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Tropical Storm Iota Forms – Likely to Strengthen and Threaten Central America

   Posted by Levi at 6:03pm on November 13, 2020


65 comments

   

Comments

  • Shawn says:

    Thanks again levy for yet another great update I really appreciate the time and effort you dedicate in making this update possible. I also hope that you are not serverly affected by the passage of Eta. Another 3-5 days of rain for me here in Jamaica very concern with what Iota can do to us even when traveling miles away form us not going to be an easy weekend.

  • someone says:

    We won’t know how strong it is now until recon goes in there, cold be a lot stronger, just saying.

  • someone says:

    could*, sorry

  • Costa Athan says:

    As it is late in the season and not knowing when your last video will post, we wanted to thank you for the service you provide to all of us in Florida and for sharing your relatable expertise. You the man Levi. Stay safe and happy holidays!!!

  • Gary f Burnett says:

    To all it’s gonna be a late season deep into december.stay safe all over the gulf. .the watchers..

  • Anonymous says:

    For some reason I can’t comment under my username…

  • someone says:

    “Theta has run out of theta-e.” LOL, btw it is post-tropical.

  • Qwerty says:

    Iota has explosively intensified into a category 4, and is supposed to peak at 155mph or more! If you are living in Central America, please evacuate!!!

  • someone says:

    The streak continues, 5 years in a row with a cat 5

  • Loki says:

    SCARY stuff mark

  • someone says:

    Mission 7 is about to go into Iota, hopefully it has peaked, but it is 2020, it may intensify up to landfall and make landfall in an area that is already destroyed.

  • someone says:

    This storm is most likely on a weaking trend, eye temperature has cooled off, winds aren’t as strong and the pressure is rising, it could be downgraded to a C4 before landfall.

    • Qwerty says:

      Also, the eye is starting to be less symmetrical.

    • kenn says:

      Nope… Eye is clearing out. You can see the surface of the Ocean indicating strengthening! It’s as powerful as Camille. Camille pushed the Mississippi upstream @ Elsah IL when it made landfall. Since the region is already flooded, standing water on the ground, storm surge will flow into, over and above flooded areas. Pushing well inland i suspect. It will still be CAT 3 when it overrides that City with pop. of 2.4 million. Could become an: ‘Extinction Event’, for that region of the Bio Sphere.

    • someone says:

      I have just realized that I called Iota’s weaking, Lol.

  • kenn says:

    Since the region is already flooded, with standing, stagnant waters from Eta, heated by daytime sun, and warming; i’m thinking: “Brown Water Effect”?

    • Qwerty says:

      Land interaction will weaken the storm even with the waters, as the waters will be too shallow for strengthening.

      • kenn says:

        Shallow but very warm! We shall see! Looks like Cat 3 winds have already made landfall…. 1 for the History books, i expect!

        • Qwerty says:

          Indeed. The storm will weaken a bit slower, but after moving a few miles onshore, the storm will weaken as fast as it intensified from a CAT 3 to a CAT 4.

  • Anonymous says:

    Aloha Levi,
    do you see these trends of storms this season continuing to be worse or better next hurricane season?

    all the best thank your for all your tidbits Mahalo

  • kenn says:

    So Iona is traversing Nicaragua quite rapidly this morning, and afternoon. Still very much intact. Healthy rotation, 4/5ths of it’s way to the Pacific. Any forecast on how it develops, and what direction it takes when it does emerge from the west coast, back out over the open ocean of the Pacific?

    • Qwerty says:

      You have to remember that in a world where Hurricane Barry (2019) looked like a blob, the opposite can be true for Iota.

  • kenn says:

    Looks like Invest 98E is being absorbed in the Eastern Outer band of Iota?

    • Qwerty says:

      Nope. Iota is not a close enough to the invest for this to happen. I’m starting to wonder if you’re a troll… :|

      • kenn says:

        It is happening as i type. Convection from 98E in exploding in the outer eastern band, just south of landfall demarcation. Who gives a **** what you’re wondering? Wonder to yourself.

        • Qwerty says:

          Seriously, look at how far apart the two systems are. They are over 1000 miles apart. Or maybe you’re looking at the wrong system?

          • kenn says:

            1000 miles, that’s what i figured. About distance from St Louie to Denver. I can’t explain it, just an observation. My thinking is that Iota created a vacuum, and is drawing that system into it? Dunno. Have any idea on the SSTs just off the west coast, Pacific, of Nicaragua. I know from having swam in both Atlantic & Pacific that the Pacific is much colder! Possibly you could do that research? Be interesting today, when sun comes, up to see if Iota redevelops? Thx

  • Kenneth E. Lamb says:

    Dear Dr. Cowan:

    Well, I was wondering how long it’d be before you burned out. G-d knows you gave it your best shot, however, you’re still human like all the rest of us, and obviously you’ve reached your physical and intellectual limit.

    I want to congratulate you for lasting as long as you did. Your work is without doubt the Gold Standard for tropical storm vlogs. Nobody touches the quality, accuracy, and depth that you bring to your viewers.

    You might as well message your viewers that it’s over for this season. Trust me on this, when I had to message my editors the same way, it took so much pressure off of me. I didn’t have to lay in bed at night feeling guilty for not chasing the latest storm. I know you are too much of a First Tier professional for it not to bother you when you miss a night. Stop beating yourself up, and admit that there is a limit to what a person can do as they age, and that you’ve reached that limit this year.

    Nobody will fail to understand, nobody will criticize your decision. The respect people have for you is way beyond any negatives.

    Missing Iota, and now if there is another one named Kappa, shows that continuing to post nightly vlogs about the tropics is just beyond any single human’s endurance.

    Please accept my most sincere expression of respect for this year’s efforts. Respectfully, maybe it’s time that you looked at the calendar and admitted you’ve reached an age where a person just can’t go on as you have this year. You have an entire professional table filled with so many plates – you can only juggle so many until they start to fall off and break on the floor.

    Respectfully, maybe it’s time you partnered with another First Tier vlogger; you have to recognize that the contribution you make to public safety is too vital to have so many missed nights.

    Dr. Cowan, when you miss a night, it’s as if the NHC decided to not post for a night either. Yes, your contribution is really that significant. Time to admit the Reality of aging, and bring some young energy into the vlog.

    You owe it not only to your viewers; you owe it to every human on Earth who is buffeted, flooded, devastated, and has their life destroyed by these storms.

    It’s not about Dr. Cowan; it’s about humanity. G-d gave you a much higher calling than self.

    Please read this as the sincere, powerfully respectful compliment and endorsement that it is; lives depend on you. Whether you recognize the impact you have on humanity, or maybe your sense of humility holds you back from recognizing that impact; the Reality is that Tropical Tidbits has to publish every night, for every storm.

    You made it what it is, and now you have to live up to it.

    G-d has placed millions of lives in your hands – yes millions. It’s your responsibility to safeguard them by doing whatever it takes to protect them.

    . . . Respectfully submitted for your most focused consideration.

  • Loki says:

    WHAT HAPPENED TO NOT HAVING A C5 THIS TIME

  • someone says:

    Iota has said goodbye, it has degenerated into a remnant low and the storm has dissipated. Good ridance.

    • kenn says:

      Nope. Ck-out latest SAT:

      https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=cam&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

      Entered the Pacific and cloud tops are roiling. System to the east is being absorbed into outer eastern bands. Broiling high cloud tops. Will pull massive area of squally weather, and copious amounts of additional rainfall over the region, including those to the n & s of Iota’s landfall.

      I’m calling this: Phase 3. My Timeline starts when 1st outer bands of Eta made landfall. Phase 1. Iota = Phase 2. Now were beginning = Phase 3 of this: DISASTER. Everything on the ground is demolished. The entire Region is now a: DISASTER ZONE!

      More Phases to follow as conditions continue to deteriorate post this Tropical System.

      • Qwerty says:

        From the final advisory of IOTA: “ Although the system still has broad mid-level rotation, synoptic
        observations from Central America show that the surface circulation
        of Iota has dissipated. Its remnants are located somewhere near El
        Salvador.

        Although the remnants of Iota are likely to move into the eastern
        North Pacific during the next day or so, the global models do not
        show regeneration of the system over that basin.” – Forecaster Pasch

        • kenn says:

          Yeah. High level rotating clouds. But it’s generating winds, and cloud cover. Drawing a feeder band from the Atlantic over Guatemala, generating some rain showers; into it’s circulation in the Pacific. Lower Right Quadrant is funneling winds, probably surg, and rain into that Bay(?). Also creating Westerly shear for the area of Convection to the east. As Iota pulls away, that s the System to watch, as something is transpiring with it? Will it be pulled over land, and become next rainmaker? Thx!

          • Qwerty says:

            Iota is now a hot mess of clouds, and there is isolated convection in random parts of it. Again, read my previous comment.

          • Qwerty says:

            The water vapor imagery also shows this.

          • kenn says:

            Amd: Still influencing the weather over the region. Heavy storms imbedded in that Northern feeder band.

          • Qwerty says:

            I’m afraid that feeder band you’re talking about is decaying.

          • kenn says:

            Well, checking this a.m. 6:45 CST, she’s moved out into the eastern Pacific. South of another area of circulation west of Baja CA; so not dead yet!

            Of immediate concern, is an area of rotation in vicinity of disturbed weather we’ve been observing, east of C.A. Convection to its SW.

  • someone says:

    Polo’s LLC decoupling from circulation, hint that shear is getting to it as well as dry air.

  • kenn says:

    That System east of Central America is really beginning to look like a serious threat. We could really use some Expert analysis on it!

  • Loki says:

    Good riddance Iota hello eastern pacific thingy.

  • Loki says:

    Mr. Levi probably needed a break because 31 formed storms counting TD 10.

  • presidentofyes12 says:

    The GFS model has a slight rotation for the remnants of Iota, but extremely disorganized and barely a tropical storm, if a tropical storm at all. Likely not going to see anything come out of it’s remnants.

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  • Qwerty says:

    I just wanted to point out that there is still convection blowing up in the remnants of Polo, as of 3:00 PM EST.

  • Shift674 says:

    There’s a bunch of convection near Central America that has been persistent, but I’m prett sure it’s just convection lol

  • Loki says:

    6:22 Pm December 2nd, 2020. Convection and rotation either Iota or Polo continues to plow a pot in central pacific

  • Shift674 says:

    I’m pretty sure that’s the “Intertropical Convergence Zone”.

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