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September 2017

[Sunday Evening] – Irma Expected to Directly Impact Leeward Islands Beginning Late Tuesday

   Posted by Levi at 12:39am on September 4, 2017




  • CaptDJB says:

    Exactly as Levi said – Have your HURRICANE PLAN READY
    Check you local County EVAC Plan etc at minimum 7 days of RX, Water and food for Pets and Household Family- blankets, notification of where you’re going and an In Case of Emergency list.) Please consider your Flood Zone and proximity to rivers/lakes/ponds PROTECT Livestock.
    These are again minimums, your Local County will have a CheckList.
    Waiting and watching from West Central FL
    Been through too many to name- not young enough to appreciate Hurricane Party. FWIW Levi is in FL ALSO

  • Margaret says:


    First of all, thank you for all of the information you’re providing, FSU is lucky to have you, and go Noles.

    Second, the American model on your website is hopefully playing a cruel joke, because it looks like it’s actually projecting the wave that’s following Irma to not just become a hurricane but also potentially follow right behind Irma and hit the same track again. Living in Orlando and having one of my client’s trials set to start in Fort Lauderdale on the 11th, I’m not loving that projection at all. I also know it’s extremely far out and a lot can and probably will change in the next 10 days.

    I know you keep saying we can’t even predict where/if Irma is making landfall in the US so I’m not expecting the answer to be at different for the yet unnamed (which would be Jose if it gets named I think?) system following her, but how much certainty is there right now that it will even develop rotation and get to hurricane strength?

  • Angie says:

    I’m in Sarasota too. Surf reports show wind gusts over 100MPH Monday the 11th.

  • Tammygooch says:

    Levi, so no chance of it coming to Texas?

  • Tammygooch says:

    Levi, so no chance Texas has to work about Irma.

    • Rob says:

      Highly unlikely. There is still a chance that it gets to eastern GOM but highly unlikely it makes it west to Texas.

  • Caribe Craft says:

    Good afternoon Levi, We are located in St Thomas and are wondering how far out from the center of the eye are the hurricane winds? We are approximately 60 mi south west of Anegada. If the eye wall were to pass over Anegada what wind speed might we expect here in St Thomas on the south side of the island?

    • Levi says:

      Hurricane force winds currently extend about 35 miles from the center of Irma. You can see your probability of experiencing hurricane force winds at the NHC website:

      • Caribe Craft says:

        Thank you for the reply, please forgive my naivete but the purple color represents the hurricane force winds? If I understand correctly we are in the brown color area. So the wind should be about 50% of the maximum winds? As the storm gets closer so will the purple area how do I calculate the speed in the red zone for example?
        Thank you in advance if you can respond.

        • gene says:

          The colors represent PROBABILITY of hurricane force winds. If you’re in brown area, it means there is 60-70% probability that you will be hit by hurricane. It does not say anything about actual wind.
          Goodluck and be safe!

        • Rob says:

          No, those colors represent hurricane force wind probabilities so if you are in the brown that means the chances are between 50-60% of seeing hurricane force winds at some point.

    • Micah says:

      I hope everyone evac’s Anegada, be safe in St thomas. we are in Rincon, PR and expecting 70mph winds

  • Karen says:

    When will you do the next update?

  • Kaz says:

    AF 305 HH just passed through the eye. 941mb with winds of 135kt in NW quad. This is truly a monster forming. With the possible exceptiom of Cuba, nothing of substance in its way. Very favorable environment to strengthen. Models are all converging on Florida in 5 days. Be safe, all.

  • Gritzel says:

    Hi from comerio, puerto rico. Lot’s of folks here are just looking at the cone map and deciding not to do anything. What can I say to get family members to prepare?

  • Shannon says:

    So your modeler shows Irma bouncing off the East coast of FL and hitting somewhere around North Carolina. Thoughts?

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