[8am Monday] Dorian Stalling over Grand Bahama

   Posted by Levi at 8:22am on September 2, 2019

Dorian has nearly stalled over Grand Bahama this morning, and is barely drifting northwestward, a horrifying situation for the island. In a game of inches, the fact that this has occurred over the eastern half of the island instead of the western half might be good news for Florida, though this guarantees nothing.

The one major computer model that was still showing a direct Florida landfall (HWRF) has trended offshore overnight, which is also good news. Other models like ECMWF and GFS trended closer to the coast (40-50 miles offshore), which would still be a dangerous track.

The storm is also beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which while typically accompanied by a decrease in max winds, also results in a broadening of the wind field, making it more likely to impact Florida even if the eye is offshore.

Again, nothing is guaranteed. Tiny wobbles in the storm track could have vast consequences. Be vigilant, and be prepared just in case the worst happens.


43 comments

   

Comments

  • Anonymous says:

    Great stuff thanks

  • Steve M says:

    Thanks for all the detailed info Levi, those of us on east coast of Florida appreciate the updates

  • K says:

    Thank you from North Carolina.

  • Robin Hurst says:

    Excellent site.

  • Gordon Richards says:

    Hanging on your every word. Keep posting changes, good and/or bad.

    In Daytona Beach watching the HWRF. Otherwise beginning to look a lot like Matthew.

  • Jason says:

    Levi, can you explain the cloud ball, outside right of storm,moving extremely fast on Goes16, channel 9 from 11z to 1330z.

    • Yrral says:

      The best source for hurricane info is the NWS weather radio, they give a detailed synopsis of the hurricane, with all the watches and warning, TV weather people only confused those, that are clueless about weather Google Meteoblue West Palm Beach

  • Jamie Robe says:

    Levi, your nightly videos bring a sense of order to an otherwise chaotic situation. You help us understand the underlying weather/global reasons for the variations in Dorian. Thank you,
    Jamie

  • Susan Lowe says:

    Thanks so much Levi. I’m on the west coast of Florida and have family/friends on the east coast. Have shared your wonderful website.

  • J says:

    Levi, your updates are much appreciated by me!

  • janet says:

    Levi,
    I look forward to your updates whenever a storm approaches. It helps to understand the underlying causes that drive the model predictions as they often make little sense on the surface. Thank you for taking the time to educate and inform us. You really make a difference.

  • Steven Matison says:

    Levi, thank you sir for your amazing website. A friend shared it with me for Hurricane Matthew, and I have used it ever since. Hurricane Irma and now Dorian too.

  • Giovanni Abrate says:

    Great job. I appreciate your taking the time to put this together. I live in Royal Palm Beach and I used to teach Meteorology to pilots. Thanks!

  • Renee says:

    Levi,
    I am moving from Jacksonville to Wellington on Sunday. Suffice to say that while moving is stressful enough, moving during a hurricane is terrifying. I found your website via FB and am so glad I did. Your calm demeanor and “just the facts” method has kept me calm and prepared. I don’t watch the news normally, as I can’t stand the dramatic headlines and ominous music that accompany them, but during a storm I didn’t think I had a choice. Now I do. THANK YOU for what you do. I will keep checking back as I continue packing. Please keep updating as often as you can, especially with your videos. Your explanations really help us understand what is actually happening.

    Gratefully,

    A new and true fan

  • Jose L.Lobon says:

    Thank you very much for your nightly videos.
    I appreciate the tone and explanations.
    It changes the cataclysmic hoopla and noise of the weather channels and the Scientific mumbo jumbo of most of the weather websites into an understandable fact filled narration.
    You have a gift!!

    Thanks again.

  • Abby Wilson says:

    Thank you from Charleston, SC!

  • M. Slayton says:

    Levi, I want to thank you for your clear and informative videos. It’s helps to understand the predictions that the NHC makes and I appreciate the fact that you explain WHY hurricanes move they way they do. On a side note, my son attends FSU. Go Noles! —MS

  • BONNIE L RADWANCKY says:

    Love all the information provided! This site allows for one to make their own conclusions for all the data from the different models are right here! No need to listen to all the drama that news casters add into the mix! The sharing of your knowledge is just so helpful to all who like to think with their own minds while they continue to learn and gain a sense of understanding just how forecaster come to their conclusion of what they share to the public.

    I below am sharing some food for thought for any and all who believe we all hold value. The truth is non are wiser but by communication we all gain from a equal yet different perspective. This communication gives way to gain in understanding that feeds the growth of compassion. That brings all to see a bit more in focus that we as just one are nothing and we simply need one another, for we together are what makes the greater and amazing ONE> We all hold an equal value and all gain when we GIVE. To grow in greatness, we must have some sort of desire a tool fuels with compassion. To gain compassion, we need some sort of understanding. Understanding come from the wisdom we obtained by experience and communication. Therefore, communication is key is derived from sharing and therefore by ones giving. We all then grow thru an understanding of which then makes way for one to have compassion. Compassion gives greater ability for us all to grow a bond of love for one another. To make this all so very simply we all gain simply by GIVING. To give you shall receive. I think we have all become confused by our own self. We have taken what is just by nature, in form of basic and simple, to the point where it has become complicated and hard! Stop, breathe and clear your mind and relax, so you have the ability to think and focus. It is easy. In my mind we all live RAW; *Right Alongside Wrong*. By nature, and design there is not one without the other. As the like, the difference holds key part to the same equal whole. The difference is what give way allowing there to be same. Naturally, by pure nature the value held, is equal to one. Therefore, in my own conclusion, In math one holds a number value of just 1 and is less than 2. I think not! For, by natures design one can not be less than 2! It is much greater and greater than my own ability to fully understand. And personally, I have chose to give this and all credit to our creator, which I call our higher power, our very souls energy. By given choice, I just believe giving faith and trust in the bond I share in my own personal relationship with the one who holds all, therefore is simply the wisest. I do not hold the wisdom of the wisest, though in my heart I know I am a very part as you. I can only share my given for knowledge, and sharing is key to all who see the gift we all have been given in our own life as an individual. Alone it is impossible to love all, but with our GREATER the GREATEST all is simply now just possible! Peace to all my friends. Sign me simply B… RAW. a.k.a B. Radwancky

  • Ted says:

    A very precise and well explained interpretation without all the extra drama as seen on mainstream channels on TV. This is my go to site for Tropical activity.We have a seasonal camper near coastal Southern New Jersey , so also vigilant about the northeastern track later this week. Thanks Levi !

  • Anon says:

    Yesterday a lot of comments from people saying they didn’t trust the models and they thought it might not turn north. I see no comments like that today. Does that mean we are getting more assurance that this thing will indeed turn north ?

  • andy says:

    thank you Levi! i live 3 miles from ocean on the space coast and due to your analysis helped me make a more informative decision so I decided not to take the chance and evacuated inland. I like the fact that you really emphasize the unpredictability of hurricanes and lean on the side of caution. You also do a great job of explaining the factors that will determine which track the storm will take, and cues to look for that will determine it’s future direction. I feel other outlets provide a false sense of security. for example, although all outlets puts up the cone of uncertainty, many lean too heavily on the NHC forecast track. i believe that causes the average viewer to misinterpret the meaning of that track (the same ones that read the headlines and not the story)!

  • Chris says:

    Seems like both hurricane hunter flights scheduled for this morning ran into unforeseen issues and could not scout the storm.
    With the complete stall occurring slightly south and east of where the models were predicting, it will be interesting to see how the model runs late today reconcile that difference in regards to steering dynamics falling into place north of the storm.
    If the window of opportunity passes to be pulled between the forecasted weakness in the high pressure cap to the north, the storm can not advance in any direction. Incredibly difficult forecast. So many meteorological elements are dependant on each other for things to go as anticipated.
    The storm could easily drift there barely off the coast and be fueled by the gulf stream that could almost entirely negate the effects of upwelling.
    Looking at the current surface map, if another ridge of high pressure overtakes the area and develops in place of the trough that is forecasted to pull Dorian north, no steering remains. Subtle land interaction with Florida would become the primary agent in the storms eventual and gradual demise. The 0-48 hour surface map shows high pressure locked in place over the mid atlantic states blocking northward movement.
    I am definitely looking forward to the high level dropsonde recon mission scheduled in a few hours to provide more clues and guidance.
    This storm has already developed a reputation for not following the script.
    Exceptionally difficult compilation of variables to interpret for this forecast!

    • ModelsRule says:

      Part of the challenge with all the weather models is that there are far too few data points relative to the number of degrees of freedom. The non-linear interactions that define a storm of this size are very difficult to model to begin with. It is actually amazing how good a job the models are doing given these challenges. We have a long way to go but we have also come a long way. Hat’s off to Levi and his ilk.

    • Anonymous says:

      Chris has the data you were curious about come in?

  • Sandra says:

    Great informative understandable information with great graphics sans the doom and gloom. Just solid, take precautions, take it seriously and prepare. Perfect!

  • clay says:

    Would love more updates. I was very happy to see this mornings update. Seems like a critical point right now.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    The GFS just did a magnificent job on the latest run locking in upcoming rainfall totals with the previous 365 day rainfall grid/map at AHPS.

    Great website.

  • rudi gedamke says:

    Thanks. Now I understand. You have a teacher’s gift.
    Fom a retired Literature Professor.

  • Anonymous says:

    Those poor people in Grand Bahama are going to be round into dust or drown in the 30 inches of rainfall if that thing doesn’t move soon. God be with them, that said I still wonder if the forecasters are a bit nervous this thing doesn’t break script and wobble into FL

  • James Thaxton says:

    In Saint Lucie County, I live approximately 5-6 miles from the ocean. It’s just after 1700 hrs and we’re getting mild off and on rain, and varient winds, respectively.

    I know it’s going to be a little longer than we expected. Be safe my south east coasters.

    Btw – I found this site 5 days ago, and after hearing your detailed explanations, it makes watching the weather Channel seem as if they have been reporting for people with 8th – 10th grade education levels.

    Needless to say, you (your site, AWESOME SITE) are my new GO TO for storms, ty for explaining your forecast and current situations with graphics, and the who, what’s, where’s, and why’s on your conclusions and observations!

    James

  • Sean says:

    Hands down best site out there. And I agree most informative. I live inWellington Florida which is about 7 miles from west palm beach. My whole day, since this storm has been projected to hit, is waiting for your video at night. Everybody that finds this site useful, there is a donation section up top. This guy def deserves a bit of gratitude from all of us.

  • Lisa says:

    Thank you again for your very insightful update! I did feel like there was content re-used at 9:53 into the video from yesterday, 9/1 (and the date up top confirms this), but nevertheless, it is great info to take away from it and continue looking at patterns like these. I feel that if it is worth your time repeating, it is an important idea to consider more deeply or pronounced.

  • Eric says:

    Oh hi Levi I just found your website and appreciate all your information. Last year I became hooked on the earth.nullschool.net website but still learning to use the earth wind map your explanation helps. Thank you. Could you also maybe show explain how Dorian may be affecting the highs (H) on either side of the hurricane thus possibly pushing it Northward away from Florida and how there may be storms forming on the other side of the Highs (H)? It just seems there is something else brewing in Gulf of Mexico and SE of Bermuda that may or may not have any correlation with Dorian. Just wondering thanks.

  • You actually make it appear really easy together with your presentation however I find this topic to be actually something which I feel I would never understand. It sort of feels too complex and very broad for me. I’m looking ahead for your subsequent submit, I’ll try to get the cling of it!

  • nick says:

    Thank you, Levi! This site is excellent and I recommend it to everyone who asks where they can find recent information!!!

  • Steve says:

    Best information i have found thats not filled with fear mongering, keep it up!

  • Jaclyn says:

    I feel definitely pleased to have seen your own webpage and appearance forward to be able to so majy more interesting times
    reading here. Cheers yet again foor all the particular details.

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