Latest Advisory from the National Hurricane Center
Thank you as always Levi for the updates and education of the storms.
Harvey started to track North for a bit then started taking a NW heading. What caused this, and is it possible Harvey could still track more west before landfall?
Harvey did jump a bit to the north last night, but has resumed its overall NW motion. Hurricanes also wobble from time to time along their track. These wobbles can become more important right before landfall, and that’s one reason why it’s hard to know the precise landfall location.
It might be a little early for this, what is your inclination on the mechanism that will eventually push Harvey out of Texas/the Gulf if it does not head inland and dissipate?
Northerly flow on the eastern side of the developing ridge over the SW United States and westerly flow south of a trough over the Midwest would be what pushes Harvey back southeastward or eastward.
Levy… your resume should be seriously considered in Noaa or NHC… thanks for the analysis
Levi, since Harvey is intensifying sooner than anticipated is it possible for this storm two move more North impacting more of the Texas Louisiana border than originally thought?
The track has shifted slightly north of Corpus Christi today, but the strength of the storm likely won’t cause wild track changes in this case. However, if Harvey drifts northeastward after landfall, Louisiana could see more direct impacts in the longer range anyway.
Thoughts on the models shifting northward again?
Small shifts in the track can always occur even in the day before landfall. Pinpointing the exact landfall spot is never easy, sometimes even just a few hours beforehand.
Levi, your analysis is very detailed and just the way I like it. Great job! 2 Questions: First, I’m hearing possibility of up to 50 in. of rain over the course of the next 5 days for some of the affected area. Would you lean in that direction, as well? Secondly, if Harvey tracks back out over water say Tuesday of next week, what are its chances to ramp back up to Cat 2 or 3 before next landfall? Thanks for your time.
Josh, thats kind of gloom and doom for sure! 50 inches would be biblical in impact to southeast texas – I have heard 15-20 max.
Yeah, 50 in. is a steep number. I’m guessing 20 inches in the most affected area could be a low estimate as well. 30-35 in. The stall out factor is going to dump so much. I hope everyone is getting the heck out of there.
What impacts will ga feel if it goes extra tropical over miss or alabama?
If it gets over there, there would be rain, but that’s in the very long-range right now and highly uncertain.
Thanks for the quick reply
Levi, both Rita and Ike appeared to tail right as they approached land. Would those be independent events, or is there something about he Texas coast that might indicate a similar northward shift?
Sometimes the frictional effect of the storm being near the coast can cause wobbles before landfall. We have seen it with Texas storms before. They are virtually impossible to predict, though.
Thanks Levi….. Keep thinking of is Crystal Beach. I hope folks are paying attention..
Well, looks like I was wrong on this one…..even though some of the “experts” were also wrong! If this thing becomes a cat 3 then I will make an official apology and would probably evacuate myself….which I’m not going to do with a 1 or 2 category Hurricane! Flooding is going to be horrific since this thing is barely moving! Move at least 15-20 miles inland and look for a 2nd story hotel to hole up in! Your not going to have internet or cable t.v. either….probably for a week! Bring adult beverages.
Any chance this storm will be like Ike and travel up into the midwest? Some of the computer models are showing it traveling north. I live in Ohio, and I know we didnt get hit like Texas did, but Ike created a situation that Ohio trees arent used to. By the time it was done I had three trees on my house and no power for two weeks. I know it’s early, but wanted to see if anyone had any thoughts on this.
I’ll answer that for you….NO you are not going to get hit by any part of this storm as it will head east and somewhat north but not straight up to your neck of the woods! By the way, what kind of Power Company do you pay that would keep you without power for 2 weeks because of a thunderstorm?
It is not at all clear where Harvey might go after the next few days. All we can say is that it will move generally north and east at some point. Pretending certainty beyond that right now is misleading.
Not trying to upstage you or steal your thunder…..but how often do Gulf Hurricanes ACTUALLY affect the State of Ohio? You’ve got the data at your finger tips! Let us know! Fact is these storms are unpredictable to a large degree….and your opinion and viewpoint is just as good as mine….or as bad as mine? You’ve got a great site…and I keep coming back! Not nearly as sensational as the Weather Channel guys and gals!
Not often at all, but the last one to nail Texas nailed us too. The computer models from 2008 for ike look similar to some of these for Harvey. It was a simple question Robert. Sorry if it got you all hot and bothered. I saw our local meteorologists up here are actually talking about the possibilities tonight, which they didn’t do the last time. I guess that is a win. Praying for Texas and hoping it doesn’t travel our way again.
You do not realize how bad it was. Check out the Wikipedia page on Effects of Hurricane Ike on Inland North America. It was the most costly natural disaster to ever hit southwest Ohio. The part that made it extra crazy was it was completely unexpected. I saw multiple fist fights at our local grocery at 6 am the next morning. Almost everyone in my county lost water, 90% lost power. A big part of our utility workers went south to help Texans so we had fewer workers here to help us. It’s the reason why i try to keep a weeks worth of everything in my basement.
What’s your gut feel on San Antonio. Do you think this storm will go inland more than some of the models show?
The track is inching upwards north of Corpus Christi, but it will still be bad for Corpus Christi, along with Pearland, Lake Jackson, Clute, Brazoria, Angleton, Houston, Galveston Island, Katy, this is a intensifying hurricane.
Levi,what strength of winds will be felt on the tx/la border if any? And are there any indications that Harvey will turn more northward covering more of extreme se tx?
Harvey will be moving very slowly near or over SE Texas for a few days, and could drift northeastward toward Louisiana eventually. How much wind it could bring if that happens it’s too early to say, as it depends on whether the storm spends most of its time over Texas or over the coastal waters, which would allow it to stay stronger. For Louisiana it’s a bit of a wait and see situation, but some potentially flooding rainfall will find its way up there regardless.
Would you be so kind as to do another video update tonight?
Please talk about conditions during and afterwards, power outages, sweltering heat, etc…
I already have relatives that are not leaving, they don’t want to have to pay for gas, food, hotel rooms, etc… I’m like you will have no electricity at bare minimum. And sometimes, a refrigerator, and freezer are so rotten afterwards you have to have them both replaced with new ones.
Evacuations are costly, expensive and trying on the physical body, and that’s why they only call them when it’s absolutely necessary! Obviously, the higher the the Category the more danger it is to stay behind and ride it out! This one looks pretty bad and will bring serious flooding and some storm surge for those living near the coast. Due to the pathetic infrastructure anybody within a 40-50 mile radius is going to lose power, some for an extended period of time! I stayed for Himacane Matthew last year…and when it went by it was only sustain winds of 65 miles an hour and we got 9 inches of rain, which down here in the low country is not that much! Biggest problem was loss of power for about a week, and we lost 300,000 trees, mostly Water Oaks! Turned our county into a “lumber yard!” Would I stay again? Yep. Was about 5 miles from the beach in a 2nd story Hotel which was made of concrete, stone, brick and wrought iron! It wasn’t going ANYWHERE! We were a 1st “responders” hotel housing SCE&G workers. Class 1 and 2…I’m staying….class 3 and 4? I’m heading inland!
This is great stuff. Any thoughts now(8:05 p.m. Thursday) as to the likelihood of serious wind/rain as far north as Austin? Thanks
It’s certainly possible that heavy rains could extend that far inland, depending on how far inland Harvey gets before stalling. There is still uncertainty in that, but right now the WPC rainfall forecast looks to have 6-10 inches in Austin over the next several days, which is no picnic.
Alot of people are concerned with if they should evacuate or not based on the strength of the storm. WATER KILLS MOST PEOPLE IN A STORM. Even a tropical storm that sits for days can cause life threatening flooding. Levi please stress this to your readers
I think everybody in town now knows that the storm surge is responsible for the most damage and fatalities during a hurricane! Up to 3 miles of the beach puts you in the extreme DANGER zone! Flooding is next in line for fatalities and damage. Fatalities when people get out and drive around in there cars and get swept away and drown. You can always protect yourself from the wind, generally speaking, by just staying in doors until it passes!
Thank you Levi!!
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