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September 2019

[Tuesday Night] Dorian Moving Northward; Flooding and Damaging Winds Possible Along Coastline from Central Florida to North Carolina

   Posted by Levi at 9:28pm on September 3, 2019




  • J says:

    Heeacane Dorian is at a Cat. 3 – is that correct? Thanks Levi, for the sustained hard work analyzing it.

  • Wendy says:

    Still utterly love your analysis. Thank you for the continued lack of hype, completely down-to-earth science and thorough explanations, and calm presentation of the facts.

    Will always merrily follow this site! I pray it never comes down. Or at least doesn’t come down for a very, very long time.

    • Wendy, your comments are right on the money. This man has the most detailed and professional weather analysis I have seen anywhere since about 1963 when WTVT in Tampa, Florida had reports like this. You not only got the weather report in detail, but got an education with it. Thank you Levi for the hard work and very professional approach. You are a breath of fresh air. (Pun intended). Dave.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Top cat 2 Heavy rain is moving across north St. Augustine from the NE!

    • J says:

      Well that’s not something you can get often there. Must feel like you’re in a Twilight Zone episode.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Another great analysis by Levi. More small storms now appearing on radar east and northeast of Jacksonville. And now a main band of the Dorian is approaching Jacksonville from the east. Stay safe and turn around, don’t drown.

  • Joseph says:

    Can Hurriccane Dorian stay offshore with the eye never coming ashore & directly effecting land?

  • Sandra Bentley says:

    Levi, can you address the tropical disturbance that looks like It’s coming soon as seen on the GFS when we look at the whole Atlantic. GFS goes out to the 18th September and has it going towards Florida again. I certainly don’t want to prep again, and this looks like It’s making a similar route as Dorian. Thank you for all you do.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Above, I meant Hurricane is strong cat 2. GFS just bumped up rain totals at the southern area of South Carolina.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    I can see the last two runs of the GFS show another hurricane forming and then going through the Bahamas.

  • TheWetOne says:

    Damn you’re good. Your clear, concise, no hype presentation is so helpful, I just can’t thank you enough.
    I’m a native Floridian, currently in coastal east/central FL and, by the way, about to get Dorian’s 3am band. I found you five days ago and you’re already my go to site for tropical analysis. Shared your site with several friends and they are equally impressed.
    So thanks again, and keep up the good work!
    Now I can tune in to the rain gear and microphone crowd for some comic relief.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    2. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
    Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands later today.
    Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
    development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
    week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Hurricane Dorian continues toward areas lowest in previous 365 days rainfall at AHPS including an area near or at Long Bay (lowest in the SE U.S.). and approx. 10-20 miles south of Myrtle Beach.

  • Thanks so much for this analysis. It’s helpful to understand why the storm is behaving as it is, especially when waffling whether to evacuate. We are NE of New Bern, NC. I’ll be watching this site from now on and sharing with others. Thanks again!

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    Looking at this at Physics World:

    Climate models predict that as the temperature of the Earth rises, the amount of precipitation and the height from which it falls will increase as well. This means the atmosphere would expend more energy lifting water vapour, and that could leave less energy for driving the circulation of air around the planet, says Pauluis.

  • Daniel Olesen says:

    The UK Met Office has already heavily invested in quantum computing to help improve forecasting, while IBM Research have collaborated with The Weather Company, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in America to develop a rapidly-updating, storm-scale model that could predict thunderstorms at a local level.

  • Mandie says:

    So, so grateful that someone shared this resource with me. I echo previous comments regarding the mood of these reports. Thank you Levi! I am actually learning about meteorological events 😃

  • Mary Ellen Baily says:

    In CHARLESTON SC. Please address this location tonight.
    Thank you for all you do to keep this site up and running.

    • Jono says:

      Keeping an eye out for any Charleston updates here as well. Gonna’ be a tricky 48 hours in the Lowcountry.

  • Dayvid says:

    That “Daniel” guy here is really annoying, he trolling the hell out of these videos.

  • Cglrcng says:

    Anyone else watching the Water vapor map right now? The South Carolina coast Dorian interaction looks like it is ripping all the cloud tops right off and sending it into the front / trough, and it is all racing off mainly northeast at what looks like 100’s of miles an hour.

    The mass of clouds and moisture now covers about 10 stayes plus into the GOM down below Tampa. Dorian is attempting to suck it back in but losing the battle.

    Turned Dorian into a huge number 9…Rip her apart SC, I just hope she isn’t also ripping apart Charleston too though!

  • Cglrcng says:

    Sry about the typo, recounted 15 states. And even a tiny bit into the east edge of Alabama. From Long Island, NY down to Cuba, a tiny bit in Alabama, up into Kentucky and West Virgina, and all points in between.

    There may not be enough left to hit the turn at this rate, at least not as a true cyclone IMHO. Can it still be a hurricane without all the moisture? Or is it then just a remnant low wind field?

    • Cglrcng says:

      Ok, maybe I was wishcasting above based on my observations, and will apologize. A good jog east happened at 9:26Z, and it became more annular again and it is still the same monster and even looks meaner now. Too much energy there to just shear apart that easily. Turn time beat the landfall and the NHC forcast wins above all else.

      But Levi, your explanations are amazing. Calm, concise and spot on, full of great information.

  • Cglrcng says:

    Cmo’n S.C. scrape a couple more times, inject more cool dry air into Dorian and blow that eyewall completely apart before it has a chance to touch land! Enough is enough, I just have a feeling at this point wishcasting can’t hurt. Anything before more damage is done by This “D Named” Beast!

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