • Levi says:

      It’s possible, but still 5-6 days away if that were to occur, and thus there’s no way to be certain at this point. Keep an eye on the forecast as your trip nears.

      • Anonymous says:

        Thank you!!! We are monitoring closely. Fingers crossed this does not go north and takes a path into the gulf or doesn’t develop (although that seems unlikely). Appreciate your response!

  • Iceman says:

    Thanks again for your excellent analysis of the situation Levi. I caught some great surf from Colin and Hermine in the Gulf by way of your “where it’s headed” heads up. Looking forward to the same (Gulf or Atlantic) surf success from Matthew. Other side note vote wise…as articulate and explanatory as you are, you should have been up on podium tonight, not them. You would have had my vote. Thanks again.

  • MosesMS says:

    Great video Levi. Thanks for the information and all you do!

  • Anonymous says:

    What chance does the gulf coast have of being affected by this storm?

    • Levi says:

      A track into the gulf is on the table, but if it does happen it’s more than a week away still, which means there’s no way to know yet if it will happen.

  • JRojas says:

    Useful information for maritime activities. Thank you Levi

  • Yolanda says:

    At this point, whats the worst scenario can we expect here in Puerto Rico as your opinion?

  • Dr. Rivera says:

    I see it moving in a northward direction that should take it about 100 miles north of SJ, Puerto Rico.

    • Levi says:

      Fortunately that’s not going to happen. Looks can be deceiving when discerning the direction these waves are moving.

  • Laurie says:

    We are going to can in Saturday. Should we cancel?

  • Laurie says:


  • L. Clark says:

    It is 8.30 p.m 9 27 16. When will the next update occur ?

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