According to this satélite Image the meteorological system is changing from a tropical wave to a more circular shape . It is developing a hipotéticas centre
Thanks for the post, Levi.
Thanks Levi! Great video as always, but I have a question. Being that the center will stay off shore, isn’t it possible that the mountainous land interaction could possibly stregnthen and not weaken the storm by helping it consolidate?
It is true that sometimes proximity to a coastline can increase convergence and aid the spin-up of a circulation, but in this case, the mountains do not favor that. Instead, downsloping flow off the mountains can cause dry entrainment into the storm if it gets too close, which is a detriment.
Great video as usual, Levi. Incidentally, you’re pronouncing the second syllable in “Tobago” incorrectly. It should be pronounced as it is in the word “bay”. I’m from Barbados, so I know how the names of the islands in this part of the world should be pronounced! 🙂
Who cares….its the professional expication that counts…
No one cares about pronunciations lol
Nowadays, it seems to be considered a sin to correct people. I guess it’s not PC or something. As soon as anyone points out something, all hell breaks loose. lol
As I’d already stated, it was great video. I just thought he would appreciate knowing the correct way to pronounce the word. That’s all.
Local knowledge is good. Thanks.
My bad – it’s difficult sometimes to keep all the pronunciations straight.
Thanks Levi…..always love your analysis.
Levi, Thank you for your great work. I find your commentary to be by far the best of any I have ever heard. You will be one talent to recent with as a professional meteorologist.
Darn spell check…one talent to recken with…
Thanks..very clear….I am in Samana DR…so we wait for thursday…?
As always, your analysis is excellent and very informative.
Appreciate the way you always do some helpful teaching about these tropical systems. Your explanations are thorough but never too complex for laypeople to understand.’I know you will keep us up to date. I am praying this storm does NOT go into the Gulf, as I have several friends in that area. Out to sea would be the best….love those “fish” storms!
Us up in new england have in exxtreme drought. we need it badly. the new 18z GFS run is turning back towards new england. Models converging a bit.Including the ECMWF which shows the storm in the Bahamas and a high exiting New England. Could be a good storm for New England. 1 week out though… Any thoughts LEVI???
You think it’s possible to comment on a Hurricane’s path with this degree of specificity a week ahead of time just because a long-range model on one run would appear to send it towards NE? I think with all respect you probably need to wait at least another 4-5 days see if there is any run to run consistency and any consistency with other models.
No,I mean like the GFS has been trending towards the European Model and Canadian a bit more….I mean it like that I did not state it would hit us up in NE but instead mean’t to state it that it could and the only two respected possible paths are towards mexico or up the east coast. It’s trending more towards the East Coast solution. That is it.
AGAIN. I agree with you. I didn’t mean to sound cocky….
This system is is trouble, not good. The heat content of the water in the Caribbean and Bahamas is off the charts. All the models show an intense storm developing in the Caribbean which crosses over islands. This system is a potential killer before it escapes the Caribbean. Then it could intensify further north of the islands.
I eagerly await tropical storms in the open Atlantic that bring surf to North Carolina. I dread storms that develop in the Caribbean over steaming hot water. There are no good outcomes.
This is the worst set up for trouble that I have seen since Sandy.
Great commentary, Levi!
Thank you, Levi! You always have the best explanations. I’ve learned a tremendous amount from you in the last few years.
Thank you again for your detailed presentation. I am still in Michigan, not at home on Providenciales, so I’m watching this closely.
Hey, Levi: Latest ECMWF run supports the GFS idea of Invest 97L going north into Cuba!
Thank you! Your blog is my favorite source of weather information and you explain it so that I can understand. Thanks
Great video and analysis !! Curacao has general elections on Friday. I wonder if it can still take place ?
Your posts are always fascinating, Levi. Thank you.
We have a vacation planned on 10/2 to Turks and Caicos — is this going to severely affect that area?
It’s possible, but still 5-6 days away if that were to occur, and thus there’s no way to be certain at this point. Keep an eye on the forecast as your trip nears.
Thank you!!! We are monitoring closely. Fingers crossed this does not go north and takes a path into the gulf or doesn’t develop (although that seems unlikely). Appreciate your response!
Thanks again for your excellent analysis of the situation Levi. I caught some great surf from Colin and Hermine in the Gulf by way of your “where it’s headed” heads up. Looking forward to the same (Gulf or Atlantic) surf success from Matthew. Other side note vote wise…as articulate and explanatory as you are, you should have been up on podium tonight, not them. You would have had my vote. Thanks again.
Great video Levi. Thanks for the information and all you do!
What chance does the gulf coast have of being affected by this storm?
A track into the gulf is on the table, but if it does happen it’s more than a week away still, which means there’s no way to know yet if it will happen.
Useful information for maritime activities. Thank you Levi
At this point, whats the worst scenario can we expect here in Puerto Rico as your opinion?
Right now it seems likely that 97L will track well to the south and west of Puerto Rico.
I see it moving in a northward direction that should take it about 100 miles north of SJ, Puerto Rico.
Fortunately that’s not going to happen. Looks can be deceiving when discerning the direction these waves are moving.
We are going to can in Saturday. Should we cancel?
It is 8.30 p.m 9 27 16. When will the next update occur ?
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