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September 2016

[Friday Evening] – Matthew a Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane – Hurricane Watch for Jamaica

   Posted by Levi at 10:29pm on September 30, 2016

Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center




  • Rezaur Rahman says:

    May Allah save us from all calamities!!!!!!!!!!!!Amen

    • Dean says:

      May people use common sense and GTFO of the way of what may kill them. Allah, God or any other Deity be considered.

    • Anonymous says:

      You mean God

      • Dean says:

        God, Allah, Spaghetti Monster, or Sky Fairy, tis a “Free Country” believe in whatever deity you wish or do not believe in any it is your rights and choice. Just use some common sense and GTFO the way of things that could kill you then pray later.

        • Jeff Zemlik says:

          Any chance you two can stick to the weather and not turn this blog in w/u or facebook? Thanks.

        • Dean is a joke says:

          If you have nothing good to say Dean then don’t say it at all. You’re a lost soul riddling other people.

  • Jason says:

    Levi, very informative analysis as always. I look forward to your daily videos to get a true ‘look’ at what is going on. I was hoping you would wait till the GFS 18z came out to talk about in this video and the apparent westward trending in future track. Like you mentioned the GFS seems to be trending to a slower north turn and now appears as of a result predicting the ridge to build in above/to the east hinting more of an east coast (even Florida)threat. Care to comment? Thanks again!

    Jason C.

    • Levi says:

      It’s a trend, but other models have trended the other direction today, like the ECMWF ensemble. That doesn’t change anything I said in the video. There’s still lots of uncertainty.

  • andre says:

    Thanks again…

  • Navysurfer says:

    Thanks Levi Especially for the warnings and your insight as to,, we just don’t know. I live on West coast Florida, Daughter in Collage in Miami, so this is very important for us.

    Curious as why no models predicted the amazing increase in strength, I do understand its nature and we do the best we can.

    As a sailor I understand the difference the damage from say 110 kts, to 150 kts, is, its unreal, the velocity change and destructive ability of wind and storm surge.

    God bless the people in the path of this storm, and again thank you for your hard work and insight.

    Does anyone have current links to the ham radio people in the storms path?I doubt power will be available in many of the areas affected

    No need to respond,



  • Anonymous says:

    Thanks Levi. Brilliant analysis as always. Hoping for the best for all affected.

  • Jim Yerkes says:

    Just found this site, love it. Was on weatherwest a california weather blog and someone mentioned this site. so happy to have found it. Great to have a weather site devoted to tropical weather.

    I grw up in the days of Wally Kinnan the Weatherman why back when in Philly, now live in Northern California

  • Bellwater99 says:

    Very informative as always. How has this intensifyed so rapidly?

  • Justin Smith says:

    Just found this site… I absolutely love the models page. I jump back and forth with the Experimental site from FSU..
    Wonder if the higher than average SST’s played a role in Matthew being able to fight off the observed 15-20kts of vertical shear?
    Levi, awesome site! You definitely have a new regular!

    • Levi says:

      Thanks Justin! Warm SSTs are definitely helping, but it likely isn’t the whole story. Often these rapid intensification events are mysteries that are very difficult to solve. It may take research a few years from now to find the answer.

      • Deirdre says:

        I’m afraid the cat is out of the bag around here locally. I went hunting for model access awhile back, found you and have been lurking here ever since, dropped your site name a few times and now I’m seeing local folks quote and point more on social media and all (not taking all the credit–nor the blame!–with your stuff it was undoubtably inevitable) Just figure that you’re going to need to check your servers’ ability to handle the increased traffic that is bound to come your way. Just wanted to comment so you know that you have more lurking fans than you even know–good job Levi, and thank you for fulfilling a wanna be weather geeks fantasies 😉
        I’m hoping that the model-suggested stall in the Bahamas doesn’t raise the chances for a Mid-Atlantic/Hatteras swipe–I get that everything is crazy uncertain for up here. But big fears unfolding for our sport-fishing family and friends down there-all for sure in the path of this monster for right now–thanks for giving us tools to call our friends in the path and tell them to carry their boats outta there right now! Hoping for smart planning for all our friends in the path.
        Thank you.
        A fan from Eastern NC–we need you here on the Crystal Coast!

      • Justin Smith says:

        I’ve been researching meso-vortices in tropical cyclones and I bet they are tied to the dreaded (pinhole) eye. It seems as though 1 of the meso’s in the eyeball just explode and takeoff..similar to intense tornadoes…

  • Matthew says:

    Why is it a cat 4?

    • Stephanie says:

      I stumbled upon your site last month and I absolutely love the information you give us and how you explain everything.
      What are the chances of us in Turks and Caicos experiencing any tropical storm effects? I know it’s supposed to be to the west of us, but given the size and strength, I’m wondering if we’ll feel anything here.

      • Levi says:

        If the current forecast track is correct, the Turks and Caicos would only see the outskirts of the storm, but it wouldn’t take much of a shift east to move the area of potential tropical storm conditions over those islands, so stay watchful.

      • Anonymous says:

        My husband and I just canceled our trip to Turks and Caicos 🙁 we were supposed to leave Sunday for our anniversary but decided to play it safe as right now they are calling for winds 35 MPH (not the best beach weather!). I was concerned if the track of this storm moved East and Turks got more of the brunt. We went through Hurricane Sandy in Hoboken, NJ and I will pass on expericing another storm of that magnitude if I can. Off to Cali we go on Sunday! Stay safe down there!

    • Rainer says:

      because it is intensifying under fairly conducive conditions

  • FishOutofWater aka George says:

    The recon SFMR plot shows 145kt surface winds at 00Z 1Oct. That’s 165mph sustained winds – Category 5. Sometimes the NHC reports slightly different numbers than what we see on the plots so it’s not officially this strength until they make their public report on the data which they carefully review.

    Note that the higher intensity of the storm may affect the track because the average steering level of the storm goes up with intensity. This is not good news for Jamaica because just a slight shift west would send this beast into Kingston. This CIMSS map of steering levels shows that that might be what’s happening, but we’ll know better with later model runs that incorporate the new data from the recon flights.

    Thanks, Levi.

  • stan chaz says:

    Every situation is different , but the predicted path in the medium term looks alot like hurricane Hazel in the fifties, around the same time of the year. I remember as a child waathing debris flying thru the streets of NYC with lots of rain. and wind as it passed to our west eventually. I wonder if the potential steering forces might be similar in both cases, or shed light on how Matthew might move.

    • stan chaz says:

      By the way- the hurricane seems to be composed of two large blobs on the radar of almiost equal size (one with an eye to the right) that are merging. Almost looks kike two storms. Could there be any Fujiwhara effect pushing the eye further south?

  • SteveInBoston says:

    I still see this going into New England on several models, but don’t understand this well enough to see the predicted intensity.

  • Bellwater99 says:

    How much can the recon plane withstand? At what point do they have to retreat?

    • treetopflyer says:

      Well, if a C130 cruises at 375mph…then it can withstand a whole lot more

    • FishOutofWater aka George says:

      The recon plane flies up higher in an intense hurricane like this one.
      It’s flying at 700mb – about 10,000 feet but lower in the eye.

  • Beach Bum says:

    What an amazing force of nature this past day, it’s been fun watching this come together thanks to great sites like this. Thanks Levi.

    What still confuses me is just how tight the GFS models have it tracked north and over Cuba / DR. Models have been consistently wrong with intensity thru now, why wouldn’t they have a wider variance in their models three days out?

    Time will tell. A landfall to the US would be catastrophic, unlike anything we’ve seen since Sandy and possibly years earlier. Be safe those in Jamaica and north.

  • Floodguy says:

    Boy the 18z GFS is crazy close to FL by day-7. Looks like it is picking up on ur suggestion, building the high farther westward with a weakening trough exiting the NE. This is going to be a nail biter for many n a devastating catastrophe in the making for the big islands n the Bahamas. Would be very helpful if u can introduce some surge forecasts n precip projections as it gets closer. Excellent service u r offering young man! U r contributing a tremendous amount of awareness n understanding to the public.

  • Jim Kossin says:

    Hi Levi. Very informative briefing. Thank you for posting it. Regarding the potential for an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) in Matthew, I want to point out that these events are not entirely unpredictable. The SHIPS guidance has, for some years now, provided a probability of ERC onset. The model is called the pERC model and it does show skill. I’ve pasted the latest output (10/01/16 00 UTC) below. Note that the probability is close to 100% (98%) that an ERC will begin in the next 24-36h. It is about 50% that an ERC will begin in the next 12h. If it does, then the intensity change is given by the second block of output below, based on a model called E-SHIPS. Both models are described in Weather and Forecasting articles (2009 and 2016, respectively). Feel free to contact me offline if you want to know any more about these. Cheers, Jim Kossin

    TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
    CLIMO(%) 48 43( 70) 28( 79) 23( 84) 24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 136 128 117 108 101 102 107 104 67 71 69 72
    18HR AGO 135 134 126 115 106 99 100 105 102 65 69 67 70
    12HR AGO 135 132 131 120 111 104 105 110 107 70 74 72 75
    6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 116 109 110 115 112 75 79 77 80
    NOW 135 126 120 117 116 109 110 115 112 75 79 77 80
    IN 6HR 135 136 127 121 118 115 116 121 118 81 85 83 86
    IN 12HR 135 136 128 119 113 109 110 115 112 75 79 77 80

    • Levi says:

      Thank you very much for that information Dr. Kossin. I will pay close attention to this product while we have Matthew. It’s been 9 years since we’ve had a TC this intense in the Atlantic for which these processes have been very important!

  • Jennifer Spinks says:

    Thank you Levi for your insight. I was wondering if you could tell me what the blob to the northeast of the storm is? Is it going to merge with the storm, is it just a part of the storm, does it affect the storm’s intensity?

  • Hank Dolce says:

    Matthew is a C5!

  • Jay says:

    I see this as a land swiping category 5 hurricane somewhere soon.

  • Anonymous says:

    Talks weakening storm, turns cat 5 ???

  • Jay says:

    Hurricanes push a massive tidal wave of water ahead of it, and pull a tidal wave of water behind it. A hurricane’s major impact is flooding, the flooding is currently equal to a category 5 hurricane weather or not the winds diminish, and the category is less.

    The category actually means nothing when flooding is concerned. Biloxi, Mississippi had 28 feet of standing water, plus waves.

  • andre says:

    Why is the euro model tracks more est?

  • Anonymous says:

    Levi….great site….was wondering where Oct 3 installment is??

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