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October 2017

[Thursday Evening] Nate to Impact Yucatan Friday and Central U.S. Gulf Coast by Saturday or Sunday

   Posted by Levi at 8:33pm on October 5, 2017

Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Nate




  • Rick B. says:

    Thanks, Levi for keeping us informed.

  • Drew says:

    Thanks Levi. Seems like the increased northerly speed of the storm will limit its potential to strengthen beyond a Cat 1.

    • SAR Jim says:

      Drew, we’ll have a better idea once it’s back out over water in the Caribbean. The RI models are still giving it a 50% chance of a 65 knot RI in 72 hours. That would be about eight hours before landfall. With the 65 knots being added to the 35 knots the storm is presently at, that would mean a 100 knot (115 mph) storm, a low level cat 3. With the frequency we’ve seen storms undergo some really mind blowing RI this season, I wouldn’t discount the possibility of this being a much stronger storm than currently forecast regardless of speed. I certainly hope that’s not the case, but my fear is we will be looking at a garden variety storm until about 16 hours before landfall and then it blows up. It’s going to catch a lot of people off guard if that happens.

      Regards, Jim

  • Joseph B. says:

    My thoughts are, landfall in Gulfport, Mississippi as a Cat 2.

    • SAR Jim says:

      Joseph, pretty hard to make that kind of forecast without knowing what Nate will look like when it emerges in the Gulf. This could be a small, mishapen kind of storm that struggles ot maintain a cloased low circulation or it could be quite healthy. If it actually does undergoe a 50 mph RI in the Gulf, a cat 2w isn’t out of the question, but a weak cat 1 is also not out of the question. When it comes ot landfall at this stage, anywhere from the mouth of the Mississippi to Panama City are about equally likely. We’ll ahve a better idea in 24 hours.

      Regards, Jim

    • Sandra Bentley says:

      National Hurricane center says Cat 1.

    • Robert says:

      Hey, Joe! What you been drinking? This system has NO chance of being a category 2 Cane, may not even be a Cane when it hits land! Too many things going against it! Wind shear, hitting land right now, etc. etc. etc.

  • Cody Miller says:

    Thanks for everything Levi! Anything at all that could perhaps nudge this any farther west towards Lake Charles or the Houston area?

  • Joe Boole says:

    Katrina veteran here in New Orleans. Lost everything 12 years ago. Spent years rebuilding. The difference now is I’m a husband and a father of a beautiful little girl. Battening down the house, got water, food, batteries, flashlights, radio, first-aid kit, sanitary wipes, places to stay in Texas and Arkansas, and a full tank of gas. Thank you so much for your reporting and knowledge. Will be checking for updates over the next 48 hours.

  • Chris says:

    Hello Levi,

    I am here in Riviera Maya ( Playa Del Carmen) for vacation, first time experiencing a tropical storm, and to be honest I’m excited as weird as that sounds. What is your projection on how hard it will hit us here? And if anyone has ever experienced a tropical storm live what should I expect and what should I do?

    I will also be taking a lot of photos and videos once it hits – so if anyone wants some of these message back with your email and I will be more than glad to forward them off!

    All the best,

  • Stan Chaz says:

    I did not et your Thursday email update as usual- had to go directly to your website to see it.

    • Sandra Bentley says:

      Put it on the home screen of your tablet, phone etc. Then you can click directly anytime.

  • Sandra Bentley says:

    Levied, your forecasts are truly life saving. I live in Central Florida & I have been tuning into tropical Tidbits all this season. During Irma when 20 of us were huddled together riding out the hurricane in a heavy duty building , I kept everyone informed via the various models on your site, which update regularly, as well as your videos. People kept joining us there, as they realised the center of Irma was literally about to go directly over us.

    So very grateful for what you do in helping us all get through the hurricane season!

  • […] Levi’s latest analysis here, he shows that the latest storm track now favors the GFS and that the European had been […]


    Thanks again Levi for such great information and discussions.

  • Gantt says:

    We need an update!

    • Ms Lambert says:

      CNN just reported that Mobile will now be the predicted landfall on Saturday evening. So the trend seems to be driving the storm east for now.

  • hammertyme1 says:

    Levi I just wanted to let you know how much we greatly appreciate your Insight and expertise on these storms we’ve been through 7 hurricanes and you have guided us through each and every one and have Been point on. I do not watch the local weather for the fact it wants to scare you to death and it doesn’t give you any detail so I always come to this site and to your expertise for my information. A really big thank you from me and my family to you .. Grady

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