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Wednesday Morning Update
The eye of Hurricane Irma recently passed directly over St. Maarten, after passing over Barbuda last night, and Irma is beginning to impact the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. It currently appears that Irma will pass just to the north of Puerto Rico as forecast, sparing them the worst, but close enough to be dangerous.
If there’s any good news this morning, it’s that the mid-level shear mentioned yesterday seems to have started impacting Irma, as the storm’s core is now asymmetric. This has resulted in a pressure rise of 9 mb in the past 6 hours according to recon data. However, winds seem to remain as strong as ever, with the plane this morning estimating surface winds of ~175 mph in the northern eyewall. Irma is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane for the foreseeable future.
Hurricane warnings now extend into the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas, as Irma is still expected to track through there on Friday, and Hurricane Watches are up in portions of Cuba. As far as the U.S. goes, model guidance indicates that a potential track into the Gulf of Mexico on the west side of Florida is becoming less likely, but still cannot be ruled out. The threat to the Florida Peninsula remains high, and a track just to the east of Florida up into the GA/SC/NC area is also very possible. A track directly over Cuba is also becoming less likely, though can’t be ruled out. If Irma does not pass over Cuba, the hurricane is unlikely to weaken dramatically on approach to Florida. Exactly how strong Irma will be near Florida is hard to say, but the storm is likely to be a very powerful and dangerous hurricane.
Given the continuing uncertainties in exactly where Irma will track near the United States, it’s important that everyone in Florida and the SE U.S. get prepared just in case the hurricane comes your way. The good news is that if you prepare properly and have a plan of action in case of a direct hit, you will be alright. Heed the instructions and advice of your local officials, and look to hurricanes.gov and your local National Weather Service office for the latest, correct information. Stay safe everyone. A new video will likely come this evening.
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Levi, what Time Zone is the basis of your online postings? I just read your update at 10:00 AM EDT Sep 6, 2017, which was tagged 1:27 PM Sep 6, 2017. Thanks! BTW, we follow your posts faithfully. This is our second hurricane season with you.
The timestamp displayed on the post is supposed to update to whatever your computer thinks the local timezone is. It may be wrong sometimes I suppose. 9:27am EDT is when this was posted.
The same thing is happening for me. I’m using chrome (mobile and desktop). Maybe something for you to debug on your site when hurricane season is past. I should be on EDT but I’m getting a different time zone shown.
For me it’s 4 hours in the future so GMT is being displayed.
Same here Bill, the time stamp on that last post is 1:27 pm Sept.6, and it’s about 12:20 here(EDT). Weird,, and I had to do a double take!
Great source of data!
My previous message just got tagged and rejected for a duplicating, previous submittal. Sorry, but that was not the case. The message went: “Levi, what Time Zone is the basis of your online postings? I just read your update at 10:00 AM EDT Sep 6, 2017, which was tagged 1:27 PM Sep 6, 2017. Thanks! BTW, we follow your posts faithfully. This is our second hurricane season with you.”
Hmm. Must have fat-fingered the POST button. My apologies.
More than likely GMT so EDT+5hrs
What happen in St Marteen anybody? Need update if you please
This twitter account has photos from the Dutch side this morning. https://twitter.com/Bondtehond
And this NYT article has a little bit of info: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/americas/hurricane-irma-update.html?_r=0
Official statement from PM of Antigua & Barbuda, which was the first to take a direct hit:
https://www.abconsulate.nyc/single-post/2017/09/06/Official-Statement-by-the-Hon-Gaston-Browne-Prime-Minister-of-Antigua-and-Barbuda-after-hurricane-Irma
Still looking for more. No word yet from friends on the island or regular posters in the area—power will probably be out for some time yet. Will update as info comes in.
Thank you for your informative reporting. As a local to the the SC coast we have your based our preparations on the data you’ve gathered. Prayers to all in Irma’s path.
Thanks for your updates! How long do you anticipate Irma will take to hover/pass over the USVI and BVI?
Eagerly waiting for the 11:00am update. From ST. Thomas- Northside
They now have mandatory evacuation for tourists today here in the Florida keys, and mandatory evacuation tonight for residents. They can’t make a person leave his home. The fire dept. will stop by tomorrow to make sure people that stay are prepared. I live in a large overbuilt cement house that is much safer than driving north. This thing is predicted to move up the entire state of Florida, so there’s nowhere to go. The latest spaghetti predictions (guesses) are showing this storm may shift slightly offshore and hit the keys with 26% force, which will still be bad since this thing is so huge. regards, fishcamp
Write your SS # somewhere on your body, i hope you survive
CHAOS even in FLOR-BAMA not to mention all up and around the ST
Friends in Islamorada (Residents) have been delayed due to a Medical Emergency
NOW 2 PM EURO shifted WEST – we don’t like that
I’m N of Tampa which was looking pretty good – again people are panicing
Fuel and Drinking Water are “supposedly” being replenished.
What’s the current % for Islamorada
BE SAFE FISHCAMP
BTW Levi your friend ragebot turned me on to your excellent website. Yours is one of the best. I also like the Cuban weather site we are able to get down here, sometimes.
fishcamp: lived in Marathon during Georges . . . hang on. The EM department there was terrific. Best of luck. And, yes, I would take a cement house over the highway north any day!
thank you, Levi. Staying hoping it will move more to the east and miss Fernandina Beach area. You are doing a great job, thanks!
Doug, a friend of a friend managed to get this post out to FB this morning, from St. Marten:
“Windows blown in and ceiling on the beach side of condo has fallen in. Roof is gone from beach side of building too.
The back side if the storm should have past now but winds will remain high for another few hrs. In the bathroom (no windows) on the West side of the condo.
Models seem to pick up a ga landfall and curve it into north ga
Some models, but not all. At this point it is still uncertain even what state Irma will make landfall in, but it’s important to note that even if Irma moves over Florida, Georgia could still be affected as the storm moves north.
Same here Bill, the time stamp on that last post is 1:27 pm Sept.6, and it’s about 12:20 here(EDT). Weird,, and I had to do a double take!
Greetings Levi,
I salute your skill as a communicator. Don’t change a thing – you are doing great things.
My question is about the emerging sequence or series of events out around 10-12N, 35-40W; as now being highlighted by Invest 94L, and TS Jose etc.
Are we seeing a “birthing area” here about, that may continue “feeding” storm systems into the Carib/E USA?
And, any info as to ham radio reports out of the present track area – since some islands are not in “normal communications” after passage? (I am KD7DCR) The X9 sun flare is not helping with such contacts and could be followed by another M or X class event.
God Bless,
Mel F. in Montana
“I salute your skill as a communicator. Don’t change a thing – you are doing great things.”
Indeed. Thanks, Levi; great work in print and video.
I concur. I learn something about the science and math involved in weather every time I read or listen. Thank you.
Hi,
Quick(ish) question: does a strong TC tend to reinforce a ridge on it’s poleward side? My thinking was (from long ago) that such was the case. However, if I am reading Sunnybrook’s ensemble sensitivity work correctly, it has been arguing a stronger (and as a complication more northerly) Irma will have a greater likelyhood of tracking toward the right side of the guidance envelope. (http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html)
I have not yet in the time I have been able to give to quick research on the question found a useful answer. Any thoughts?
Jacob
It probably depends on the environment around the storm. The heat released in the hurricane certainly modifies the environment around it, but how that influences its track would depend on many things specific to the particular situation.
Thank you very much for the information.
Any news from St. Barts?
Hello Levi, When will you post about the upper and mid level highs , how they are shifting to produce he trough that will effect Irma’s path?
THANK YOU! We’re sharing your website with all my social media contacts. Amazing video presentation last night, your commentary is intelligent, thoughtful and lively. you are our new favorite!
Levi, any advice for a Savannah, GA resident?
Certainly check with your local met offices and government warnings. They have the experience, resources, and forcasting skill to advise most appropriately.
If it’s me personally, and I live anywhere on the eastern seaboard from Miami north to the outer banks, including Savannah, charleston, and myrtle beach, im preparing my property for wind and flood damage, gathering up valuables and family, and retreating to higher ground. And I’m doing it now, not waiting for the weekend and (possible) landfall in Florida.
I see a very similar scenario with Matthew happening…just brushing the FL east coast.
It seems that the turn is occurring earlier than previously forecasted, which makes a Matthew scenario more possible and a N/S Carolina landfall more probable
Doug
I saw brief video footage of st Martin on CNBC…it was a downtown area but I don’t know where…looked very bad. Water was up to car roofs and there was debris everywhere. They also had a still aerial photo of the eye of Irma completely encircling both islands. Sending them all prayers.
My daughter is at school in Charleston and it seems more and more likely to me that they will have major impacts there based on the model trends.
Thanks for the information
Thanks Levi!
Mid Atlantic landfall off the table?
Definitely appreciate the insight and info sharing the site with all my co-workers
Levi, you do a spectacular job of getting your point across in a way that lay people can understand. Way better and more informative than those TV Talking Heads. Thanks so much for what you do. I’m so glad I bumped into this site. Best to you.
Levi, where do you get the soundings of the hurricane that showed the winds a different heights?
is it moveing to north careline when it was lasted updated
As a contractor in Charleston, SC we need good info re: boarding up clients’ homes. Your site is all we use now. IMO, you can drop your “…before making decisions, consult the National Hurricane Center…” remark, as you are the BEST and ONLY source needed!
It’s been so long since Florida has had a hurricane, I hope this don’t turn into a spectator event, and people stay home to see what happens. During Katrina, I didn’t expect what was to happen.
We had one in early October last year – Matthew. Though it was off the coast, it still had some devastating effects on the shore line, and including inland damage due to the storms. Some of us were out of power for many days. I’d say we had a hurricane.
For those of us on Hilton Head Island, it was pretty horrific, even as a Cat 1. I shudder to think of the damage a Cat 4 Irma will do if she comes in between SAV and HHI. We’re bugging out of town on Sunday.
Question (sorry if this has already been asked, but I’ve not seen anything). Will Jose “feed” off of Irma? I wonder what the interaction is with two storms so close together.
thank you
I’m no meteorologist, and Levi, correct me if I’m wrong, but interaction with Irma would likely weaken Jose. Picture 2 wheels rotating in the same direction. In between they are spinning in opposition to one another. Where Irma is causing winds from the south, Jose is trying to blow out of the north, if we assume they are on the same latitude. Irma, being so much stronger, would create a shear environment and overpower Jose’s rotation. However, I don’t know if they are close enough together for that to happen.
Also, Irma is sucking up a tremendous amount of energy, leaving less energy in its wake to power Jose. But again, the distance between the two could be enough for sea surface temperatures to rebound and heat (energy) to build back up. At any rate, however, Irma is not likely to “feed” Jose, but rather have the opposite effect.
Levi is there any chance the upper low will not pick up the storm and turn it north at the anticipated time allowing the storm to migrate west into the Gulf of Mexico? I live in New Orleans and Katrina was supposed to go to Florida as well.
A track into the Gulf of Mexico is still possible, but it is currently highly unlikely that Irma gets anywhere west of the Florida panhandle.
Levi,
Are you in the storm’s path? Just wondering if you’re going to evacuate and go dark…??
Tybee Island, GA
Hello Levi –
Thanks for your continued diligence and posting. If it is at all possible during one of your next video/text updates, could you make a quick comparison of Matthew vs. Irma? We’re in the Jacksonville area and this feels really similar in a lot of ways except the tracking east/west windows are reversed. Thanks in advance for any guidance on this…
This is my favorite website now for friends and family! I think this blog will help save lives as Levi discusses the troughs and fluid dynamics to predict weather patterns!
Why does the storm turn west once it hits land in SC/NC? Why would it not turn right? Thank you
*I live in VA Beach, VA
That is a great question! There seems to be certain pattern that is climatological and also climate change aspects interacting with troughs. Irma seems to be influenced by a climate pattern for the period a couple weeks ago. It is dynamic, but the history of upper air patterns appears to send now the 2nd major hurricane toward the gulf/ atlantic states. The old core of Harvey went near Nashville earlier.
In general, the weakening of a trough may allow an westerly component at this stage of the season! Abundant warm air on the global scale. Fires in the west! Swaths of heat generated precipitaton over warm waters!
Levi it is strange that with minimal wind shear, lack of interaction with land in it’s forecast path and higher then normal sea temps including some of the warmest waters in the atlantic at the moment just below the Florida Keys that NHC think it will weaken, if you look at sea temperatures at the moment it clearly shows perfect sea temperatures in it’s future path for it to remain a severe Category 5 yet NHC are saying winds will go down 30-40mph in their discussion board by the time it reaches Florida – can you shed some light on this?
Levi I’m sure there is not one answer for this but approx. how long does an ERC take to complete? 6-12hrs, 12-24hrs for example.
And of course I echo everyone else. You do a phenomenal job with your tropical analysis. Ive been following and learning from you for years. So thank you.
Professor Levi,
Is there any data regarding islands or countries with most hurricane warnings that never make landfall? Like false positives…? For major hurricanes…It seems as tho PR always gets saved at the last min…but unfortunately our neighboring island arent that fortunate.
Thanks!
Great work btw. I made a donation, which I rarely do, bc I feel its worth to support great causes.
Lvei – opinion on latest EURO Run
We’re just N of Tampa
**Levi – typo basically says it shifted a job to the WEST – NO LIKE
could the water surges you were talking about that could affect GA affect the eastern shore of MD ? it makes me nervous being on the peninsula like we are.
BTW this is the best site that ive seen and I have been watching it every night for the past 4 nights.
…thanks dude!
You’re one of the best for us neophytes!
First time poster and new huge fan of the web page. So here is my rookie question. What is an official landfall according to the NHC? For example the eye of Irma passed over Barbuda and Saint-Martin and maybe over the British VI. So has she officially had 3 landfalls?
NHC downgraded Irma to a cat 2 as it makes landfall along sc/ga coast. If they had any uncertainty in that, why wouldn’t they just leave it at a 3 knowing that many people make a big distinction between a 2 and 3 and will likely change preparation and evacuation plans based on that? Can we assume that they are fairly certain it will be a 2 or below?
Levi,
Quite a debate ensuing on our old blog re wind field expansion over Florida. I hope you will educate us about that. Right now Dr Masters says he expects a slight expansion by Friday. Yet some commenters are insisting we expect 200 mile plus diameter hurricane force winds.
I realize Irma is breaking a lot of rules, but do you think that is hyperbole, fact, or something in between?
Thanks for all you do.
I’m unschooled in weather forecasts. Is there any chance that Jose and Irma combine early next week if Irma takes a more easterly path?
Great site!