Dorian has nearly stalled over Grand Bahama this morning, and is barely drifting northwestward, a horrifying situation for the island. In a game of inches, the fact that this has occurred over the eastern half of the island instead of the western half might be good news for Florida, though this guarantees nothing.
The one major computer model that was still showing a direct Florida landfall (HWRF) has trended offshore overnight, which is also good news. Other models like ECMWF and GFS trended closer to the coast (40-50 miles offshore), which would still be a dangerous track.
The storm is also beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which while typically accompanied by a decrease in max winds, also results in a broadening of the wind field, making it more likely to impact Florida even if the eye is offshore.
Again, nothing is guaranteed. Tiny wobbles in the storm track could have vast consequences. Be vigilant, and be prepared just in case the worst happens.
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