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September 2022

[Tuesday] Dangerous Hurricane Ian Tracking Toward Florida; Life-Threatening Impacts Likely

   Posted by Levi at 1:34pm on September 27, 2022




  • Anonymous says:

    Not much here. Disappointed a little. Waited 25 hours for this?

    • Jackie says:

      It’s a lot here. Hurricane landfall prediction is still not an exact science. Many complex factors are at play which you don’t understand, apparently. I, for one appreciate Levi’s presentations.

    • Absolute Fan Boy says:

      Expert commentary on the latest news for 15 minutes and you think it’s “not a lot”?

      What bloody more could you ask for?

    • Anonymous says:

      OP was wanting a 35+ min weather channel style video. This video got to the point and fully explained the situation.

      If you are not satisfied with the info in this video, then thats your fault

    • Anonymous says:

      The OP is disappointed that there is not much there at the OP’s location in CA. He is disappointed a little that after waiting 25 hours for today’s blog update it did not include any Ian impacts in CA.

    • Stacy says:

      Just wow. World expert in hurricane tracking makes videos for free in order to explain it to non-meteorologists – while still providing tons of information above what we get from NOAA – and you’re disappointed? 😂😂😂

    • Donna says:

      2004: Charlie was headed for Tampa Bay.

      Levi said, nope. It’s gonna make a hard right.

      I beat everyone to the grocery store in Orlando by at least an hour.

      • Anonymous says:

        I’ve always wondered who grabbed all the waffles and ice cream.

      • Geoff PR says:

        “2004: Charlie was headed for Tampa Bay.

        Levi said, nope. It’s gonna make a hard right.”

        Tampa got very lucky on that one. The projected path was directly in the mouth of Tampa Bay.

        At high tide. Had that happened, most of south Pinellas county (St. Petersburg) would have been under water. Did I mention south Pinellas county was densely populated?

        The death toll would have been greater than Katrina when it hit New Orleans…

    • Scott says:

      That is rude of you! I think it’s good info.

    • James says:

      If you don’t like it, don’t watch it. For years Levi has provided excellent info in layman’s terms. I have followed him since his college days and put more trust in his updates than the Governments (NOAA and NHC).

  • Hoff511 says:

    Thanks Levi!

  • Dan says:

    Great job, as always, Levi. Appreciate it!

  • Anonymous says:

    Thanks Levi. Great info. Scary storm!

  • Jim says:

    I really appreciate the in-depth explanation of what is occurring. Thank you for the no-hype facts.

  • Elliott says:

    Thanks, Levi,
    Best info available as far as I am concerned.

  • Brian Teasley says:

    1) Great stuff Dr Levi, thanks so much
    2) I suggest a paypal donation button somewhere in addition to things already in place
    3) The NHC site has storm inundation maps.. that show mostly 1 to 5 foot storm surge possible in the tampa/st pete area. Latest update (2pm est) greatly REDUCED the threat of storm surge (due to more likely southernly track). This 1 to 5 foot prediction from NHC goes against the NHC “peak prediction” graphic of 5 to 8 feet which many media outlets are showing. I wondering what the difference is and/or who to trust

    • Anonymous says:

      Sometimes the difference is the datum. Some maps show inundation depth which is additive to elevation. Other maps show surge totals in relation to sea level or NAVD88. Also some of the NHC graphics are conservative by showing the ‘1 in 10’ chance of exceeding depth. Graphics other outlets show might be less conservative.

  • Lisa says:

    Thank you Levi for the great analysis!!!!

  • Stacey says:

    Ready here in Sarasota! I sure hope on the next update you say a different city name 😉

  • Tom says:

    Big changes from last night. Core is really tightening up. Next NHC update 1700. Can’t wait.

  • Terry Riley says:

    Easily the best analysis I have seen on this storm: concise without emotion. I really appreciate the information on the steering patterns of the other weather systems. Thanks for that!
    Any chance of increasing the frequency of these reports as the storm moves closer?

  • Brett says:

    Thank you! Clear and concise as always. Refreshingly absent of “spin” and generator commercials. The new web server is a big improvement. Load times are very fast here in South/East VA. Much appreciated!

  • Anonymous says:

    Great Suspense! And its not rigged! (Is it?)

  • chris evans says:

    excellent clear video.

  • Dave says:

    I live in Weston, FL. The traffic on Alligator Alley streaming east from Naples is really building. Don’t wait if you’re thinking of leaving the SW coast, folks.

  • Anonymous says:

    What’s the difference with Mesoscale models. Do those include ground based radar?

  • Brian Brown says:

    Your information is VERY much appreciated, Levi! Thanks!

  • Tombo Miller says:

    This is well articulated, but the info here on Ian 2022 is old. You can find past data like this on myriad websites.

    This reminds me of Charlie in 2004, except more predictable.
    With Charlie, which was supposed to go to Tampa, it took a hard right turn and spooled up into a fast moving Cat 4 in a few hours and steam rolled Porta Gunta.

    Our single family home near San Carlos & Summerlin in Fort Myers, with no hurricane shutters and shingle roof, sustained no damage – except for a small dent in a gutter. From a tree that went down which I wanted to remove anyway.

    Hurricane Wilma, which hit south in 2005, created more debris – but no home damage.

    So moral of the story is that hurricanes in Florida are a way of life. And the building codes, thanks to Miami-Dade County, are well in front of the climate change curve. And because the gulf coast of Florida has a lot of vegetation like Mangroves, I have zero concern about storm surge, winds and flooding.

    So follow local officials’ recommendations and try to relax. We’ve been through countless hurricanes before and live to see another day.

  • L McDonald says:

    Landfall! At Dry Tortugas. 9:22 pm EDT.

    First US landfall point.

    No one is recognizing it.

    • Anonymous says:

      Never been to the Dry Tortugas, I know it’s way west of Key West. But would like to go there someday. Not sure it’s part of the US, may still be a Spanish Island?

    • Geoff PR says:

      “Landfall! At Dry Tortugas. 9:22 pm EDT.

      First US landfall point.”

      You can’t count a small spit of land like Tortugas as ‘landfall’.

      “No one is recognizing it.”

      And, why should they?

      A technicality doesn’t count as ‘landfall’. A coastline is landfall…

  • Anonymous says:

    Anyone else following Ian in radar scope? I Havent seen doppler velocity like this since Irma. Not to mention a very solid eyewall structure since yesterday. Scared to see winds from the next hurricane hunter pass.

    • Anonymous says:

      The NHC has upgraded Ian’s intensity to 155 mph as of 6:35 AM, after recon found 160kt flight level winds. Scary stuff.

  • Andy says:

    As someone who has been through many of these, I would just like to wish Godspeed to anyone in the path.

    This is going to be devastating.

    Good luck and stay safe!

  • Sharon Peltier says:

    Levi, thank you! Been keeping up with you for years. Anxious to hear your update on Wednesday. You give so much information. Praying for everyone!

  • Anonymous says:


  • Anonymous says:

    Levi–Very much appreciate the steady updates. I’ve been encouraging all my friends to tune in.

  • Larry says:

    As a Floridian, Tropical Tidbits is my go-to site to get a thorough understanding of how hurricanes work and what influences it.

  • Scott says:

    Your such a blessing, Levi! You’ve taught me soooo much than I’d ever have understood about meteorology in general and hurricanes specifically. Thank you so much!

  • Mark says:

    Various websites are showing at about 4:30 pm EST the eye over Fort Myers/Punta Gorda with max wind speeds (gusts) of just under 100 mph along the shoreline with winds dramatically dropping off inland. Rainfall very intense along the shoreline (9-16 inches so far with Punta Gorda weather station at 20 inches) and again dropping inland to numbers of 2-4 inches so far. Good to see much lower wind speeds so far out of this storm than predicted. Expect more rain.

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