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October 2017

[Wednesday Evening] TD16 Forms – Expected to Strengthen and Impact Central America and U.S. Gulf Coast

   Posted by Levi at 7:40pm on October 4, 2017

Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Depression Sixteen




  • Mike says:

    Great presentation. Curious what you think of intensity? Water in gulf is around 81 82 degeees. Not great for strengthening. Thanks again

    • SAR Jim says:

      Mike, mid-Gulf is more like 83 degrees and the Yucatan Basin is at 85. However, 81 or 85, that’s plenty warm for intensification and, in this case, rapid intensification. A lot will depend on how much land interaction takes place and if the future Nate is weakened or not. All we can do now is watch it and prepare. As Levi said, this one is a guaranteed US landfall. If you live along the Gulf coast, just assume it’s coming for you.

      Regards, Jim

  • Don W says:

    Awesome breakdown of what to look for in the battle of the op models! Still a lot of variables left to play out but, I know what I’m looking for tomorrow. Thanks for your insight & time!

  • James says:

    Awesome video as always… Seems as if the GFS is really struggling with that entity in the bahamas.

  • Rebecca Jacobs says:

    Thank you once again ;

  • Gregg says:

    Thanks for the update, really like your insight.

  • Aki says:

    Hello from Aruba. Discovered you from Category 6. Thank you for all that you do & your clear & concise presentations. I’m learning so much.

  • Polly Haldeman says:

    Love your scientific explanations! I always learn new things from you.

  • Carol Mahler says:

    Thanks, once again, for your clear, consise, instructive presentation. Always learn something! Keep up the great work!

  • harrycane says:

    Thank You !! From an Irma soggy guy.

  • Matthew says:

    So nice to have a individual online speak the truth about the weather. No fear mongering, just forecasting. Most people online, including some of the larger outposts, tend to make these systems have a broader impact than in reality. They make way to many assumptions, which only seems to confuse people. Especially with IRMA and it’s potential outcome. Our local weather Mets, were even telling folks around here, which is D.C. area, to brace for IRMA. We didnt even have a drop of rain here. Which is fine, but if they didnt jump the gun, and say the apocalypse was coming, then it wouldnt of been so bad. The forecast can change rapidly, especially with a tropical system in its infancy. Thanks for keeping the window open for all possibilities and Not pointing to a major city that’s in the cone.

  • Jason says:

    awesome work – really appreciate this

  • Gerry Diego says:

    Morning Levi,

    Long time follower. It looks like its following the GFS route and having more land interaction. How likely is it in your opinion that it will remain a Tropical Storm and go over the RIviera Maya (Playa del Carmen, Mexico) Is there any chance that land interaction will dissipate it? Since it is following the more Westerly track should we assume that it will follow the GFS path fairly closely?

    Thanks as always!


  • Jackie says:


    Much appreciate the articulate, thorough explanation of what Nate is doing. In particular, you make no claims to know where exactly Nate would hit at this time, other than somewhere in a Gulf state. Looking forward to Thursday Night’s presentation.

  • Kraig says:

    You can certainly see a low level spin south of Key West on the radar loop late morning and early afternoon….looks like the GFS is right with that…. BUT there’s also been a HUGE flair-up of convection off the Treasure Coast and northward at the same time similar to what the Euro was showing….. So they both are somewhat correct!

  • Oracle_De_Atlantis says:

    I love it when you do “nerd talk,” Levi.

    On September 30, I forecast a Florida strike, and as far as I know, I am the only forecaster who correctly called the massive season now underway.

  • mykldee says:

    Thanks Levi, Tell people about you all the time. Have been a 60 yr native to S Florida and you remind me of Brian Norcross in the old days. Sent you a small donation, Thank you keep it coming1

  • Johnathan Schneller says:

    Nice work on the “nerd talk” observation. You are the only one that I have heard point that out. Great job as always Levi

  • […] In the above figure, the NOAA’s GFS model run takes the storm track over Louisiana (left) while the European showed landfall occurring some 400 miles away to the east at the start of the Florida panhandle (right). If that doesn’t illustrate the huge uncertainty within models, then what does? Source: Image cropped from Tropical Tidbits. […]

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