[Monday Evening] Florence an Extreme Threat to the Southeast U.S.; Isaac to Hit Antilles; Olivia to Hit Hawaii; New Storm Could Form Near Texas/Mexico
Latest Information on All Storms from the National Hurricane Center
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Comments
I know you have had a hectic day. Thank you for taking the time to keep us up to date. You do a great job!
Outstanding work on your video presentations. I visit the
National Hurricane Center first and your blog second to
get an plain language explanation of what the storms &
hurricanes are up to.
Just curious as to why the high over the Atlantic will have little ability to move Florence northward toward Mid Atlantic or Northeast. Thanks for your detailed updates.
There is a building high in the Ohio Valley that prevents Florence to come further north. That’s why she will most likely stall. She is trapped under the high heights with no strong steering winds to move her along.
Joe,
My biggest fear is the light steering winds will allow the storm to wander around NC and VA for several days before it can finally moves off to the west. It’s even possible it could just wander north. When it’s all said and done, inland flooding will be the big story from Flo.
Regards, Jim
I fully appreciate these reports; they are of genuine value. The specificity and comprehensive view is helping us make the decision as to whether or not to leave and when. Nothing is certain but facts are facts. Thank you.
Patty,
If you’re on the coast of SC, NC, or VA, and you’re in an area of previous hurricane impacts, leave today. Starting tomorrow, traffic will be horrendous heading north and inland, and gas will get harder and harder to find. Staying with relatives or friends for a few days isn’t bad compared to trying to ride out a powerful hurricane. Even having to stay in a hotel, except for the expense, isn’t bad of you can still get a room.
Regards, Jim
Thanks for the comprehensive discussion. Too bad the folks at ‘The Weather Channel’ cannot speak as clearly and precisely. I fear some of them cause folks to get entirely wrong messages, particularly with their inability to even speak proper english!
Thanks for the good work
Hang in there, Levi, and take care of yourself during hell week. Thanks for the update. Will look forward to further updates.
Thanks for the update, Levi. We got the evacuation orders for tomorrow here in Hampton, VA. Not looking forward to the coming days.
What kind of winds can we expect in maryland? It has rained here for a week straight and it wont take much for a major power outage event.
Chach, I doubt wind will be a major problem in MD unless Flo starts taking a more NNW path.Biggest problem is going to be rain. You’ll be on the wet side of the storm and i wouldn’t be surprised to see two to three days of fairly heavy rain, depending on the exact path of the TS as it gets inland. It won’t take a lot of wind to topple trees in saturated ground so local power outages are likely but an area wide power outage looks like a low order of probability right now. Good luck.
Regards, Jim
Thank you for the reply. We haven’t seen the sun in a week. Hoping we get a dry day or two but all the steams are still running high and lots of sitting water around. Obviously people south have bigger problems heading their way just trying to prepare to be stuck inside with my kids all weekend :)
Hi Levi, Great video as usual. What would a weakening of the upper high over Ohio due to lowering pressure in the Gulf of Mexico effect Florence? Would it allow Florence to travel west or would it keep if off the coast of North Carolina and up the east coast off shore?
Well the system in the Gulf of Mexico probably won’t cause a weakening of the Midwest ridge, and unfortunately it is still expected to cause Florence to move very slowly for a few days. Whether that’s near the coast or inland remains to be seen. There has been a recent trend toward just a slow movement westward after landfall beneath the aforementioned ridge.
Thanks for including “the microwave pass from a couple of hours ago,” so that we can see the eye wall hadn’t yet fully developed. Your scrutiny of the meteorological data and forecast models and analysis and explanations, with a view to synthesizing it all and presenting it is good effort and works well. I would suggest continuing to incorporate your understanding of what you found technically into your presentation, with more integration of maps, so that you add layers to the explanation and presentation. imho. Best.
Troy,
Just a small correction, the eyewall had fully developed. It’s now showing gaps probably due to an eyewall replacement cycle.
Regards, Jim
So far, the lowest GFS pressure is 909 mb on the midnight model run… around 170 mph
Daniel,
Just so we don’t panic people, that’s a model, and it’s showing the lowest pressure when the storm is still a fair distance offshore. Models have a difficult time predicting intensity of any storm, and Flo is no exception when it’s still at least three days from landfall. Regardless of the highest winds offshore (and 170 mph would be right up there with the strongest hurricanes on record), it’s not likely to be anywhere near that high at landfall. However, people in NC/SC should be preparing for the worst.
Regards, Jim
The way I see it….I don’t even think I’m going to have to take down my bird feeders, let alone evacuate! Unless this thing takes a sharp turn to the south, this is strictly going to be a N.C, Virginia hit with lots of rain when it stalls after hitting land fall. By the way, I live just north of Savannah, Ga.
Levi,
Thanks so much for what you do! In the event that there is nothing around to steer the storm as it approaches the coast and begins to stall, is it possible for it to drift north with the Gulfstream? Also, I keep hearing that the storm could weaken slightly as it approaches but the water in the stream is 3° warmer than everything else around it. Wouldn’t that give Florence a chance to actually strengthen?
Hi Claude,
Florence’s exact movement may be unpredictable once it slows down. It’s possible it could meander near the coast or a bit inland. Although the Gulf Stream is very warm, wind shear will be increasing as the storm approaches, which could weaken it slightly. In addition, hurricanes that stall over water tend to cool that water very quickly, Gulf Stream or not, and that could also induce slight weakening if the stall occurs close to the coast.
Makes sense. Thanks for taking the time to respond to my question!
Is there a possibility that the system could be pulled southwest more and come to Georgia or South Carolina still?
A direct hit on Georgia is not expected, but South Carolina is definitely still threatened. In fact, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for most of the South Carolina coastline.
Levi or Jim,
For the last 48 hours or so, the model here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ shows Flo just hanging out at the coast for a couple days before moving inland yet the video doesn’t mention that possibility and uses the NOAA track instead.
Is the TTB model a possibility?
Thanks for the good work.
WD
The default model shown there is the GFS model, and it is only one of many. While the evolution it shows is possible, the official forecast uses all available data together to make the best possible estimate of the storm’s future. Some models have biases that make them prone to certain types of errors. It’s best not to focus much on one particular model.
Jim, we do want to prepare for the worst and hope for the best! I know the current GFS forecast has the mb forecast at 942 mb offshore. However, I am trying to just get information out there on the potential effects of a bigger than expected, or average if you will, storm. And of course without the classic boy crying wolf, and though the pressure now appears reduced, the expected flooding now is a major problem irregardless. The storm may not be a Camille, but we see what are, expected to be, still fairly severe winds! No offense, just that I suggest you read Benoit Mandelbrot on mathematical information on Hurst and historical flooding of the Nile River. Also, I have gone over many climate change scenarios and have seen new information that is feeding into the models. And in many cases the scientists are seeing dangers, for fear of error or reprisal, but are reticent to express them to the greater detriment of future generations. Stay safe and prepare!
Daniel, no offense taken I just think we weather ners need to be careful about what we say since there are so many “normal” people show up for storms. The NHC has been spot on with their forecasting in the recent past, and they have a lot of people way smarter than me looking at the same (and more) models than we do. They will hop right on changes when a consensus develops.
Regards, Jim
Okay. And just for fun, Stephen Hawking, Carl Sagan, and Arthur C. Clark (communications satellite) weren’t too shabby and are our forbearers. And on the video with all three gentlemen, Arthur C. Clarke mentioned Benoit Mandelbrot, who wrote about the mathematics of flooding to further our knowledge of infrastructure for hurricane preparation!
(Clarke contributed to the popularity of the idea that geostationary satellites would be ideal telecommunications relays.)
Stay safe!
Regards
Hi There,
Please understand I do not wish to belittle the events that are to come for the Carolina’s, or for that matter any of the coastal states. However, I do wish to ask my own very selfish question. I live in central NY, less than 100 miles west of Albany and we experienced Irene up here – and NOBODY was telling us to be on the lookout – we were completely blindsided, and many of lost a lot because we didn’t prepare adequately. What is the best forecast for the remnants of Flo once she leaves the coast? Thanks in advance for any thoughts/guidance you can give.
Abseka, it’s not completely impossible for Flo to end up somewhere in NY, but it’s really much too early to predict that. Foresting has improved by leaps and bounds over the past seven years, and I don’t think anyone will get blindsided of the remnants of Flo move up that way.
Regards, Jim
Abzeka, at this time you are relatively safe! Copy the NWS link below for total rainfall over the next 7 days. It was updated at 3:53 am today.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1536692479
Abzeka, so far you are safe! Check forecast maps at NWS to see forecast seven day precipitation totals!
Levi, Could you put up NWS forecast maps 7 day rainfall totals! Thanks. All turn around din’t drown! Move to safe areas!
I would check the NOAA 0age again the 5pm track looks different with that end bubble more southern. And now including southern SC and wind and rains in northern Georgia.
S. Mcall, the big change is bothe GFS and Euro now have the storm moving onshore somewhere between central NC and northern SC. After that, the storm drifts south into the rest of SC, over in into GA, and then up through TN. Yesterday, it was only the Euro that showed that. It could be something that may happen, or it could be the GFS just picking up more of the track from the Euro. Since it’s likely steering currents will collapse just offshore and inland from landfall, a drift to the north or south could happen depending on the Ohio valley ridge. All we can do is watch and wait since these are just models for now.
Regards, Jim.
My son suggested we take a look at your website as an alternative to the hype of the Weather Channel. We are not disappointed! Thank you for your clear and helpful explanations of the forces of weather. We live in Sapphire, NC, along the escarpment. Many times the forecast understates our potential rainfall. Any clue as to what we can expect with Florence?